Let's see how far THIS one has fallen! 1958 Topps Jim Brown! Ends tonight!
 

REA has a 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie SGC 8.5. It sold for $20k with PWCC on 4/23/20. Then a year later with the pandemic in full swing it sold for $108k with REA a year later. Now it is back at REA 2 years later and "only" $36k. Exact same card, exact same serial number, all 3 transactions. I'm also watching the 1955 Koufax PSA 9 like someone earlier suggested.

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=138646

Wow that is a hell of a spike and a potential hell of a drop.

Certainly makes the mind wander....

Several thoughts here.

First, I think that $108k sale was a fluke/aberration. A very comparable SGC 8.5 sold in Goldin in October of 2021 for $47,970. The current REA card is at $43,200 w/ BP and we still have extended bidding tonight. My gut is this is not a "market" thing, but rather someone just totally overpaid in 2021 and they will take a bath here.

Meanwhile (second), PSA 8.5's sold for $360k and $288k in 2022 -- shattering the paltry $108k realized on the SGC 8.5 in REA in 2021. I take these PSA 2022 comps to mean (i) the card was still going up in 2022 vs 2021, and thus, the SGC 8.5 Goldin sale in late 2021 should have beat or been close to the REA sale, if the REA sale was not a fluke, and (ii) PSA prices for a commodity card like this destroy SGC prices (PSA 8's have sold between mid $20k's and $45k since mid 2021).

Third, if we throw out the $108k sale as a fluke, and we look at the Goldin sale and the $19.6k sale by PWCC in 2020, this card has done very well over the last 3 years -- its more than doubled in value, with time to go.

This is a "commodity" card, which to me means its highly and widely desirable, fairly common, and generally liquid. I do believe that commodity cards are down off their highs of a year ago (or whenever they peaked). Some commodity cards more than other (see MJ rookies). Those who bought at the heights are sitting on loses for sure, some large and some less so. But anyone who bought these cards before 2021 are sitting on large gains. I expect most of those who bought the good stuff at the height of things will do just fine if they can hold the cards for a while. As an aside, to me, commodity cards can be from 1910 --a T206 red cobb and 33 Goudey Ruth are 1000% commodity cards that are off their highs at the peak. So I am, not just speaking in regards to "modern stuff".

Last thought -- I think the Koufax rookie is different because it sits in a PSA 9 flip, making it less of a commodity and more of a major item. But we all expect those to be down compared to last sales. However, lets talk about the 1925 Gehrig PSA 4.5 (MAJOR card) that sold in Lelands last night for just under $400k. An apparently great price until you compare it to the PSA 5 that sold in Memory Lane for over $1mm a year ago. Is this the signs of a weakened market, is Memory Lane a much better AH for that card than Lelands, is .5 grade in an older flip really worth 2.5x?

Who bought it at $180k last year? Was it an investor group that had already purchased a bunch of lower-graded examples with the goal of the 8.5 sales being used as a proxy for a lifting tide raises all ships theory? Makes one wonder... did collectors ever buy these bigger cards at record prices? Or where they are being pushed for the greater good, greater good for the groups since already purchased up a large swap of lower-graded examples. A fool and his money are often soon parted.

The Brown card is clearly the hot shit, broadly coveted vintage (I guess) era football card. It is a stunning image. Ran up stupid like a lot of other things.

Definitely a great commodity card and for football collectors very iconic. Still amazed by the prices but again there were many cards that rode that wave to some degree or another.
Look at the Rookie Jordan 10 from a 20k card up to $700k plus to 150k in a relatively short time as these others

Hold onto your butts
 

Might be a little early to declare that someone is taking a bath here. A lot of auctions for pieces like this seem to see prices double (or more) during extended bidding.

Naturally, now that I’ve proffered such a prognostication, no one will bid on it again between now and closing.

I think the card will get some more bids, but in relation to the $108k…. I am calling Splish Splash (but it def may beat the Goldin comp from October 2021)

Now a couple years removed from the covid peak in prices, the upcoming major vintage/pre-war auctions will give good indication of the state of our market - everything from the $5.k Mathewson type cards all the way to the '58 high grade Jim Brown to the PSA 9 Koufax rookie.

I am guessing we are on new "normal" ground without any driving forces outside of basic hobby supply/demand.

While many absolutely fantastic cards in REA, I notice a lack of mid to higher grade T206 HOF'ers. Kinda tells me people have tucked these away. There was a T206 W. Johnson hands chest that someone hit the BIN 7,800. on eBay recently - a new all time high for that card. And it was very avg/low for the grade.

