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Aaron Judge -- how many will he hit, prediction thread
Get your number in before the start of the next Yankee game tomorrow at 7 EST. Winners get bragging rights.
I will say 58. |
57
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I am the optimist, 63.
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It's going to be a tough road ahead for him with the rest of the team hitting the way they are. No reason for opposing pitchers to not pitch around him.
Last 28 days Yankees are hitting .215 with a .619 OPS. That includes Judges .286/.450/.607/1.057OPS line during that same time span, so how wretched are those numbers without Judge? |
I thought things would start to get better once Stanton got back from his injury, but I forgot that Stanton needs about a month and a half to warm back up whenever he misses any time.
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56
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64
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61.....and on the last day of the season.
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59
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I'm hoping for 60...I just finished reading a Roger Maris biography and would like him to remain the 'Natural Home Run King' for a little longer.
I do not think that Aaron Judge has used any PED's, but I'd like for Roger to stay on top. I'm not going to get ugly about it, like the old Babe Ruth fans did..just would prefer it to turn out as I described. . |
62
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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59
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63
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58
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64
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60
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Get in your predictions before the start of tonight's game.
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64
Mike |
I'll go with 53, which would leave him only 20 short of Bonds' record of 73.
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Game is on, guesses closed.
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Speed Limit
55 it’s the law
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Well, the Yankees moved him to the lead-off spot and he hit number 52 and got two hits. Rest of the team got 1 hit and dropped another game while potentially being in the midst of what I can only guess has to be one of the greatest 2nd half collapses in baseball history.
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I don't follow the Yankees, but I am intrigued by how much their lead has shrunk on the Rays.
Are they really gonna to choke it away? They were up like 15 games at the All Star break. What is the reason? They'll still get in as a Wild Card, but momentum going into the Playoffs is the key to winning it all in the PostSeason. You go in flat, you won't last.........unless you have fairly dominant #1-2 SP's. Do they? Overall Dodgers probably taking it again, but injuries could change that. |
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Not to be a cynical Yankees fan...but it's looking ugly, and almost inevitable. It's not likely, but it probably wouldn't surprise me if they even blew a Wildcard spot. They have a bunch of all or nothing guys in their lineup...who, outside of Judge, has been mostly nothing since the All-Star break. Take Judge out, and they're hitting about .200 as a team for the last month and a half or so. Severino suffered another big injury, Nestor Cortes got hurt, and the Yankees traded one of their most reliable starters to the Cardinals, for an injured, glove first, little power, high strikeout 4th or 5th outfielder. Jordan Montgomery by the way, since being sent to the Cardinals for a guy who might eventually be a slight upgrade over Aaron Hicks: 5-0, 1.47 ERA, 0.927 WHIP BTW, they traded Montgomery after they already knew Severino was hurt and Cortes was going to run into innings restrictions very soon. They replaced him AND Severino in the pitching lineup by giving up a bunch of prospects to the A's, for a guy who had a 5+ ERA, pitching outside of Oakland. Frankie Montas is now 0-2 in 5 starts with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.519 WHIP...since leaving the sweet confines of The Coliseum. Oh, by the way, one of the "throw-ins" for Montas. JP Sears. He's already got 5 starts, while sporting a 2.63 ERA for the A's. I could probably go on and on. Not one of Brian Cashman's better seasons as the GM this year. I'm also saying this fully aware there's not many outside of the Tri-State area who are going to shed any tears for the downfall of the New York Yankees. :D:D |
He's already at 53. I hope he signs with Houston.
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Judge hit 53 and they finally got a good 5 innings out of Montas.
Judge got 3 of the Yankees 6 hits, accounted for both runs and had the only extra base hits for the team (HR, Double). I don't think I've seen as literal a version of a position player carrying a team on their backs, as I've seen from Judge this season. At least not in recent Yankee history. As the overall results have shown in the 2nd half of the season, it's not really sustainable. |
54 - he's gonna do it.
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He has a big payday coming real soon |
and that's #55
he's gonna hit 61 easily now, will he get to 62 (or more) is the question. |
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Judge is only 2 more home runs from 57, which would tie him with Gonzo and A-Rod for 15th best all-time for homers in a single season.
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26 games to go (6 of those in October)
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A shame there was only like 4,000 at the first game to see it.
