Namath RC at 81k?
 

fraud or a couple of huge Namath collectors?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1965-Topps-F...25.m3641.l6368

Good Lord.

right?
 

i know you have the PWCC "factor" involved, but doesn't he get the headache involved of getting his fees having to be refunded if it is fraud? i would think he would scrutinize the bidders closely on this magnitude.

High end graded rookie cards are in a huge bubble right now. Bid at your own risk as someone is eventually gonna be left holding the bag when it pops.

Not gonna be me.

jeff

Insanity

Insanity is right!
Larry

insanity
 

if the bidders do pay up, on that kind of crazy bid, they most likely have so much money that a 10 fold drop in value would mean nothing to them.

+1. There are new players in the game. It ain't hacks like you and me, and those worried about VCP average selling prices! :p

Wall Street card I guess.

Wall Street money
 

I feel like chump change compared to this clientele. A nice Ruth rc could also have been acquired for this amount.

The irony for me is that Namath is barely a top ONE HUNDRED football player. He would not make any serious critic's list of 10 top QBs. It's absurd.

Yes but that card is often considered one of the top ten football cards of all time ....

According to VCP a couple of years ago 8s sold for 6, 7, and 9k and 8.5s sold for about 16k. The last 8 went for 37 and if and 8.5 is still going for more than double an 8 it's in line at the same ratio. That being said, a 500% increase in two years is pretty crazy, but follows the recent trend of key baseball RCs in PSA 8 and up.

This is the 1952 topps mantle of football cards . Both have a scarcity legend around them. They both depict New York legends. It show the power of simply being a pop culture icon can do. Because as Peter stated Mantle was a far better baseball player then Nameth was a football player.

Now I'm to young to have seen any one of these guys. I grew up it a house that was New York teams as the favorite. I heard more about Namath then Mantle . I grew up with my grandparents,we were all Giants fans.so I guess there must have been something about him back then.

I know, perfect storm -- tall boy, short print, New York, the Super Bowl win, the personality. Still.

Top 100 player
 

He is arguably a top 100 player, but he is certainly a top 5 - 10 football icon. Brought the AFL on par with the NFL. I would also argue he brought more non football people's attention to the sport than anyone else.

I started a thread about the Namath card too: http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=204243

Not that I look to this hobby for income, but if I ever bought a card for 16K, it would probably drop in value - someone might be getting a huge return here...

I wonder if when the TPGs started anyone anticipated... I don't know what to call it - it's kind of a "contrived scarcity". In theory a card that isn't really scarce at all could sell at a huge multiple as long as its the highest graded or among the highest graded. it reminds me a little of the Dmitri Young collection - I don't know the exact figures, but I recall reading some of those cards were around $100 in the PSA 8 grade (which is a pretty good grade), but his 10s sold for a heck of a lot more.

A few of the key late 70s and early 80s RCS fall into this category. Brett, Yount, Ozzie Smith, Rickey Henderson, Rice, Montana etc. 8s worth a couple hundred. 10s worth 10-30k depending on the card. Contrived or not people are willing to step up when the population is low.

People should ask each other questions like this:

Which is more likely to appear in the hobby in the next 10 years: ten more PSA 6 1952 Topps Mickey Mantles or 10 more PSA 8.5 1965 Topps Joe Namath's? With this Namath sale, they will be roughly at the same value.

The problem with population-based scarcity is that the value only holds up (relative to other similar cards) if the population stays low. My bet is that in general, the older the card, the more likely the population stays lower. As card prices for newer cards blast off, more and more people will be digging through their possessions looking for these cards.

jeff

P.S. Still agree that high grade Namath's will do very well in the future for all of the reasons mentioned by others. It is an iconic card as is the Mantle.

85k
 

the underbidder sure looks a little suspicious with all the bid retractions. would not be surprised to see this same card back up for bid in the near future.

what happens if buyer pays right away, PWCC pays the consignor in short manner but the buyer a couple of weeks later decides he doesn't want the card anymore. can the buyer use the ebay return policy time warranty and return the card? hoe tough would it be for the original consignor to have to give PWCC the 85k back? or would ebay tell the buyer tough luck?

The way I view it the labels are independent commodities because the cards inside are virtually indistinguishable.

I am not aware that the value of the card affects eBay's return policy.

Namath wasn't even that good.

Exactly. Strictly in terms of on field performance, it would be like a Duke Snider card being at or near the top of the baseball heap.

Good analogy - an old ESPN ranking I saved had Duke Snyder at 81. Mr. 100 was actually..... Phil Niekro.

Three factors that drive this card that have nothing to do with Namath's place on the all-time NFL list

1) enough people, when they think of football of that era, think of Namath
2) he became a brand that put his face on TV, magazines, billboards, subway and bus ads, and ever other possible medium for advertising
3) market momentum

the only sane reason for buying an $81K card is that you believe the market will be strong enough to give you some return. If you just wanted to collect Namath you could buy 100 game day programs for under $500. Broadway Joe was a fine football player, but he was a marketing pioneer and icon - so it's only fitting that market momentum is driving the price of his card.

Probably others have said all this somewhere else in this thread, so pardon me if I'm Captain Obvious, but there's my $81K point of view.

Mike, good points - of course anything is possible - but I would guess this is speculation too.

A couple of things also unrelated to where Namath ranks all-time among QBs, that haven't been mentioned yet - I never got the sense this set is super popular - I'm just going from posts here, magazine articles, etc. - I admittitly don't go to shows, so I don't get to talk much with collectors. I bring it up because when a set is really popular, a few more collectors than usual are bound to be going for it in high grade - so a high grade low pop card could definitely escalate. The other thing that goes hand-in-hand with a high grade low pop PSA card is the registry - again just based on my own observation which is limited to football cards, I don't think the registry is that popular anymore. Sometimes when I see high grade high number 35 Chicles sell, I make it a point to check the registry for a few weeks (I have it bookmarked - I admit it) and the cards don't show up. Its also noticable with the HOF rookie set - there was a time there was a lot of updates and discussion (CU discussion) on that set - I don't see it as much now - seems to get mentioned when someone is selling it off mostly.