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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p><br />Yesterday's near collapse of Bear Stearns is, we are afraid, is<br />mearly the "tip of the iceberg."<br /><br />We believe that the recession of 08 could soon evolve<br />into the beginning of the next great depression.<br /><br />All the signs are there.<br /><br />What impact do you see on the baseball card and memorabilia market?<br /><br />We believe that post-war high grade cards will drop at least 35%<br />Common pre-war cards at least 25%<br /><br />As for the hobby's pricey true rarities, we expect very little movement<br />as the market is thin and the "major players" appear to be protected<br />from all but the blackest of scenarios<br /><br />What do you think?<br /><br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>I think it is 'merely', not 'nearly'...<br /><br />Other than that I think ya'll are about correct up there, Bruce. We're not there, but we're headed there.<br /><br />The Saudi currency is tied to the dollar. Oil is traded in dollars (but that might soon change). I drove across Texas twice just over a year ago. Rusty stuff was being cleaned off, new stuff booming. The oil price increases seemed to be good for Texas... hard on the rest of our country. I think this decline in the dollar was partly to deal with the Saudi's, and partly to held a certain segment of folks in our country.<br /><br />And before I get to my point, look at your Fed refund check if you get one, or at the $600 bail out check that comes in a few weeks... it will be on a bank in Austin, Texas. Golly, if I had a bank I'd be willing to pay the Treasury for the privilege of sending those checks out. 300 million americans, maybe 150 million $600 checks on average, that would be $90 billion. What would the interest be on 90 billion for one day? What if folks left their checks in the mail box a day or two? Or on the fridge until the end of the week?? A bank in Texas could make a lot of money on that.<br /><br />I think the financial wellbeing of our country was disguised about 4 years ago by a falsified housing/construction boom financed by subprime mortgages and the like. The financial woes of that are now apparent. I think things will become like Bruce says in a few months. And we'll eventually get out of it in a couple of years... maybe 3, after it has reached its low point. So bad times around election-time. And things will be better by next election-time.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Great Depression may be a bit severe. But should things get that bad, then of course the baseball card market will tank.<br /><br />In a Depression people lose their homes and jobs; who is going to care about little pieces of cardboard under those circumstances? But hopefully the economy will show a little more resilience.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Doug</b><p>I agree with what Barry said. I'm no whale (more like a neon tetra) so I've pretty much quit buying altogether. I don't see the super wealthy people having too much to worry about, but the regular guy has to be hurting right about now. I'm probably spending about $300 a month on gas anymore and that really starts cutting into the disposable income after a while.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>i wish the prices would go back to the way they were in the 70's and all the investors would get out and only the collectors who don't care about profit/$$$ would remain.there would be no more scammers making a buck selling bogus reprints, then,there would no longer be a need for the grading services as collectors don't need to be told the grade of their cards or if they are real. ...but that is not going to happen.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>Barry is right.<br /><br />And I'll wish along with Dennis... it would be nice.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Nowadays with inflation and the price of gas I had to put in my 4 cents instead of 2!! I have to agree with the group of 1. I think we will see some more softening in the mid to lower level collectibles. For what it's worth the fantastic items will continue to do well, imho. There just isn't enough supply of them and the folks spending 5 figures on 1 card aren't quite as affected....They are affected but it's not as life changing to them. America lives on credit too much and our National debt is a disaster. That coupled with the weakening dollar makes for a very poor economy. Almost daily I ask my wife, in somewhat amazement, how the people making 25k a yr with children can pay their bills? .....I have been harping on her about small stuff and yesterday I overheard her tell my 11 yr old that they didn't need to go cruising around as the cost would be $4 in gas just going to the store and back. I gave her a pat on the back for that one. I want her to be cognizant of money as I usually pay most of the bills so I can hide my card purchases and she doesn't see a lot of the family finances <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>....<br /><br />edited typo
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Yesterday's near collapse of Bear Stearns is, we are afraid, is<br />mearly the "tip of the iceberg."<br /><br />That sounds about right to us. Bruce, sorry about this next opening line but I couldn't resist:<br /><br /><b>We feel that whilst the subprime mortgages may be the beginning of a downward spiral there are more economic ills to be illumend.</b> <br /><br />Many speculators, common everyday people, were jumping on the real estate bandwagon only to find out that the wheels were coming off as they were getting on. Now it's going to be time to pay the piper. We have a government that believes in artificially propping up the sagging real estate market rather than just letting it find it's own natural bottom. Throwing good money after bad is not a wise decision. They will prop up the housing market for a short while but the bottom line is trying to qualify a person for a loag these days. Salaries have not increased proportionally to housing prices so either the home prices have to come down or salaries will have to escalate. <br /><br />It will be interesting to find out how much "credit" is out there and how this "credit" will be repaid as fuel, energy and food prices increase. Default, default, default, bankruptcy, bankruptcy and bankruptcy... who pays for all of that? If someone has a $100K credit line (which was used to pay for all kinds of things) and they default on the payments then WHO gets to pick up the tab?<br /><br />Ok, so what's the price of tea in China got to do with baseball cards? Nothing, but the economic whoas of our country will definitely take a peice of our discretionary spending cash away from baseball cards. - BUY LOW and enjoy. <br /><br />I tend to think that the rare stuff may come out into the market but you have to figure that if your so bad off that you can't buy the cheap stuff, there probably isn't much way for you to buy the high end stuff.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>While I agree that the very rich will not be as affected by a worsening economy, many people who sink hundreds of thousands of dollars a year or more into baseball cards may choose not to, even if they can. Many of the mind-boggling prices we've seen over the past few years are based partly on buyer exuberance; that it doesn't matter what you pay for quality because it can only go up.