Of course we don't know what the future holds in store for Judge, but the analogy to Maas as a "cautionary tale" is fairly apt.

https://www.baseballessential.com/ne...ee-kevin-maas/

Yes, of course, but that's the context we are discussing, namely the values we are seeing on some of the modern cards. Or at least that was the context in which I made the statement.

Gotcha, Peter, makes sense in that context. Wasn't sure since a prior post was referencing price-performances of guys who had relatively brief flashes of greatness.

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.

I completely agree with all of that. Future greatness is totally priced in by the modern collectors, and it kind of forces a fan who wants to collect a current player to choose when to hop on the train, so to speak, and buy.

As a huge pure fan of some modern guys, I'm forced to think, "OK, I want to collect this guy, so do I pony up now and hope he doesn't continue to soar? Or do I wait?"

For me, my love of a player or card will always trump any remote sense of fiscal responsibility, and so I'll splurge when the itch to collect hits. I've got my zone of comfort in terms of how high I can go for a Judge or Sanchez card and not care a lick if it tanks; for others that price tag can be a 10k superfractor or the like.

What I've found with collecting present guys is there's a thrill unique to it, an aspect that's nice to feel— in terms of the unknown; we're on the fan's journey with a player in the active present; we don't know how his career will turn out; so we root. And rooting is a blast. That's not to say it's better than what we get with our much older cards, it's just different and cool in its own way. I think too many times on here collecting is treated as some zero sum game, where it's this card or collecting ethos VERSUS that one. Doesn't have to be that way. Especially among people who all ostensibly love the same sport and the collecting of cards.

A modern collector of his favorite young player may be buying a fairly expensive ticket on a fun ride that will end— like any rollercoaster or hand of blackjack, LOL— or he may wind up with some cards he loves that also sustain or grow their value. Cool either way.

I didn't say TROUT collectors will rue the day, I said guys who chase prospects THINKING THEY WILL ALL BECOME TROUT will rue the day. Trout is a beast. But the more cards and autos they release of him, the more they will become devalued.

You don't like my comparison to Maas because of their differing approach at the plate. Way to miss the point. Buy whatever you want. I honestly don't care. If you can't take advice with a grain of salt, and feel you need to go into attack mode, then you aren't worth my time or advice. I will grab my cane and head back to the pre-war section where I belong.

I can certainly take someone's words with a grain of salt. In fact that's the very first time I went off like that in years in this community.

Because you didn't dispense them with a grain of salt.

You used the words and phrases:

"I've been screaming this from the rooftops... I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really?... So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea... absurd. ...They will learn the hard way."

We only have our chosen words in a setting like this, and those chosen words certainly land hard— at least to the point where they wouldn't engender being taken with a grain of salt.

You seem like an EXTREMELY educated person. You must grant me two things: 1. Mike trouts are one in a million. Collectors will spend way too much money chasing prospects that simply will not pan out. As Peter stated, a guy dropped a million bucks on a Strasbourg! It was cute when I chased Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel for 10 or 20 bucks, but it's dangerous to chase them in the five-figure range.
2. If the same card is printed with a minor difference in color, and they stamp 1/1000, 1/100, 1/50, 1/10, 1/5, and 1/1 on them, there are 1,166 of that card. The different color or stamp used by the card company to entice and trick people doesn't change that fact. This is nothing but a marketing ploy used to fool people into the illusion of rarity.

If you like modern players, by all means collect them. This hobby is meant to collect what we love. My anger is directed at the card companies and Beckett for propelling this fraud. Collect what you love. I'm just trying to share my experience from 31 years of collecting cards and watching can't-miss prospects fail. New generations always tell older generations that their experience is different, and we just don't understand. But the reality is that things don't change much, they just come in different packages.

I think this thread is getting way out of hand and it's original theme has been lost along the way?

My replies, to Packs, and I think others like Orly's were written to show/tell that "investing" in players such as Judge is not necessarily a wise investment, especially with the prices it currently costs to jump in.

No one is saying you're stupid to purchase these cards if you want them, but are saying, if you are purchasing for investment purposes, then it is not a wise investment at this point in their careers.