I know it's a makeup game, but geez, you could have gone out and had a 1 in 50 shot to catch that Judge HR. You'd have a piece of history or I'm sure you could sell it if you wanted for a cool 10k-20K, maybe more if (when) he goes on to break the record. I checked the 1961 Yankees attendance, same thing there they had big crowds on the road, small ones at home late in the season. https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...e-scores.shtml Why don't the Yankees fans support their team and witness history in the process????? |
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Robbie, I'm going off of baseball-reference's list. JR hit 56 in 1997 and 1998. Hack Wilson also had 56 in 1930.
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Actually no one got 55.
If you watch closely 2 Yankee fans bump into each other going for it, what looks to be a man and a kid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-e_qXaWgUk Then it goes back onto the field. |
I just read and more interesting he has an outside shot of having 400 Total bases in a season which is a rarity (especially outside of the Steroid era).
Regardless of what he still does the rest of the way he has had an amazing season (look at the Lead in all the categories like HR's, RBI, and Runs vs the 2nd place person on each list) |
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I didn't want to start another Aaron Judge Homerun thread, but I will swing slightly off the predictions mode to ask:
When was the last time a player has hit at least 19 more homers than anyone else in the majors- as Judge (55) does over (Schwarber - 36)? Has it happened since the Babe was doing it with regularity? . |
56
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57
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I wish Bonds wasn't such a self absorbed prick and a steroid user, he really was a great hitter.
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58
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Just checked Judge's Home vs. Road splits, and they are shockingly similar all across the board, for anybody concerned Judge is having this great season solely from benefiting from Yankee Stadiums cozy confines. If anything he's very slightly better on the road.
Out of curiosity I checked the splits for Roger Maris during 1961, and his Home/Road splits were also pretty identical. Both of Judge's homers tied the game last night. 1st one in the 6th, 2nd one in the 8th, while the Yanks pulled it out in the 10th, thanks to Gleyber Torres's once every two games hit. Yanks had 8 hits in 10 innings last night. Judge had 3 of them with 2 homers and a Walk and 3 runs scored to go along with it. Amazing run he's on. I wonder the last time somebody has been on a run like this, with so little help from their team-mates. |
....he would have homered in the 10th had they not walked him.
His base on balls are really starting to increase too I believe.....but should still get to 61. Better not be a whimper of talk that Ohtani should get MVP, no way, no chance, any writer doesn't vote Judge, should be shot. Well that might be a little harsh.... ......maybe just pushed down a flight of stairs. Judge is carrying the Yankees single-handedly into the Playoffs. And I can't stand the Yankees, but I know what is right. I don't care what Ohtoni & Trout are doing in their garbage time meaningless games over on the West Coast. They folded during crunch time..........yet again. |
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At this point I’d vote for Judge, but Ohtani is not far behind. It’s a lot easier for Ohtani to rack up value as a both ways player. They definitely aren’t so far apart that dissidents would need to be shot for voting for the other.
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WAR loves Angels players as compensation for hating former Angels prospect Dante Bichette so much. :D:D
Ohtani is pretty great, but I can't for the life of me figure out how he has a nearly identical pitching WAR to Justin Verlander and Alex Manoah when looking at their stat lines next to each other. Is strikeout percentage ranked that much more important then nearly every other statistic on the stat sheet, including ERA, Whip and Innings load? As far as hitting. He's having an average J.D. Martinez type season as a DH. No, not one of his better seasons...one of his average seasons....except Martinez did actually play in the field every once in awhile, even if he wasn't very good at it. I get that nobody has done what Ohtani has done, as good as he's done it in a very long time. He's very good, but not great, at two different positions (one of which does not play in the field). This frees up the Angels to...maybe add one more roster spot near the end of the bullpen, or the end of the bench to add more depth. A player who likely wouldn't register as a blip on the WAR scale. Valuable sure, but arguable exactly how valuable on a team that has two of the most valuable analytical players in the league, and very little to show for it. It's very interesting...very impressive, etc, etc, etc......but can't wrap my head around how that's more valuable then what Judge is doing this year. BTW, I don't think the MVP race will be close. I think Judge will run away with it...but get ready to be bombarded by article after article from stat head contrarians whining about how badly Ohtani got ripped off from winning a 2nd MVP in a row. |
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I don’t Ohtani’s value comes in the sense that he saves a roster spot. It’s not that much more valuable to the team to have him as 1 man instead of 2 (ignoring the obvious: that the Angels can’t easily just go get a 2.55 pitcher or a 148 OPS+ hitter whenever they want), but when we measure a players overall value, that he basically gets to count twice is really tough to overcome. If you have a 2.55 ERA and a 148 OPS+, it’s hard to not be the most valuable player. Is Judge’s 61 point lead in OPS+ (or pick whatever of his amazing batting stats one likes) greater than also also being a 2.55 ERA starting pitcher? I’m not sure it is. I think I’d vote Judge if the season ended today, but I’m not sure he really produces more value. |
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Ohtani leads in ZERO batting categories.....and only 1 pitching category.....wild pitches.