<br /><br />But with that bubble burst, many of the big spenders may see this as a time to take a break. Of course, it can also be a good time to buy low and sock some cards away. So in the end, you can't generalize. People are going to do whatever they feel is best.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Guys, don't kid yourselves. The very rich will be getting pounded financially very soon. Bear will be the first bank to go and the rest may follow. It will be very, very ugly soon.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>David Simon</b><p>Another way to look at it is, everyone is finding out that they had a lot less money than they thought they had. The only thing missing from the last recession in '91 is the President isn't raising taxes. That would cause the crash down. I don't envy the incoming President.<br /><br />Like the rest of the market, now is not a bad time to be 'short' and be selling. You can always buy the cards you want on the 'dip' and get a great discount in the next 12-24 months.<br /><br />ds
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jason Duncan</b><p>I disagree. I think now is a good time to be buying. There are alot of good deals out there in the midgrade market. I would stay away from high grade material for now. I think the economy could get alot worse, but it will not get that bad. Prices will adjust and move up soon. <br><br><br>Jason
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>rob</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />The US Govt will not let any of the large banks fail.<br /><br />Rob
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Bear Stearns will cease to exist shortly. The govt can only do so much. The Depression occurred despite governmental intervention.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>rob</b><p>Jeff, I was more referring to your "others will follow" comment. The largest US banks, i.e. citibank, jp morgan and the like will not cease to exist.<br /><br />Rob
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>JP Morgan seems to be holding its own. But Bear and its assets will soon be sold off. If money disappears, the banks disappear as well. Washington Mutual has about had it. While some banks will remain, more failures will follow.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>I think the economy is in <i>significantly</i> better shape than the media (and many of this board) portray it. And I think talks of a depression and an economy that will tank over the next 6-9 months is exceptionally overblown.<br /><br />Marc
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jason Duncan</b><p>Marc S. <br><br><br>You summed up exactly what I wanted to say. Our biggest problem in America is the MEDIA. It is our own worst enemy.<br><br>Jason
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>steve</b><p>On ebay I missed a GREAT looking T206 Cobb bat on PSA 5 with no tilt, full borders and near perfect centered - it went for $2450.ish - great value on a high end for the grade card. These were up to $2800. while back.<br /><br />And I picked up two T206 Johnson portraits PSA 5's for $1450.ish each - while ago they were upwards of $1800.<br /><br />Buy low - Sell high.<br /><br />Keep to vintage high demand clean items of upper tier major HOF'ers.<br /><br />Be able to have 5+ year holding period.<br /><br />Will have big smile on face years down the road.<br /><br />steve.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Andrew</b><p>Yup, put me in the contrarian camp...it's the "sky is falling", media negativity snowball that will get us there, and without such fanning of the flames, the scenarios of which you speak might not even occur. A true "Depression", really? On that note, the financial press here is much less dramatic. I was recently in Asia and the analogies and word choice use by the English accented reporter used were just hilarious, over-the-top "sell the farm", "batten down the hatches" type commentary. <br /><br />I'm sure many of you are waiving your finger (when it's not clicking the remote between Fox News and MSNBC) with gloom and doom. Sorry, I didn't jump too high when threat alert was Orange and I didn't don the gloves when opening my mail during the Anthrax scare.<br /><br />...if I'm dead wrong, then I'll be sure to sell my cardboard before heading to the soup line.<br><br>"Take your life in your own hands and what happens? A terrible thing: no one to blame." -- Erica Jong
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Larry G</b><p>Negative Attitudes only give way to more negativity but here are some facts:<br /><br />Where there are economic problems, someone if not many are already thinking past that and making decisions for the future.<br /><br />Our government, love them or not , will NOT allow retail major banks to fail but investment banking firms such as Bear, Goldman etc. serve no general retail purpose and are not FDIC insured on many financial issues so they have more exposure but bank stocks are VERY LOW and pay dividends. It is true that larger weaker banks may be bought out or merge.<br /><br />Older, nice visually appealing Baseball Cards especially stars and classic sets like R319, T205, t206, T202 etc...grades 4-8, will always be bought in mid grades because demand by the masses of collectors is less risky, supply will always be less than demand as long as there are no natural disasters and has possibly of upgrade. Very high priced high end pre war and post war cards which have a more affluent but limited market can fluctuate especially HIGH GRADE commons. Still there will always be residual value(20-40%) off current market pricing and is facilitated by high volume dealers and bargain hunters.<br /><br />A Boston Garter common or E107 common or T211 Red Suns etc....or other obscure "toughest" issues which are RARE but very high priced and limited in supply and limited on how many collectors actually collect those could fluctuate just as readily as a PSA 8 1953 Bowman Mantle or a 1954 Topps Banks Rookie but still will always find a home.<br /><br />Lastly- There is little chance the Great Depression of 2008 can facilitate as long as level headed decision makers and the educated public realizes that hard work and ethical workers, especially service and craftsman are always in demand. The future may show that those that actually add something to society instead of the manipulators of numbers and investments will be able to weather any storm since they have skills. It will be tough for those that fell prey to the housing manipulations that were allowed to prey upon the innocent by a handful of unscrupulous institutions and mortgage bankers or those that simply want to roll over and complain.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>The media may in fact exaggerate some of the problems we are having, because negativity does make for a good story.<br /><br />But that aside, there are really some serious things going on. Gold topped $1000 an ounce yesterday. Oil is $110 barrell. Does anybody want to blame the media for that?