Like I mentioned earlier, I could care less what people collect nor how many cards are out there, but when someone can't understand when modern, newer cards of players who's amount of cards go on forever, aren't as valuable as some older, much harder to find, a legend if you will, player who is already in the HOF, then I don't know what else to say. :confused:

Orly,

I'd grant you all of that, and certainly agree with all of that.

All I took umbrage with was the perceived sentiment that anyone collecting the likes of an emerging talent is somehow making a big mistake, or being duped like a child or a fool.

I find that when intelligent people discuss things, they agree more than they initially thought. Here is a good example of things coming in different packages. 1991 Wildcard football. This Favre 20 was supposed to be worth 20x the value of a standard Favre. The 1000 was 1,000 times more valuable. Scammers don't re-invent the wheel, they just modify the scam. Sure, a Favre collector will pay more for the rarity of the 1000 card, but Not because of some magic multiplier. It's an ultra-rare Favre rookie. Favre is an all-time great hall of famer. It's only a 2k card. So if a player the status of Favre has an ultra rare rookie going for 2k, what is the upside on guys who don't have HOF careers?

Here's my $20 Favre rookie. None graded higher lol.

Frank Howard was 6-7, he had a decent career, 1960 AL ROY, and won a ring with the 63 Dodgers.

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

I think I just heard Babe Ruth roll over in his grave.:rolleyes:

Frank Howard is a decent comparison. He won ROY at age 23, but had his real breakout year at age 25. Judge walks more (and also strikes out more), at this point in his career, but Howard built his Walk numbers up as his career went on.

I would guess Judges batting average will eventually fall in line to around Howards levels as his career goes on. I have a feeling he's having a Norm Cash like outlier year, as far as his B.A. goes.. I think Frank Howard is a much more realistic goal for him then Miguel Cabrera.

No shame in that. Frank had some fantastic years.

if yankees make playoffs i'd keep your judges until october, if not sell by september. could just be a huge outlier year, his age and minor league track record suggest a solid OF with power, not barry bonds with the cream and clear. but he is playing in NY, for the yankees, so of course he's the second coming and better than slice bread. i expect him to settle down just like betts and lindor...fine solid players but probably not the superstars and #1 prospects. unless you're a freak like trout, some you just see coming for awhile and hear the hype like harper and correa.

we got our own "judge" out here in cody bellinger, and he plays late at night so doesn't get the same hype...but he's 4 years younger with a sweet swing. of course my concern is he gets homer-happy and goes the way of joc pederson, or he can learn and adjust and be corey seager with massive power.

In terms of long term investing, 21 is a good age to give a shot for. 25 not so much

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

.288 in 1979. Some would call that close.

Boggs was 24. The brilliant Red Sox management kept him in the minors for years lol.

Rich, with all due respect, I think the PED genie is one you never, ever get back in the bottle with the current salary levels. Does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one taking Nandrolone? My bet is that an effective masking agent was developed, which Marte thought he was getting, but someone sold him a bill of goods instead. I don't think we will ever know for certain who is or has been using PED's. I separate baseball history into two eras in this regard: pre-1985 and post-1985, but without any real prejudice--the PED era simply represents the conditions under which the game has and IMHO IS being played. I, for one, really enjoyed seeing Mark McGwire play. Just don't try to directly compare the two or players from different eras. That's simply apples and oranges.

Regards,

Larry

Rocky Colavito, Cesar Cedeno, Ted Kluzewski, and on and on. Initial demand is speculative and transient. The real time to buy, when such demand has moved on to the latest and greatest phenoms, is when these guys have established a real HOF resume and are in their 30's downslide. Barring injury, though, I do like Judge and believe he will last--love the way he drives the ball from left center to right center, like Mantle did, and stays inside the pitch, with that lead shoulder following, not leading, his hands, so he doesn't open up too soon (unlike Harper, who violently yanks the lead shoulder open to start the swing, which is why he can serve it to but has no real power to left--once that shoulder is open and long gone, the only way to get the bat to the outside pitch is let it linger behind and drag it through the zone). Time alone will tell.


