this is probably wrong, i mean analytics is all about most of these things...ie the cubs' defensive positioning to suppress #3 and #4 of babip avg, the dodgers stacking 15 left-handed hitters against a rhp. these are meant to combat against some of the luck and randomness. don't know if you can ever quantify "clutch"...but there are stats about players' performance after the 7th in a game where run deficit is 2 or less, we're kind of getting there?

what computers can't analyze is the emotional impact of a hostile crowd in the brightest october lights and our physiological reaction to these stressors. in some of arod's postseason abs you can just tell he'd have no chance, or me personally with yasiel puig judging by his body language he's just gonna flail at 3 pitches with the bases juiced bottom of the 8th trailing 4-2...like he'd rather be in jamaica right then.

and this is where the analytics fanboy in me gets confused sometimes...by the number of course you'd rather have arod in there than slappy mcslap david eckstein or angel pagan...but just going by the eye test at least those guys won't shrink up and battle thru the at bat. that's where the great divide is atm and the 2 sides of grit/attitude vs. computer/analytics can't reconcile.

re: kershaw being hit hard in postseason...i remember most of his starts, can't recall many instances where he was really hit hard. i do remember him giving up a 2-run bomb matt adams bottom 7th in st louis pitching on 3-days rest where if the dodgers had a better bullpen he should've been lifted after 6...and that wacky game against wainwright where each SP gave up like 6-7 runs it was alot of dinks and dunks and people were wondering if the cards were stealing signs.

re: urias start at home vs cubs being comparable to a would've been start game 4 against washington. this is silly, totally different circumstances cubs are pretty good against lefties their best hitter is rh bryant vs a depleted washington roster where both their best bats murphy harper were lefties and the biggest rh threat was werth.

i'm not too result-oriented you trust the process/preparation and make the best decision in the moment with the data you have. a bad decision leading to a positive outcome doesn't mean you should repeat that mistake. i thought the complexion of the cubs-dodgers series changed on that agon out call at home...dodgers should've been up 1-0 with 2 runners on instead of what happened. but it wasn't a surprise the cubs finally woke up, i mean the dodgers are down to 2.5 good pitchers and the cubs are stacked.

I disagree with your conclusion, people into metrics understand all 4 are at play, they just focus on the one that can be measured. (and understand how the numbers point out the randomness and luck associated with the game, especially in small sample sizes)

confirmation and recency bias can skew your eye and opinion tho, this is why the numbers are best because they don't lie or care about situational opinions.

wtvr makes you happy booboo

Ugh, that Dodgers game. Spin time for Clayton post-season defenders, I guess.

Looking forward to the Series!

Should be fun!!!

2 can be easily measured in the case of Chokeshaw. How can such a talented player choke everytime in the postseason? 0-3 with an ERA over 6 in deciding games.

It's just small sample size booboo. :D

If kershaw wins the game hes the post season MVP (if they gave out an award today after the win) out of all players on all teams this year thus far so its not like this year was a black mark on his post season when his team won all but 1 of every postseason game he played in the postseason.

If you think kershaw post season this year was a black mark we were watching 2 different post seasons this year. '

Anyway, dodgers werent winning the game anyway scoring zero runs but if want to say its all kershaw's fault the kershaw haters will say that.

Hendricks gave up 1 run in 2 starts and he lost as many games in the Dodgers series as Kershaw did the entire postseason...

1 loss doesnt make a horrible postseason. (ask Mad Baum on the Giants) The cubs are a pretty good team (ask Mad Baum) , but maybe the Indians will solve that. We shall see

Next spinner?

tough critic. Kershaw's opposing pitchers in the cubs series gave up a total of 1 run in 2 games and Dodgers won 1 of those games. Tough to win 2 games when your team scores 1 run in 2 entire games.

You can't give up 5 runs in 5 innings. If he lost 1-0 then get on the offense (which was anemic almost every game) but he got shelled again, Mr. Spin.

right it not good giving up 4 earned runs in 5 innings. (7 hits in 5 innings against Cubs ) but he did also throw a 1-0 almost shutout on 2 hits as well in a game only he wins....its not like he sucked this postseason with the other 2 team wins on short rest and the save etc. If the post season results were like they were in the past like they were this year, he would be considered a good/great post season pitcher. Career not over yet, we will see..

if he lost 1-0 he still would of lost an elimination game, mr spin..