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>If you have the cash, now and the immediate future would be a very good time to be buying.<br /><br />Moi? I'm too busy paying off 500.00 oil bills I get every 2 weeks.<br /><br />Steve<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Todd Schultz</b><p>I'm with Barry. Although I cannot stand the American Media and might even consider them a bane in our society, the signs are either there or getting there. Here in the Southwest, the problems are very, very real. Things don't move much in election years either--people hedge, wondering what type of administration will be coming on board. I can't see things turning back to the good before mid '09 at the earliest.<br /><br />As for the hobby, I believe alot of us are in it for the long ride, or at least not the short term. Whatever happens to card values over the next two-three years is of little import to me; actually, I would benefit by falling prices, assuming I can actually make some money to spend on cards <img src="/images/sad.gif" height=14 width=14>
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Dan Bretta</b><p>I think this thread is depressing. While I would love to see baseball card prices tank I certainly don't want to see our economy tank. If the two are tied together I'll root for the economy to recover even if it means I can't afford the cards I want to collect.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Larry G</b><p>Barry- For those two conditions blame:<br /><br />A war that costs the US billions a month, almost a trillion this year....a government that fails to address our tax dollars should be spent HERE first to improve our country. We started this job, why do we not control the oil supply from there and give us a DEEP DISCOUNT to offset the costs of preserving their democracy!<br /><br />Gold manipulators inflating the prices because the media does add fuel to the fire..lets face it gold is a "perceived value"..you cannot eat it, only so much jewelry you can wear and is barely used industrially...<br /><br />land and commodities are far more valuable, banks finance these necessities....gold is only 3000 years a head of baseball cards, both are non corrosive and a metal or cardboard, period.<br /><br />oil is a necessity but if we release some of our billions of gallons of reserves to "flood oil in the market", we could drop the price $20 a barrel in one day and let EVERYONE use 50% less gas and plastic starting......NOW as Kramer says! Drive less, turn down heat, air , lights, then the speculators and oil suppliers can drink their products...wait, they may start buying water futures!
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Larry- agreed.<br /><br />The money dissipated on the war will set us back a generation. And the value of gold is mostly based on the emotional climate of the world, and right now people are nervous, both the big fish and the pond scum. There will be some difficult times ahead, there is no way around it.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>CoreyRS.hanus</b><p>Forgetting for moment about the ills in the real estate/credit markets, what about the astronomic increase in cards over the past several years? No market can keep rising at such stratopheric rates without having a correction. And typically the greater and longer the increase before the correction, the greater the correction. So then it seems to me that two forces might be at work on depressing card prices, the worsening economy AND the fact that a correction in the card market is long overdo. In the next month or two several major auctions will be taking place. It will be interesting to see how they do.<br /><br />Finally, I do not share the pessimism that we are about to undergo a depression. Recession yes, depression no. The only good thing though, to come from all this is that FINALLY people are seeing the need to regulate the credit markets as regards to real estate lending, much as in the wake of the Great Depression people recognized the need to regulate the securities markets. Being in the real estate business, I can tell you that some of the transactions that took place were outrageous, and it is unfortunately the case that people are not knowledgable enough to look out for their own affairs. Regulation is needed (and that is coming from a guy who is a staunch conservative in regard to economic policy).
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>If there truly is a "depression" looming (which I think is being dramatic) and one's livelihood is not baseball cards, then who really gives a crap? Don't we have bigger things to worry about?<br /><br />Let's just hope for the best.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p><br /><<<oil is a necessity but if we release some of our billions of gallons of reserves >><br /><br /><br />Billions? we currently have 700 million barrels, (in the Strategic reserve) or enough for about 2 months of use. We currently use betwen 11 and 12 million barrels a day.<br /><br />What we do have is oil shale but it is not yet worth it to get the oil from the shale.<br /><br /><br />Steve
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Mike</b><p>I'm I missing something. Why is 1% of the mortages having this much effect on the total picture ? Please explain. There has always been foreclosures and now their is more , but how much more ? About 99% of us still are paying off the mortage or already own a house. Again please explain.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Corey- funny, the real estate market was not properly regulated, and the baseball card market is almost entirely unregulated ( I will say that getting a card slabbed by SGC is the closest we have come as industry to keeping things honest).<br /><br />Is it possible baseball cards may be heading for the same fate as real estate?