Hi, Pete,

Larry

How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

"If" a rookie wins MVP and ROY in the same season, while setting the rookie HR record, and chasing a triple crown— that's sounds like one heck of a talent to me.

It would be one season, yes— yet every player starts with just one season.

If the needle/haystack is in reference to how some are looking at Judge, I would respectfully offer that instead of raining on the Aaron Judge parade, why not smile and enjoy a kid who is playing the right way, providing enormous entertainment and excitement— and creating positive energy for both baseball and the card hobby. Not to mention he's showcasing all the physical and mental skills a player needs to keep on raking.

There's a whole journey that is a player's career; fans and collectors can enjoy that journey without worrying what the player's rookie cards will be valued at when their careers are over. And if Mr. Judge can average 33.3 HRs from 25-40, while winning a WS or three along the way, for the biggest market team on earth, all the better. Time will tell. And for many collectors and collector-investors of current/modern players, watching that time play out in the present is something of value in and of itself.

There are movies and books that one has seen and read, and the outcome is known. Those can always be picked up and enjoyed again. Then there is the thrill of watching a story unfold, where you don't know the outcome. That's also enjoyable. These two types of entertainment are not mutually exclusive.

It seems that when we have great young players performing in the present, we're in such a rush to know or determine what their final career counting stats will be. I guess what I am talking about is living in and enjoying the moment. There was a time when Shoeless or Hornsby or Cobb or Ruth or Mantle were young, and people loved collecting them at that time; imagine someone coming along and going, "Man, that Mantle just got terribly injured and ripped his knee apart, and he K's a ton, and they already sent him down once, and I heard he almost quit, why are you wasting your time with him? He won't get 3000 hits. What's his rookie gonna be worth when his career's over?"

* I will add this, since the value topic was brought up: my Aaron Judge cards have thus far gained more value percentage-wise, and at a faster pace, than any vintage piece I've ever owned. That said, as a collector I love all my cards the same.

My post was only in reference to another poster who said a guy who begins his career at 25 doesn't have much of a shot at making the HOF.

As far as "values" go, look at Manny Machado. He's hitting 225 right now. His auto rookie is still selling for a few hundred bucks a piece. So you can't really talk about Thome or Edgar Martinez's rookie cards in respect to the modern rookie card. They were manufactured in the millions vs thousands and then hundreds and then dozens. It's apples to oranges.

Values are really fickle. Just for kicks I bought a couple of Bellingers and literally within a week before I even had them (a few HR later I guess) the same cards were selling for double and even more. Crazy.

Of course the prices of current players will go up quicker than the images of the dead guys. They have one or two big weeks and their cards are buzzing on eBay like the NY stock exchange. The issue is whether or not that young player can sustain that pace over a long period of time. High-risk stocks always give higher yields than lower-risk blue-chips.
And Matty, no one is rooting against Aaron Judge (except Red Sox fans). His sample-size keeps growing and he keeps performing like a stud.

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

Let me compare Kimbrel's first full seasons (2011 to 2016) to Mariano's equivalent (1997 to 2002). Also keep in mind that Kimbrel's first full season as closer came at age 23 compared to Mariano age 27.

Kimbrel:
391 Games / 380.2 IP
255SV/280SVO = 91.07%
WHIP: .935
ERA: 1.94
SO 606
SO9 14.3


Rivera:
368 Games / 404.1 IP
238SV / 272SVO = 87.5%
WHIP: 1.021
ERA: 2.25
SO 338
SO9 7.5


This isn't to say that Rivera wasn't great, but there is nothing in these stats that would merit someone stating "Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all". I will state it again, Mariano appeared to be the greatest because he came into the position when it was still in its inception. Now, though, player's are groomed for the position. Kimbrel was groomed as are others that will follow him in. I do understand that Kimbrel would have to play 11 more seasons to match Rivera's career but he may be able to accumulate the stats quicker with the pace he is on., but that doesn't change the fact that inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.