You are missing the point. If he lost 1-0 everyone would agree he pitched a great game. If he was 0-10 lifetime in the post-season with a 2.00 ERA nobody would be suggesting he had a post-season choking problem. The fact is he has pitched too poorly too often in the post-season to keep spinning his problems as small sample size, leaky bullpen, short rest, whatever.

His ERA this postseason was 4.44. Good thing he had the shutout! He did hit .286 they may want to use him next year as a pinch hitter.

right but this season isnt a black mark, thats my point which i think you agree..plus he did win 1-0 this year which isnt winning 9-4.....only he wins that game (harder to win 1-0 then win 15-0) which you said his performance was amazing i believe plus the only game out of 5 he appeared in that they lost his team scored 0. If he replicates this every year from here on out it the narrative will have changed and the needle has already moved.

if a 4.44 era means my team wins 3 out of 4 games i started and i also get a key save ill take it. Man only hitting.286 hitting, good thing he made an out last game who he would be batting over .300!

4.44 booboo. No, he needs to dramatically improve in the future to change the narrative. It's not about wins, it's about pitching well which more often than not puts your team in a position to win.

I think everyone would agree he was considered a major star in the dodgers/Nats series. He would of been given the mvp of that series or do you disagree. Noboday cares about era . Its about wins not era.

If you agree he was MVP of the Nationals series then obviously era doesnt matter.

His era was 3.00 in the cubs series and whip was .83 .who care about those good number he lost..

In addition Baez won NL series MVP against the dodgers and went 1-6 with zero runs/rbis against Kershaw.

Guess you didn't like Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young with a 13-12 record then. His 2.27 ERA was unimportant, right?

You talking about regular season where stats matter more. If you want to cite regular season, how has Kershaw done in the regular season

Plus how many post season games as Felix's team won when he pitched.


So you agree Kershaw would have won MVP for the national/dodgers playoff series...enough said..

..

Livan Hernandez won the world series MVP and his era was 5.27 , (whip 1.829) i guess era was really important there. His team winning i guess meant nothing. He didnt even pitch in game 7 of that series

at least he struck out 1 guy every 2 innings, oh wait that is bad too..

I could drop the mike after this post.

Dang...Jake is getting beat up here as badly as Kershaw did during the postseason.

Yeah i getting beat bad.. you probably the guy that says Trump/clinton did great in all the debates (maybe he/she did or didnt, i not have any political views to share, but showing you can say one thing but there are going to be people that disagree)


Also If you think ERA matters when Livan Hernandez won world series MVP with an over 5.00 era maybe the higher the better. His whip was 1.829 as well.

I dropping mike now, have a good rest of the weekend.

nothing funnier than watching ignorant people revel in their stupidity.

"I don't like book learnin, it's fer nerds, mama gimme another possum pecker sandwich!"

That's an argument ad hominem, no? :) Or is it ad ursum?

Ya dropped far more than that, sport.

Yeah dropping knowledge.. good one by the way!

Oh yeah? Just all you Dodger and Kershaw haters wait til next year! :p

I love Kershaw. The best pitcher of his generation and, from all one can see, a truly outstanding young man. I am just not deceiving myself into thinking he doesn't have a post-season problem.

If you think that a 4.44 ERA out of the guy who is supposed to be your best pitcher was good, then we were definitely watching different post seasons. That is what you would expect out of a #4 or 5 starter. It is bad when it is a future hofer.

Just gotta correct, Bum didn't lose in the LDS, he got touched up for 3 (all on Arrietta HR) runs over 5 innings, but the Giants eventually won 6-5 in 13 innings. Those 3 runs represented the first runs he's ever given up in an elimination game. His prior scoreless stretch in elimination games included, a 9 inning CG SHO in the 2014 WC game, 5 scoreless innings to close Game 7 of the 2014 WS and another 9 inning CG SHO in the 2016 WC game.