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>paulstratton</b><p>A Great Depression? Doubt it. I think we have evolved just a little bit since the late 1920's. It's a world wide marketplace for all commodities now, it wasn't that way even 10 years ago. We thought competition was a good thing? Guess not.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>We are the problem. Voters that continue to elect weak politicians on the basis of "what they will do for you" are to blame for the mess we have. And it is a mess.<br /><br />I hate to say this but the USA has put ourselves in a difficult position. The weakness of the dollar is a national embarrasment. People all over the world are changing their savings accounts out of USD into their national currencies. With the USD weakness two critical things will happen over time - our businesses will be bought by foreign companies, and we become laborers to the world instead of the capitalists of the world - and US based businesses will find it tougher to expand overseas due to costs. Both of these are things that happen slowly over time and both reduce our standard of living over time.<br /><br />We continue to spend on social programs instead of investing in infrastructure. We spend more per pupil than any country in the world, yet have mid tier education system because we bend over backwards for the teacher's unions. We allow unfair trade, Europe imposes VAT taxes on all imports - guess what that really is - its an import duty. We don't impose any import duties on their goods and services. We've helped Brazil pass us by in agriculture, allowed our steel industry to become second rate after 3 decades of other countries subsidizing their industries, imposed stupid immigration rules that discourage the best and brightest from attending US universities, and we just funded about 35,000 French and German jobs with a 40 Billion award for a fuel tanker - Does anyone really think its better for a French and German company to develop the technical expertises to do this rather than an American company? <br /><br />The simple truth of the matter is that Social security needs to be cut by 30%. Means testing for those earning more than 50K. Medicare also needs to be cut by 30% and the harsh truth is that some people will go without healthcare. This year, public sector employees passed private sector employees in average pay - that is simply not sustainable in a capitalist society and Government employees need to receive pay cuts and benefit reductions.<br /><br />The investment from the foreign wealth funds are just the beginning. We are being taken over financially year by year. And the end result will be much less opportunity for our children and grandchildren.<br /><br />If it all sounds bad - on a macro level it is. It shows what weak leaders along with an unengaged public can lead to. Soon the same type of austerity programs we used to insist on through the world bank as a condition of countries receiving loans will be imposed on the USA! <br /><br />We actually need to stop lowering interest rates, accept that we have a recession. Stop spending hundreds of billions helping out empty MBA suits, cut social programs and start standing up the the USA in trade. Inflation on top of our current situation will really push us further down the slippery slope. The only bailout that should happen should be for people over the age of 50 living in a home worth less than 300K who refinanced their mortgage and its obvious they were "hoodwinked" by a slimy salesman. Everyone else will have to bear the burden of their stupidity or greediness or whatever.<br /><br />We have been poorly represented by our politicians and have poorly represented ourselves by continuing to believe the unbelievable in electing them again and again.<br /><br />Sorry for the long post - to answer the original intent of the post - pre war card prices are going down - average of 50% by mid 2009.<br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>"We spend more per pupil than any country in the world." WRONG as to California, which ranks lower than a lot of underdeveloped nations. As for teacher's unions (and no, I'm not in one)- that's not the problem. The problem is putting inept teachers in administrative positions and over-funding those. Teachers remain the most important profession which is grossly underpaid.<br /><br />"We have been poorly represented by our politicians and have poorly represented ourselves by continuing to believe the unbelievable in electing them again and again." TRUE (to a certain extent).<br /><br />"A war that costs the US billions a month, almost a trillion this year....a government that fails to address our tax dollars should be spent HERE first to improve our country." YES!<br /><br />"Gold manipulators inflating the prices because the media does add fuel to the fire." Not true. Gold and other similar commodities have proven their value over thousands of years and hypothetically, if paper becomes useless, precious metals and similar commodities garner much more in trade. "Land ...is far more valuable." Not these days.<br /><br />"I'm I missing something. Why is 1% of the mortages having this much effect on the total picture ?" I'm not familir with the 1% figure, but in some areas, that figure is drastically higher.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I predict that in the next couple of years we will be surpassed economically and militarily by Belgium.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>steve</b><p>I am not that old, but old enough to see a few presidential elections.<br /><br />Going into last election with Kerry, I would have bet the house on a landslide democratic victory - a would be end to the Iraq waste of effort, money and lives.<br /><br />More than any other election, I was STUNNED !!! to see the electoral votes come in from across the US heartland. Could not believe what I was seeing with all the Bush electoral wins.<br /><br />I think I even shed a few tears, could not believe the US people actually voted this guy in a second time - SHOCKED!!!<br /><br />steve
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>"Our biggest problem in America is the MEDIA. It is our own worst enemy."<br /><br />Yeah. We should just believe whatever Dubya's press secretary tells us.<br /><br />Happy days are here again.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I just read this thread and traded all my cards for a truckload of cigarettes and chocolate. When this all goes down, I want something that will retain its value.<br /><br />-Al
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Al- chocolate melts. That's a high risk investment.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Mark Holt</b><p>Damn, so you're the one that outbid me on the cigarettes Al.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Al-<br />How about porn?
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>paulstratton</b><p>You just had to go and steal my Belgium pick. I'll go with Luxembourg instead.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Barry:<br /><br />No way chocolate melts in my house. My wife won't let me turn the damn heat above 60 at $3.50 a gallon for propane.<br /><br />Porn is a good idea, though. Porn is always a good idea.<br /><br />-Al
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Richard Masson</b><p>I am not sure a public chat room for baseball cards is the proper venue for this discussion, but I will say that in my experience, things are never as bad (or as good) as they appear. Financial institutions are highly leveraged (banks, investment banks, etc.) and there is not one of them that can withstand a "run on the bank" like what faced Bear, Stearns this past week. Remember there are two kinds if insolvency: balance sheet insolvency where liabilities exceed assets (the entire banking system in the early 90s, for example) and cash flow insolvency (what do you mean my money isn't in the safe? I want my money now!). As best I can tell, Bear is facing the latter. It's assets will be liquidated or its business units sold, liabilites will be settled, and that will be that. Perhaps the same fate awaits Lehman or others. We'll see.<br /><br />The mechanism by which problems with subprime home loans translate into bigger problems is through a relatively new invention called collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. There are many places where you can find out how these work, but to cut to the bottom line, the very riskiest pieces of CDOs (which will probably collect nothing) were pooled together and debt was issued against them which was erroneously rated AAA, but which will probably also collect nothing. Ownership of this debt is pervasive because AAA rated paper historically never defaults, let alone incurs losses. When the music stopped, many large institutions were left holding the bag. This translates into issues in the broader economy because those with losses are reluctant to lend more money to anyone else, even creditworthy borrowers; instead, they become focused on shrinking their loan base. <br /><br />Do not despair. The beauty of our financial system is that we recognize losses pretty quickly and move on (unlike, say, Japan). What emerges is a stronger and more competitive system.<br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>"Medicare also needs to be cut by 30% and the harsh truth is that some people will go without healthcare."<br /><br />You volunteering, 'Bucs?