With any commodity card I wonder why it is in an SGC holder. If it could get a comparable grade from PSA why wouldn't the owner switch it? This is always a red flag to me.
As for the Gehrig rookie, buying this card from a scan is crazy. I don't think you can tell from a scan if it is a 1925 or a 1926 and as we've all seen saying something on a cert doesn't always make it so.

They way I'm seeing cards bounce around from one auction to another, I'm impressed someone held this one for two years.

Maybe I am new here but isn't the 1926 Gehrig Exhibit a different picture? I just went searching as it sounded like an interesting question you raised. Only found a portrait or batting stance image for the 26-29 Exhibits.

Is it me but is that really an 8.5 with all those surface flaws?

Nice Try
 

....nice try , but I and thirteen other guys on here are bidding on it anyway. But planting seeds of doubt has worked , at least for me , in other situations.. now if you'll excuse me I'm going back to my Google search results for " Highest-paying blood banks within 100 miles of Pottstown , Pennsylvania."

..

[QUOTE=MikeGarcia;2334097]....nice try , but I and thirteen other guys on here are bidding on it anyway. But planting seeds of doubt has worked , at least for me , in other situations.. now if you'll excuse me I'm going back to my Google search results for " Highest-paying blood banks within 100 miles of Pottstown , Pennsylvania."

LOl, Nope I have no skin in this game! Just looked at the card close and there are lines on front left, rub off on back and much surface spots. Seriously an 8.5?

Here's a thread that discusses the difference. I remembered reading about that years ago. (When I should have bought one!) It really gets going in Orlando's post #42 https://net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=227798

Now if only the 1958 Topps Brown cards in VG-EX or EX conditions would drop a little more, I might have a good chance at purchasing one!!

That was my thought, but 58 footballs are littered with those defects, especially the black oval cards. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a truly clean 1958 black oval in hand. If it was a different card I doubt it would be given an honest 8.5 honest.

Slippery slope, if TPG's started grading specific to sets you would see a lot more Pre-war 3's and 4's qualify for 5's and 6's. they treat marquee cards differently depending on the submitter. A conundrum for sure.

Thanks. Interesting read. Sounds like this one might be the true 25 since it looks quite black and white without a blue tint that signifies the 26.

I am not in support of a standard that shifts by set; an EX card is an EX card. Some sets and cards just won’t have true high grade.

However, it seems apparent to me that, while never stated by them, all of the graders are doing this in actual practice. Most 1958 Brown’s in high grade slabs would suffer a 1-3 point knock if they were 1971 Topps baseball where the black, while prone to edge wear, is not so prone to surface wear, scuffing and print issues. I don’t think this particular Brown is an outlier.

This. People who care about graded postwar cards of this level skew towards PSA.

My $0.02 on the Brown RC is that the rough edges left and right stand out enough to make me question whether it would cross over to a comparable PSA grade or maybe get knocked down 1/2 or even 1 grade.

The Brown sold for $47k . TERRIBLE flip for the one who bought it during Covid. Also, the Koufax PSA 9 sold for $384k.

From the “assets” I keep an eye on, this Jim Brown card seems pretty indicative of the market…

Pre-Covid price = X
Peak of Covid spike = 5-10X
Current = 2-3X

I have so many questions about these "purchases" over the last 3 years.

That's the thing. Prices get reported, but if the sale doesn't go through or there are other things making it unreliable, those don't get reported.

But that isn't specific to 2020-2022 or any other period; it's just always been noise in the data.

Right, but it becomes more of an issue during periods where there is a high suspicion that sales are not real.

My guess is people were less likely to back out of a purchase when they perceived the market was booming (e.g., two years ago) than they are now.

My guess is that in times like 2016 the market was booming in part because of FOMO created by fake sales. There was a post on Blowout a few years ago that strongly suggested lots of reported sales by PWCC never happened, for example.

I’m guessing the fact that every Bill, Dick and Harry runs an auction and/or a show every single week now might have something to do with it, too. The hobby’s big, but it ain’t that big.

The only thing that surprises me is that the people buying $100K cards need to turn them into liquid cash so quickly in a market that’s falling and continuing to go down. Most cards are at half their Covid peak or less; one might still make a profit or is very likely to take significantly less of a loss with some patience by holding.

Of course, that assumes there was an actual Covid high sale and the card(s) did in fact change hands, which is an awfully large and generous assumption.

I don't even try to keep up any more, there is so much out there.

I am pretty sure it changed hands. It sold thru REA two years ago. REA is not in the business of sitting on 6 figure cards for 2 years. Whoever bought it obviously has more money than sense however. And might not be as financially money savvy as one would hope.

It's my belief the money was made on the under cards.