Add onto that a WS record that includes--- 8 SHO innings in the 2010 WS (as 21 year old rookie), 7 SHO innings in the 2012 WS, then in 2014-- 7 innings w/ 1 ER in game 1, a 9 inning CG SHO in game 5, and the 5 SHO innings to close game 7. It's pretty amazing in its totality. Kershaw destroys Bum's regular season statistics and he's a likely a HOF, but he doesn't come close to touching Bum's record in October.

there was nothing for you to correct. I never claimed to compare their past history in the postseaon.

i clearly was talking about this years postseason. If the Giants score zero in his last start than Bum loses and he was in line to lose. My post doesnt say he lost it notes that the pitching lines were very close for each of these big guys in their last games against the cubs. This thread has been about THIS postseason not being a black mark on kershaw's postseason.

Everyone seems to agree that Kershaw would of won MVP of the Nats/Dodgers series and Kershaw went 1-1 in 2 games versus the cubs in which his team scored exactly 1 run. Thats not remotely close to a bad postseason THIS year. There was no postseason problem for Kershaw this year is all i am saying. You are allowed to lose 1 game in 5 games (and be a big part in 4 wins, one of which was 1-0) and the 1 game you lose your team scores zero.

If any team scores no runs and their pitcher doesn't toss a shutout, he loses. Not sure your point.

BTW- Bum's ERA THIS postseason was 1.93 over two starts. IF we're allowed to use these "ifs"... if his BP can get 3 outs in the 9th of game 4, Bum may have another opportunity to go legend in game 5, as the potential first/last guy out of the pen after Cueto. That said, I think 1.93 in 2016 is pretty impressive in its own right.

Life is about opportunity. 1.93 era or not, Kershaw had a better postseason then Bum THIS year. Maybe if Bum had the chance, things could of been different. If kershaw pitched game 1 versus the cubs maybe things are different too but it doesnt matter. Going by the actual games pitched in THIS postseason kershaw did more.

The point I made about a team scoring zero runs, is that teams pitcher never had the opportunity to win the game. However if you think Bum was impressive this year, then not sure how you cant be impressed with Kershaw THIS year as well in the postseason. If kershaw sucked this year than so did Mr. Bumg.

Get off it. Bum is better in the post season bar none. He's been better in each and every post season of his career, 2010, 2014, 2014, and 2016, than Kershaw has been in any single post season of his career. Look it up.

Kershaw is a stud, but seems like you're going to ridiculously great lengths to argue something that just isn't there as far as his postseason legacy (this year, and career) are concerned. In about a week, Kershaw's 2016 postseason will be forgotten forever. Aside from a couple short rest appearances, there is nothing about it that will stand the test of time.

agree with most except in 2016. We will agree to disagree that Mad Bum had a better post-season than Kershaw in 2016.

rooting for clev...but cubs in 5.

man Kershaw has to be jealous of Hendricks...bases loaded when he leaves the game with one out and nobody scoring...thats 3 inherited runners his relievers prevent from going onto his era...... people focused on era will point to his 0.00 era now..but if 2 runs come its in the 5s...etc...

i think thats about has many inherited runners the dodgers relievers prevented from scoring in all of kershaw's career postseason appearances...


in a side note i think kyle kendricks is also jealous of kyle hendricks..

Cubs win! Cubs win!
 

- in spite of Joe Madden pulling Kyle Hendricks with a 5-1 lead.

IMO that was a huge blunder...but he got away with it.


I would not want Jon Lester on my team...that's ridiculous!

I know, I know- he pitched well - there is just NO excuse for a pitcher that is so well paid to be unable to make throws to first and just barely able to field his position at all.

I'm glad the Cubs won...in spite of all that.

I thought the same, but glad to see this morning the Cubbies won!

I stayed up until 10:30 figuring the Cub's would win it and was quite surprised to see what happened this morning watching the highlights! :eek:

What time (EST) did the game finish?

About 12:40 or so. So happy. So tired.
Drew

congrats to the cubbies, seems like a bunch of nice guys (besides chapman). epstein is the ring whisperer. maddon kind of went overboard with the "use your best reliever in the most leveraged situation". became a war of attrition there at the end and the more superior team won.