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>Thanks, Richard. That seems like a pretty sound and level-headed analysis. Particularly that last part of the first paragraph.<br /><br />Umm, wanna buy some chocolate?<br /><br />-Al
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Bruce Babcock</b><p><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/uffda51/18871890n172oldjudge/N172NichollBCcrop.jpg"><br />One Nicholl.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>I can't believe there has been no mention of China. They're in a buying mood -our debt. <br /><br />We needed to change our buying habits years back. This house is full of low-value plastic sh1t from China... Our kids are screwed
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>What this country needs is a good five-cent Nicholl.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Bruce- any time Nicholl is available for a nickel, please don't hesitate to call me first.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p><br />"We spend more per pupil than any country in the world." WRONG as to California, which ranks lower than a lot of underdeveloped nations. As for teacher's unions (and no, I'm not in one)- that's not the problem. The problem is putting inept teachers in administrative positions and over-funding those. Teachers remain the most important profession which is grossly underpaid. <br />---------------------------------<br />Since I'm often wrong I thought I'd look up the actual numbers instead of relying on my often faulty memory.<br /><br />On this occasion I believe that I'm correct. I used OECD data through 2005 and overall the US leads all nations on expenditure per pupil. If you only measured primary education we are second to Switzerland. What was also interesting was the US summary from the 2005 report:<br /><br />SHOULD THE UNITED STATES WORRY ABOUT ITS EDUCATION SYSTEM?<br />There are causes for concern in the United States’ education system. The advantage it had over other countries of much higher completion rates of upper secondary education and tertiary education has been eroded.<br /><br />The higher education system in the United States remains strong, at least in its reputation which is all that is measured internationally and at least for its elite institutions. The United States’ economy continues to derive a relative advantage in innovativeness from the research conducted in its universities.<br /><br />The quality of the learning of 15-year-olds in the United States, particularly in mathematics and problem solving, are well below those of many European countries and also Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. With its relatively high expenditure and its relatively low student achievements at<br />the school level, the United States education system is clearly inefficient.<br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Addie_Joss</b><p>I don't think intelligent people will let the mismanagement of one company scare them into thinking the end is near. When ENRON went down you didn't hear any talk of a depression. Besides, I hope that baseball card values go down the toilet for a while so I can amass a super collection and sit on it till the end of time.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>"Medicare also needs to be cut by 30% and the harsh truth is that some people will go without healthcare."<br /><br />You volunteering, 'Bucs?<br /><br />-----------<br /><br />Actually, I already live in this environment. I live/work overseas in various countries for many years and I'm not covered by the local health care system for anything more than basic local (less than what we would consider acceptable) treatment. My company sponsored international health care coverage doesn't cover a specific medical condition that I have (which is a periodic recurring expense sometimes as much as 30K in a year - sometimes zero). So I make choices about when/what type of expenditures I will make. The harsh reality of life is that health care is just like other commodities - it has a cost and is limited - its more emotional and the advancement in technology allows us to make choices not available 20-30 years ago (which we often forget).<br /><br />And I can say that our healthcare payment system is screwed up. If you have insurance (and therefore at least gainfully employed), you pay $100 charge to the hospital for procedure A. If you don't have insurance (and therefore probably on the lower rung economically), the same procedure will cost you $500. The difference is that the hospital has made up the stupid $500 charge to negotiate with insurance companies - and settled for $100 - but have to charge others the $500 so that they can keep negotiating with the insurance company. Brilliant!!<br /><br />So yes I've already volunteered. I guess what my statement should say is that some will go without government supported health care. <br /><br />Its an emotional subject without easy answers. But the economics around it are very easy to understand.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>John</b><p>Furthermore we think this whole thread is pointless, how anyone can be so simple minded to even compare the horrors and tragic nature of the great depression to silly pieces of paper called baseball cards is beyond me. Below are some pictures to visualize…<br /><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/small/honus.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/small/1143205064_l.jpg"><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/small/1164825155_l.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/websize/Mr%20Mint%20Carnie.jpg"><br /><br />------Baseball Cards------<br /><br /><br />----VS.----<br /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/shack.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/nybank.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/image44.jpg"><br /><br />------Great Depression------<br /><br />Short of the Al Rosen image one can see that a great depression might be a bit more scary. If there is in fact a next great depression on the rise, speaking for myself I have bigger things to worry about such as food, shelter, my family’s well being and my employees. The luxury of buying a Plank & Magie or filling tough slots via REA goes out the window, let alone the ups and downs of a baseball card market. <br /><br /><br /><br />In fact Bruce you may even have to hold back on calling “Dial 7” limo service from your 2 bedroom apartment/office to meet us for dinner in NYC.<br /><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/small/FatNerd.jpg"> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/Dial7_2.jpg"><br /><br /><br />By the way the next NYC dinner is below if the next great one is upon us, Jeff has already agreed to serve soup and has warned Leon one bowl per person!<br /><br /> <img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/websize/Cfreefood.jpg"><br /><br /><br />Do these people look like there are upset over there collectibles? Contrary to your belief Bruce the woman in the photo isn’t upset that her 1933 Goudey high grade collection is down 20%. It might have something to do with starving to death, no house and the loss of everything but hey I could be wrong perhaps she was a huge Dizzy Dean fan…<br /><br /><img src="http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn3/junkforumimages/great_depression_photograph.gif"><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Do not despair. The beauty of our financial system is that we recognize losses pretty quickly and move on (unlike, say, Japan). What emerges is a stronger and more competitive system<br />------------<br /><br />I agree with the fact that we react to the losses much sooner than other countries. But we need to look at what the reaction has been. Lowering interest rates in combination with increasing the money supply will just reward those that took the risks in the first place and send the message that its ok to go right ahead and take the same type risks again!! And the impact to the USD is very damaging. <br /><br />Our standard of living is in decline due to the USD steep decline. In 2002 (or thereabouts) it was .82 USD to 1 Euro.....now its 1.57 USD to 1 Euro. We are almost 50% worse off!!! In 6 years!!! Combine this with our budget deficit, our consumer debt (first time ever homeowners own less than 50% of their homes?), and our trade imbalance and I conclude that the gravy train is coming to a stop. We have hollowed out our industry, banks used to constitute 5% of the S&P 500; now I think its 25%. Thats just funny money in my book - perhaps I'm too old fashioned but pushing money around doesn't create wealth.<br /><br />The foundation is cracked and an overhaul is needed. If you combine this with the fact that during the same 6 years we've made it tougher for the best and brightest to come to our country (to study and work)....and perhaps this time around isn't going to be the same - already this is the worst economic response to Fed interest rate declines in the past 50 years (at least thats what I read in the economist the other day).
