Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

THIS IS A QUOTE FROM PWCC

Great post. I agree with your suspicions that many more collectors are bidding like this today.

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

Sam, the 2016 run up involved plenty of cards in 4 and 5 figures. I'm not sure what's happening now -- I was quite sure back in 2016 because it was so obvious and pervasive -- I only note my skepticism when cards suddenly go off the rails.

This is certainly a possibility...as are other scenarios.

Yes, it's increased lately, and with more flowery language.


But the number of people who were expecting to put their kids through college on their holdings of 1990 cards was really large. And buying lots of 100 or 500 or more of the "can't miss" rookies was a thing in at least the early 80's.

I suppose I should send all the ones that got 4s from SGC to PSA. I might do really well.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=7483http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3319http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3318http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...pictureid=3317

I have spent time ensuring I didnt overpay to find the perfect card at the perfect price only to find out i waited so long... so perfectly that the prices went up that if i hadnt done so wrt to the price i would have came out ahead. Pull the trigger is my motto at this point on THE card. If you have to wait out the justification....eh. No problem. I am a collecter.

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

None of the above were collected by 50 year old + financially set rich men. Not many filthy rich dudes on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley were collecting Beanie Babies or match box cars.

Lajoie has seen insane price increases. It wasn't long ago that was an 85.00 card as a 1. Now you can't touch one under 200.00.

Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off.

The original statement was that it's only been in the "last few" years that cards have been considered and investment.


to me last few is somewhere around 5 years give or take maybe a couple.


Here's a pretty serious article about collectibles as an investment from 1999 sadly behind a paywall.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647019...n_tab_contents


Grading companies were started mostly to attract the guys with big money. Enough people wanted to collect, wanted quality, but didn't want to spend a lot of valuable time learning how to tell what was great and what was average. PSA got into it around 1990? 91?
So roughly 28 years ago.


From 2012, the toy boat collector in the article had been collecting for 30 years. And it seems wasn't exactly short of cash...
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/04/11/inve...ible-toys.html

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

Holiday Purchasing
 

Maybe someone is buying X-mas gifts.

Truth hurts sometimes.

I wish this was even a possibility. Sadly, I just miss out on a lot of great cards because others have deep pockets. I just focus on other things that don't get the attention.

Most of the mayhem seems to be around portraits. I'm guessing these high bidders are trying to anticipate the next green Cobb or something.

Pete...nm

This.
I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


Attachment 336663


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


Attachment 336664


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Those are very nice 5s, exactly of the sort I look for myself.

Paleocards, please know I was not knocking record holders. Indeed, I hold a few records myself. When you see you want, sometimes you just gotta go for it. That’s probably what happened with Mr Deep Pockets. But query whether he was bidding against another Deep Pocket or someone else with different intentions?

And I agree, I would take your cards all day long for half the price. You did well

Beautiful 5s!

Nice fat borders on those 2. The Johnson is particularly nice, congrats. Who knows, in due time they might look like bargains.

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

Haha...I tell you...it's a conundrum. I DO believe there may be a few wealthy collectors who don't care what they spend on some high quality old cardboard...they just pay whatever it takes to get what they want...it's possible. But on Cy young/Walter Johnson portrait t206's...it just seems a little too convenient for me as a way to rationalize the running up of certain cards just as was done a few years ago with high grade 50's rookie cards by a "group" of people in the hobby.

The first post was quoting Brent. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

Forget about cards Leon. Think of the hammer price of your thinking cap at auction. Where will you consign?

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

Right. In a market like this where people rely heavily on historical prices, you just need to be able to manipulate the price, not control supply. In 2016 plenty of people started to panic and pay insane prices for cards fearing they would go even higher.

One of my favorites, a Koufax RC in an 8 for 80K. Right.

http://goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.as...entoryid=33087

Even more disturbing was the disingenuous writeup.

Koufax.

Be Prepared for Return on Investment.

Koufax rookies are among the hottest cards in the hobby today. Demand is outpacing supply on a consistent basis and the market has reacted. Prices at auction continue to escalate provided the condition is at the highest level. And at a PSA 8, there aren’t many examples that exceed this magnificent offering. In fact, 15 PSA 8.5’s are known, to go with 22 PSA 9’s and 3 GEM MINT 10’s.

For the discerning collector or the profit-driven investor, this card should be an automatic. The Koufax rookie card’s climb has been as remarkable as Koufax pitching at Dodger Stadium on a hot summer day. We expect the day to come very soon, when Koufax rookies at PSA 8 will be selling well in excess of $200,000 and perhaps as $250,000. If you’ve ever contemplated a Clemente rookie, we strongly encourage you investigate this card.

I remember that write-up. Gotta say I like Bill, but this just feels slimy.

I was shocked to see that coming from him, honestly.

I wonder how many green Cobbs these guys had

Funny you mention Goodwin. I was just looking at his last auction and recalled the Ohtani card that sold for $184k. There appear to be limitless amounts of dumb money in modern; isn’t it plausible some of that could trickle into pre-war?

I don't necessarily believe everything I see.

I would love to hear from one person that has spent more than 100 thousand dollars on a card made in this century. Has anyone ever met someone or know someone who has done it?

What are you saying, that you don’t believe someone paid that much for an Ohtani? Who knows? Maybe it didn’t. But it did according to Bill Goodwin’s website. He has a fine reputation, right, so it must be legit?

Oddly enough, I went to elementary school with Vegas Dave who paid $400k for some Mike Trout superrefractor thingy. We are not even acquaintances, by the way.

You mean that every bid back to about $4000 is from a bidder who bids with PWCC either 100% or 97% of the time? Yeah, I don't think this one requires much thinking.

To quote one of the great American songs, "It ain't necessarily so."

You tell me.

7/31/16 eBay Image memorylaneinc n***n Best Offer $20,000.00
7/17/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions 4***4 18 $23,100.00
7/10/16 eBay Image probstein123 s***e 25 $25,205.00
7/7/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions s***l 52 $27,100.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Image 20 $80,625.60
6/12/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions a***t 33 $22,100.00
6/6/16 eBay Image dpingree i***r BIN $32,450.00
5/26/16 eBay Image smallstocks 9***8 BIN $20,000.00
5/23/16 eBay Image jrengstl 9***8 BIN $27,495.00
5/14/16 Heritage Image 20 $19,120.00

How does one validate the card was paid for?

Curious to hear someone say they bid that much and paid for it. Surely there must be someone here mixed into the masses.

The card was bid up and not paid for. That wasn't the only AH that this was done to.