It's a reasonable theory, especially the part about not wanting to appear to be a bonehead (as a base runner). It's similar to the idea that, statistically speaking, your best chance to score with a free kick on goal in soccer is to kick it directly at the goalie. But just think how embarrassing that would be if the goalie didn't move.

Obviously once players started taking advantage of these counter-intuitive actions (in either case), there would be some form of adjustments made to offset them.

Playoffs coming which means adding to the legacy of kershaw Last year he was good in the playoffs...now this year is his time to be a legend

Who are you folks picking for the wild card winners?

I am going with Daimondbacks & Yankees!

Hope that happens. In fact, I'd love to see both of them return to the World Series.

I'd be hyped up for weeks.

Yankees v Dodgers World Series.

I am going with the Indians & Nationals in the series, picking Cleveland to win it all this year.

Cleveland over Los Angeles.

Another vote for the Indians!! Good luck tribe!!

indians over rockies. i look forward to wednesday when my bracket bust.

I'm superstitious, and am not going to try and predict anything, but GO TRIBE!

Cleveland wins a rematch against the Cubs.

That's what I'll guess also.

How about those Indians?!

4 HR. Some legend. 4.63 career post-season ERA as we speak. Yeah I know small sample size blah blah blah.

The only thing that takes the sting away from the Red Sox getting blown out is watching the Yankees blow a huge lead and lose in extra innings. I'm really excited for a Cleveland/Houston series, though. Should make for some great baseball.

Shelled in the 7th inning again. At least he is being consistent. 95 innings isn't a small sample size, it is half a season for him.

and add another W....how many starting pitchers in the playoffs this year have gone 6 + innings....he was fine. you are ok with the yankee starter in the twins getting blown as just a bad start..

stats dont matter when up 7 runs....rather have a 90% chance to give up 4 runs or less than a 50% chance to do that due to pitching around guys to keep your era lower in exchange for having more risk to give up the lead..........only 4 runs..one less its a quality start...you acting like he gave up 7 runs etc..

Another win...... one more win and he can be series mvp for that round if they gave those awards...(he would of won last years)

Its also yet another start when he left the game his team was winning.... hes on an amazing run.....livan hernandez won world series mvp and look at his era..... the whip was good for kershaw....1.263...you singling out one metric which isnt bad at all given the situation...

Plus its not like he gave up 4 runs and they were down 4-0......its when you give up the runs which is also important

duplicate

Giving up 4 runs (2 of which when your team is up 7-2 in the sixth inning) is far from being shelled.... he doesnt pitch the same if up 2-0 obviously... hes a team guy

If you want to see shelled...look at Grey, Greinke , T. Walker and a litany of guys this year in the playoffs..

hes still top 3 in the mvp of the series thus far in the dodgers/ariz series......if you are top 3 thats not shelled....by end of series he will be top 1-3...

Dodgers still on march to win it all.....feel free to criticize if dodgers are no longer playing this year..pointless to talk now...especially when kershaw keeps pitching in games his team wins.

That is perhaps the most ridiculous spin I have ever seen put on something. LOL. Stats don't matter when you have a lead. LOL. Yes they do because teams come back. He had yet another mediocre outing. I am sure he would tell you so himself. Period paragraph.

Same, but with Encarnacion out now, (imo) they will be in tough, unless their depth is deeper than I am aware of?

Edwin was the main reason I was, and am still, rooting for the Indians so I hope they can still get it done without him.

Last I checked Edwin wasn't toeing the pitching rubber. They'll be fine without him IMO.

They dont matter. Dodgers won period..and game was never close. You are biased. Especially when you look at this years playoffs he had one of the top 3 starts this year thus far. Times have changed. Pitching in the playoffs is a whole different animal now then even 10 years ago. Wait till series is over..but silly to comment when Dodgers are winning his starts, at least wait till comment if his team is losing. The dodgers care about wins not era. To say you dont pitch differently when your team is up 7 versus 0 is silly as well.

You can win world series MVP if you go 6.1 innings with 4 runs earned and win 3 starts. Heck Livan Hernandez won World Series MVP with a 5.27 era and a 1.829 whip with just 2 W's. Team wins matter obviously..and Kershaw's team won. Plus its not like he gave up 7 runs etc...

Ex post reasoning. And wrong on so many levels.