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Aaron Patton</b><p>"....the woman in the photo isn’t upset that her 1933 Goudey high grade collection is down 20%".<br /><br /><br />simply hilarious
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>What the banking industry needed was slabbed mortgages. Before the execute a mortgage, or buy or resell one, they have to get it slabbed. An SGC or PSA mortgage should be fairly reliable and solid, most of the time. Maybe a Beckett mortgage. Most any other type of slabbed mortgage would be suspect.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Frank,<br /><br />I would always wonder about the PSA slabbed mortgages. In the back of my mind I'd always ponder the thought that the PSA slabber "over valued" the slabbed mortgage just a bit. I'd also be concerned that the PSA slabbed mortgage could be returned to PSA for a second opinion valuation that only went up and never down. Not only that, what would happen if the PSA mortgage slabber was looking at the item to be slabbed for a buddy? Our whole financial system would collapse if PSA were allowed to slab mortgages. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>I never thought you and I would endorse "slabbing"....but, you are absolutely "right on".<br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>Our economy had been "perking" along just fine, until this so-called "Sub-Prime" problem surfaced.<br />Then the "media" jumped on it and did their usual "doom-n-gloom" rabble-rousing. The actual num-<br />bers of the homes in possible foreclosure situations are approx. 1/1000....that translates to 0.1%.<br /> And, the media is crying "woe are we". Let's get serious, people, the media and the oppsition party<br /> will always "TALK DOWN" the economy, irregardless of its status, during a national election year.<br /><br />The main criteria for a "depression" or even a "recession" is the employment numbers. This country's<br />employment force is 95% WORKING....let me repeat....95% WORKING. That translates into 140 Million<br /> employed.<br /><br />To put everything in the proper perspective, during the Depression, the US was suffering with 20-25%<br /> UNEMPLOYMENT.During the late 1970's (the Carter "malaise" years), unemployment was approx. 10%. <br /><br />The 0.1% homeowners (mostly in California) that are facing foreclosures have either been irresponsible<br /> or have dealt with irresponsible lenders.<br /><br />The current OIL crises that we are experiencing was predictable, because we (our politicians) have re-<br />lented to the idiots who will not let us dig our own Oil within the territories of our own country. We just<br />have to show the rest of the world that we are going to get serious about mining our own Oil; and, I'll<br /> guarantee you that this will drive the price of Oil down. It might take years to implement our Oil mining<br /> facilities; but, it will instantly alter the thinking of the Oil producers throughout the world.<br /><br />T-Rex TED
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p>Dear John<br /><br />You should double check your facts<br /><br />(1) Next time you post a picture of your girlfriend on the floor<br />of your residence, please ask her to dress properly<br /><br />(2) We have never used Dial 7 Limo<br /><br />(3) We are not invested in the market<br /><br />(4) In fact the woman in the last picture was worried about her<br />1932 US Caramels, not her 33 Goudey;s<br /><br />(5) Ultra high grade rare cards much like the best impressionist<br />paintings, are the least likely area where prices will be affected.<br />Note: Please be assured we are not stating that Four Base Hits<br />are equivalent assets to a Rembrandt or Degas master piece<br /><br />The economic problems we are facing are rooted in the fact<br />that too many people are spending money they never had while the<br />financial institutions were trading instruments they never understood.<br />.<br />We need a tax system in place that rewards savings and penalizes<br />people who borrow money that they don't have. Given the behavior<br />of the American consumer, we need systems in place that will drive<br />people and financial institutions to behave in a fiscally responsible manner. <br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List<br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>I was wondering when a voice of reason would pipe in on this thread...AMEN
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Even if the percentage of foreclosures is small-and is that miniscule 0.1% number really correct- that picture doesn't tell the whole story. There are a fair number of families who are able to just barely make the mortgage payments and hang onto their homes, who live from paycheck to paycheck and have a relatively low quality of life. They have no savings, plenty of debts, and maybe no health care, so I don't think the picture is quite that rosy at all.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>Well I agree that the situation is grim for many people, particularly that small percentage really losing their homes. Painting the picture as "rosie" for them is certainly out of the question; but I equate that to suggesting we're headed for a depression too. We are long ways short of the problems we had in 1979 and that was not considered a depression (20% interest rates, 10% inflation and 10% unemployment) none of which occurs today. With 95% of America's work force at work, inflation in check and interest rates at all time lows - I think we'll work things out so long as our government lets them work things out. <br /><br />The government could help by stimulating our own oil production; but they won't.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Yes the % of foreclosures is small, but its about double the normal rate and there is still about another 9 months worth of subprime mortgages that will be reset with higher rates. That will push up the % some more. I agree with the sentiment that on its own that doesn't mean there is an economic crisis. But the falling house values - which will fall even more, means that there is nothing left to "cover" consumer debt.<br /><br />But thats just one part of the overall story - the much larger issue is that our government is horrendously in debt, our trade balances are very negative, the value of our currency is going down rather quickly, inflation is back, and our government doesn't have the backbone to address fundamental issues we face.<br /><br />I actually agreed for many years on the comment about drilling more oil. I now actually think that we might be better off not drilling in Alaska and waiting 20-30 years for the Middle East to exhaust their supply. This is basically a strategic resource that we may want to hand onto as long as possible. The price of oil isn't going way down until we find a way to cut consumption, especially in cars....as car growth in China was 40% last year, Russia 35%, etc, etc throughout the developing markets.<br /><br />Americans simply consume more than they should and are going to learn some hard lessons......I just hope the government doesn't penalize those that save and are financially responsible to try to help those that aren't (of course the government has already done this by pushing interest rates down and increasing the money supply - $ has tanked and inflation goes up).<br /><br /><br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Guys, I'm not sure you are fully grasping what occurred yesterday. Bear Stearns, an 85 year old investment bank, received federal protection (the first time since the Depression that the govt has had to intervene to save a bank). Bear Stearns will cease to exist in a matter of days. That is not a minor matter or one attributable to the media. It is simply an incredible fact.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>steve</b><p>The federal government is in sooooo much more in debt now compared to when Clinton left office.<br /><br />The Bush administration will go down as the worst campaign - maybe in the entire US history.<br /><br />As I said before, I was a little in tears when the electoral votes came out last election in favor of Bush over Kerry.<br /><br />It was a sad, sad day in American history.<br /><br />steve