Aaron Judge leads in 10 offensive categories (Home Runs, RBI, Walks, .OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, Total Bases, IBB, Runs). Judge has the Yankees in first place by 6 games in what may be the toughest division in baseball. The Angels were eliminated I believe at the All Star Break. Judge might win the Triple Crown (which has happened ONCE since Yaz in '67). He will tie or beat one of the Greatest records of All Time 61 Home Runs in a season. And you think Ohtani sniffs Judge this season, you should be shot!......or thrown down a flight of stairs.........or at least be egged by a bunch of neighborhood kids. |
So the fact that Ohtani fills two roles allows you to add the worst player on your team to your roster. How valuable is that when push comes to shove, I don't know how to quantify it.
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Ohtani has been amazing all season and he is highly valuable for his pitching and hitting both at such high levels.
Still Judge all the way however it would have been interesting if Los Angeles Angels were in first place how the conversation might go. But as it is Still Judge |
Ohtani is a step above Rick Ankiel
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Without Judge the Yankees would not be in first place and may not even make the playoffs.
With him they are in first place and will be playing in the post season. Without Obtani the Angels would be spending October playing golf. With Obtani the Angels will be spending October playing golf. Obtani is a good player but no MVP this year. Mike |
58, 59........
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4 for 5 with 2 HR's, a Double and a Walk.
I didn't think he had a chance in hell a month ago, but he's played his way into legitimate contention for the Batting title and a Triple Crown attempt. Yankees bullpen still doing their best to try and blow a comfortable lead in the 9th inning though. |
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Imagine a player that hits .212, mediocre defender, but a true expert on the basepaths. He probably gets a couple shots in the big leagues, but keeps getting sent down because he doesn't have the BA or fielding skills to stay on the bench. But, if you have the extra spot because Ohtani fills two spots, you have a guy that can start every extra inning game on 3rd base with no outs and can score on any fly ball. This is also true if you get a runner on second or third in the 8th-9th inning in a tie game or down by a run. It is very niche, but it could literally be a difference of 4-6 games over the course of a season. That is a WAR of 4-6 by virtue of the fact the alternative is not having that person at all. Alternatively, maybe you have a pitcher that gets lit up against righties, but is unhittable against lefties. Again, not versatile enough to take a bullpen spot on alot of clubs, but with one extra roster spot, you have a lefty closer that you can put into any game. That flexibility has tremendous value to alot of teams (especially a team managed well - not necessarily one that can't make September interesting with two players that may go down as all time greats). It is not just the ability to bring in a 4th string middle infielder off the waiver wire to keep the Gatorade and sunflower seeds stocked on the bench. |
Check out the pitcher and catchers reaction to #59. :D:D:D:D
https://www.mlb.com/video/aaron-judg...t-center-field |
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Amazing and will be an interesting end of season run |
60
tied Ruth next up Maris |
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Just missed a game winning homer in the Bottom of the 9th by 5 feet to straightaway center.
0 for 2 with 3 walks. Threw out the possible go ahead run in the top of the 9th with zero outs at 2nd base on a ball hit off the wall. |
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but he is also still leading the triple crown with his league leading average at .316 |
61
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A simple amazing year
And still in the triple crown race also Hopefully he gets 1 more |
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(ducks) |
No need for *
Barry Bonds is the record holder 73 .....and Mr Judge agrees with me. |
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*earned |
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