Agree to disagree..anyway, many games to go...he still has at least one more start coming in the playoffs..

I hope but when a team loses their top run producer, it isn't good news by any stretch.

I honestly don't think he'll be back. Although nothing concrete has come out yet as far as his status goes, I think it is going to be a little more than day to day.

Devastating loss as a Yankee fan. Teased us by blasting Kluber and then made us watch as our vaunted bullpen teased the game away. Cleveland capitalized on every mistake the Yanks made.

Oh well. The Indians and Astros were head and shoulders the best teams in the AL this year anyways. Should be a good series between the two.

A- they won because of their offense (and Justin Turner is obviously their MVP so far after one game)

B- Home runs are bad, the three things a pitcher can directly control are K's, BB's and home runs (which is why FIP is more predictive of future success than ERA) so, maybe you could make the argument that Roberts should not have brought him out for the 7th, but to try and say he pitched well is a false narrative

C- people are smarter about what matters in baseball now,stuff like pitcher wins aren't considered important any more so Livan wouldn't win MVP in 2017

He was shelled. Dave Roberts was just smarter than Don Mattingly and got him out of the game before he gave up 8. Kershaw is just too weak to finish what he started.

Our depth is deeper than you're aware of. The Indians are the deepest team in baseball, and it's a shame we can't carry 30-35.

First of all, EE is reportedly day-to-day. Finish off the Yankees today, and you can just let him heal. Second of all, his replacement is All-Star Michael Brantley at DH. You pick your poison there. You lose a power bat, but you add a .300+ bat. Think about this. The Indians lineup with EE is Lindor, Kipnis, JRam, EE, Bruce, Slamtana, LF/Gomes/Perez, Gomes/Perez/LF, Urshella. Now you plug and play Brantley in there. Regardless, you still have to get through 6 hitters before you face a lesser bat, and even Austin Jackson is batting around .300 and has hit in that 7 hole, so that would mean 7 formidable hitters before a lesser bat. Plus, Gomes hit the game winner on Friday.

eh..he coudl of pitched 6 innings and everyone would of thought it was a terriifc game and be taken out as well. How many starting pitchers in the playoffs this year have gone more than 6 months...everything is relative...if he was shelled than 90% of the rest of the aces were blaaaasted..

Right,,he could of been tired gong into the 7th...if he just goes 6 innings and score was 6-4 maybe he doesnt even come out for the 7th.....its not the same thing to give up 2 runs when up 5 versus only up 2 on the late innings.

Justin turner is mvp right now but series is not over...game 2 wasnt great for turner...so again like i said kershaw is top 3 still mvp wise. YOu can also say the Dodgers are winning because the other teams staters are still pitching worse than kershaw...arizona has a more potent offense as well

and for C- you say people are smarter about what matters in baseball now, well holding a lead is more important than era. We can all argue about 'what matters' but there isnt a clear line. Livan still wins MVP as well. Plus season isnt over for Kershaw yet....need to wait for year to end to judge...but if he wins every start...i not sure how that hurts his legacy even if era is 5 if hes a top starting pitcher in all of the playoffs...again people are smarter about what matters in baseball now. starting pitching in the playoffs is a different standard than regular season....if you disagree than its not so easy to say 'people are smarter about what matters in baseball now" I value helping your team win.. There are about 90 % of the starters in this years playoffs that could of lost the game that kershaw won....goin g6 innings and getting a large lead is worth a lot.....again its only 1 game....still more time to decide.

This is nonsensical rationalization.


Giving pitchers credit because they only gave up *insert more than 4 runs here* and won a game based on "preserving the lead" is silly, it's folly. Good pitching is good pitching. If a pitcher goes 6 and gives up 8 REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME, that was a bad start. No pitcher with multiple games that bad should win any individual awards for the postseason. Bad starts are bad starts, trying to make excuses for them based on the score doesn't work as an argument.



and the idea that Livan Hernandez won a world series MVP with this stat line:

13.2 inn pitched, 5.27 ERA, 7 K's, 10 BB's, 15 hits and 3 HR's allowed in 2 starts (where his teams won 7-4 and 8-7) is hilariously awful.Like, whoever voted for him was bad and they should feel bad.