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>John</b><p> "Next time you post a picture of your girlfriend on the floor of your residence, please ask her to dress properly"<br /><br />Bruce I’ll give you that one, that’s funny! Good one ol’ chap!<br /><br /><br />Also, Bruce I’m deeply hurt that you would make fun of my girlfriend above “Bruceina” that night we had our first experimental encounter with each other was special for me. I told you as we lay together spooning each other that you may have ruined me for all women; it took me sometime before I could find a woman built with your characteristics. And well Bruceina and I couldn’t be happier!<br /><br />But you want to hear one that’s really funny?<br /><br />I’ve got one for you, it’s about this guy named “B” who dresses like an out of work math teacher calls a rental car service a “Limo” service. But wait it gets even funnier this guy claims he works and owns a corporation called a “group” that specializes in merger & accusations. <br /><br />Yet by looking at this guy it’s clear to see the last thing this guy merged with and or acquired was an extra value meal supersized, or perhaps a Dominoes pizza delivered to his massive two bedroom apartment/office or “World Headquarters” as he calls it.<br /><br />But the fun just keeps on coming so don’t stop laughing yet folks! This guy constantly posts about money, high grade cards, world economy and claims to have one super tough want list. The main reason it’s tough is simple, because all of the cards on it he can’t afford, or folks wont sell them for half price.<br /><br />But like all good stories there’s a sad part folks, the sad part is “B’s” just a normal guy who probably did ok with his life, collection and career. But instead of taking pride in that fact, he would rather live in a fantasy world where he pretends to be something he and everyone around him knows he’s not. <br /><br />That’s right folks, yet more financial advice from a guy who doesn’t even have the courtesy to ask if he can chip in for a dinner he was invited too. Yes a true superstar of wealth and the economy that does the old dine and dash better than a hobo riding the rails.<br /><br />We find this very sad indeed.<br /><br />* The following is entirely fictional. Any likeness to real life events or characters is purely coincidental. Wonkaticket takes no responsibility for any similarities between the following and real life*<br /><br />That should keep the legal threats to my inbox to a minimum.<br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>and exactly how were more taxes taken out of the publics coffers, more government spending and more regulation going to help the economy...all of which were obviously going to occur by Kerry? <br /><br />Come on, our generation amassed great wealth thanks to the technology boom of the 1990's. No boom lasts forever; the cycle is turning downward and once the correction has occured things will start moving forward; unless our government screws up.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I invite anybody who is naive and uninformed enough to believe that the sub-prime mortgage fiasco is media-created and is the result of "irresponsible" buyers, to come to my neighborhood in a California suburb and tell that to the poor people whose homes are being auctioned-off.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p><br />I invite anybody who is naive and uninformed enough to believe that the sub-prime mortgage fiasco is media-created and is the result of "irresponsible" buyers, to come to my neighborhood in a California suburb and tell that to the poor people whose homes are being auctioned-off.<br />-----------------<br /><br />Well, with the exception of those who refinanced their homes as a result of being "hoodwinked", or "sweet-talked", or lied to but scum mortgage salemen into going into an ARM, I would say that the rest are responsible for overextending themselves and making the assumption that their home would go up in value 20% a year. <br /><br />If you buy a 500K home on a 60K salary with no ability to put down a down payment....your making an irresponsible choice.<br /><br />I believe that the government should try to help those homeowners that are over the age of 60 that have only a primary residence that they have lived in for more than 10 year and was refinanced into an ARM - the vast majority of these folks were simply lied to and didn't know what they were actually agreeing to, and the government provided absolutely no common sense protection in the form of basic regulation. Everyone else needs to take personal responsibility - you take the risk and accept the reward when things are good...you also take the loss when things change. <br /><br />I know that there are always exceptions - but I can state that I have several friends that refinanced mortgages into ARM's, or took second mortgages and used the money to take vacations, buy cars, necklaces, and basically live a lifestyle well above what they should have....even though they are my friends, I don't think that as a taxpayer I should cough up money to cover their shortfall. Though through fed policy and lower interest rates and lower USD I'm already paying. These people weren't poor, but they chose to live above their means and now have to pay for their year's of living above their means.....a remarkably simliar situation to our federal government and the budget deficit.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I can't believe this. <br /><br />People have always been irresponsible with money and they have dealt with it one way or another. People have also used refinance money to go on vacations, etc. There are no laws against that.<br /><br />True, perhaps families with a $60K combined income shouldn't be buying $500K homes, but the picture is much worse than that. There are people with $100K-plus salaries (in CA at least)- who are being foreclosed on OR who are having a difficult time making payments. AND they are not stupid people- they relied on the promises of scumbags in an unregulated industry. They have also relied on the government to do the right thing, instead of the government (both GOP and DEM) making poor financial decisions and NOT being forthright with the true financial picture. It is also the fault of the banks for ENCOURAGING appraisers to artifically raise home values- which in turn made them more money.<br /><br />Irresponsible spenders do NOT create an epidemic like this and instead of blaming these poor people, we should be trying to help them (or at least reserving judgment).
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Irresponsible spenders do NOT create an epidemic like this and instead of blaming these poor people, we should be trying to help them (or at least reserving judgment).<br />-------------------<br /><br />I agree with that....its also irresponsible lenders and I don't want a penny of taxpayer $'s to go to fancy MBA suits either. Their shareholders should cut their bonuses to zero, demand previous bonuses back for shortsighted and money losing decisions and fire many of them for lacking common sense (ie offering loans to people without knowing doing any kind of credit analysis).<br /><br />But I don't think its judgement to say that people that lived above their means should be the one's that pay for their behavior Those that live within their means shouldn't pay for those that aren't responsible. The sad part is that your absolutely correct in that many of these people have decent jobs, and are intelligent - but they played "keeping up with the Jones" and lost. I and millions like myself kept up with our affordable lifestyle and made responsible decisions. Why should I now pay for those that took the extra three vacations, drove the Porsche, and spent extravegently on Jewelry, clothes, electronics? If I knocked on your door and asked you to buy me a Iphone because I thought it was really cool - you'd probably tell me to take a hike - the people you describe are in essence asking for the same thing, just after the fact. <br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>I don't disagree. <br /><br />I agree that those board members/shareholders should be held accountable. I also agree that there should not necessraily be a taxpayer-funded bailout. But there has to be an alternate solution, somewhere, especially for those who may have lived beyond their means- but not to the point of extravagence (Porsches, jewelry, etc.). Maybe there isn't an easy solution, which sucks too.<br /><br />
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Now, about all those irresponsible people that made irresponsible choices... Many of those people had no idea how to handle finances. Those people were desperate beyond any measure. They wanted to have the American dream, a house. This didn't happen over night. The housing market started to escalate and people saw NO end in sight to the rising prices. The lax regulation on loans only invited the ignorant to join the party and achieve the American dream of home ownership before they were completely priced out of the market. DESPERATION - can you say that - DESPERATION. I've been watching a lot of these families move out of the houses - foreclosed upon. A lot of these people had no idea what it meant to take on a mortgage. No, they had no real means to pay but they didn't care, they wanted in before it was too late. <br /><br />Now, bring on the Bear Stearns and other financial institutions - they bought a lot of those financial mortgage instruments. Those half million dollar homes are now selling in the $350K range. That's $150K of loss. Now multiply that many times. Who do you think eats that loss? It just doesn't disappear. Nobody takes a Mulligan on it. It evaporates and somebody needs to pay the piper for it. If you live in one of those areas where the housing market went exponential you should talk to a real estate broker. The toughest thing for them to do (these days) is find buyers that actually QUALIFY for a loan. This is one of those RIPPLE DOWN type of affects that we will watch happen. Somehow I just don't see this one getting swept under the rug without a few repercussions.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>The irony of all of this is that Bear Stearns is filled with multi-zillionaires who all live in homes they can afford which do not have subprime mortgages; however, those zillionaires made zillions off the subprime mortgage industry. Now that those borrowers are crapping out, the Bear Stearns boys -- who were responsible with their own money -- will now be losing their jobs. I can't say that such a result makes me sad.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Fred- Well said. For every person who bought that Porsche they couldn't afford, there is at least one person/family who entirely deserved to buy that modest home and take that modest vacation to Disneyland. But, through no fault of their own (aside from perhaps not being too tightly financially conservative), they're now in an uncomfortable place and that's too bad.<br /><br />Jeff- Also a good point. Although I hate for ANYONE to lose their jobs- their predicament is ironic.
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Ah crap, here I go. TAX PAYER BAIL OUT? Please.... lets not do something that stupid. The government needs to let the market find it's own bottom, naturally. The government propping up this mess will only postpone the inevitalbe, that being a correction in the real estate market. The sad part is that a lot of those greedy brokers sold the loans and are out of the mess. All this fiasco is going to do is put more government reulations in place because the American public was too stupid and greedy to act in a rationale manner. I hate to say this but having the government put rules and restrictions in place may not be a bad idea, else we not learn from the past and repeat this mess in the future. The thought of a tax payer bail out just pisses me off. I'm responisible, I pay my bills, I know my limits. Increasing my taxes to pay for a bail out and an unpopular war will only reduce the amount of income I have to spend on the one thing that makes me forget about all that crap... CARDBOARD. Fuggemall..... sorry for the rant... does any get the feeling that a goverment bail out pisses me off?
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Fist of all "LetsGoBucks" please be careful in these arguments while staying anonymous. All is good right now but just be careful. <br /><br />I do absolutely agree with you though. I find little sympathy or empathy for those that took ARMs and now can't afford them. If mortgagees took out equity from their homes and refi'd into an ARM then shame on them. They need to deal with it. America can't keep living on credit debt because at some point someone (us) has to pay for it. If you aren't fiscally responsible then that is your choice. No one forced anyone to sign those contracts and spend the money. For the small percentage of retirees that got hoodwinked then I would soften the blow somewhat but they would still have to be responsible and pay back what they can.....sort of like a reorg.........regards
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