His losses became a story, but Kimbrel giving up a hit was considered a bad outing in an ESPN article today:

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/p...s-of-home-runs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

Innings pretty much. Mariano faced more batters and likely did it against better opposition, in tougher ballparks, and also did it right in the heart of the steroid era.

Even then, as a reliever, most weren't running out and buying up Mariano rookie cards. He started old and most expected him to peter out. It wasn't until many years later when people realized what a generational talent he was.

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

Yea that's the thing. Longevity is key for closers. You see tons of guys have a great 4-8 year stretch maybe but then fall apart. It's hard to remain dominant in the later years. Also, so much of Mariano is his stellar playoff performance.

Kimbrels been great but, It a bit like saying Mike Trout is as good as Ted Williams, just too soon to make any comparison. Not saying it can't happen either though.

This thread needs a little shiny eye candy...

I've been less and less into newer cards over the years and am mostly all vintage but must admit that Aaron Judge has caught my fascination and just "had to have" some of his stuff! As a Yankee fan, this has been awesome to watch, at least for Judge. The crippling recent injuries and rough stretch is another issue altogether! I realize the ride could stop at any time or at least slow down with Judge, and don't advocate buying into Judge right now as any great sure fire long term investment, but sometimes you just need to have fun!

Thankfully I got these early enough in the real crazy run up, think all are probably going for 2x or more what I paid.

Nice cards erick. It does look like he put more effort into signing that ball than he did into signing the cards though. He actually has a real nice signature on that ball.
I have been meaning to ask new-card guys this for a while. Why is it that in modern collecting so many guys have "rookies" in various years. Like Yoan Moncada, for example, has Leaf and Pannini issues in 2015, but also has "rookie" cards from 2016. I've noticed this with quite a few players.

Yea, that's why I wanted and paid more for that baseball. He signed some baseballs earlier (mine is from 2015) with a full name signature. However, the vast majority are just the A J version, or more recently he's been doing sort of an Aarn J-- version on some but very few are real full name signatures.

I completely don't get the whole RC card definition for new cards. It seems to be different for whoever you talk to. I was just discussing the issue in this thread... http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=241738

Moncada has some 1st cards (which I would consider to be rookies but some do not) in 2015 leaf and maybe another brand? Can't remember. These are unlicensed by MLB I think? I believe Topps has a monopoly on that now, which doesn't seem right to me either.

His first licensed Topps and Bowman cards are from 2016 I believe. And even though he debuted in 2016, his "RC logo" cards (which some modern collectors consider to be rookies) are from 2017 only I think. It's really confusing and makes no sense to me. To me first year cards are rookie cards (as long as they've been signed to an MLB franchise). I can see not calling high school cards Rookie cards, but once a player is signed to a franchise and has a major card issue I don't see how that's not a rookie. It has/had been for years. (1991 chipper jones, 1993 Jeters etc...)

The notion that people pay huge amounts for these chicken scratch illegible autographs (and most of them appear to be that way these days) is odd to me.

I don't find anything new about the way people sign their names. Look at Napoleon's signature.

You're just being contrarian. It's obvious that a very high percentage of modern players make zero effort to give you anything resembling a legible signature.

I was just kidding about Napoleon but I think the quantity has a lot to do with the quality. You have to sign thousands for all kinds of brands and sets. I'm guessing that affects how you go about signing.

Looks like Dan Prescott put a great deal of effort into his on-card autos.

No excuse imo. For millions a year, take the time.

+1 in a huge way! The players don't seem to realize that without fans willing to foot the bill, there are no "professional" sports. The fans pay the salaries through admissions, concessions, parking and buying the radio and TV sponsors' products. Their teams are just conduits through which that money flows.

Best wishes,

Larry

I agree with that but this isn't about players signing for fans, it's about players signing insert cards that number probably in the tens of thousands.

This doesn't really compare but once a week I sign our vendor checks at work. I sign probably 200 checks each time. Even at that low number I've decided to change my signature to make it easier on me.

And who do the players think are buying the cards? I don't care how many they are asked to sign (and I doubt any given player is asked to sign tens of thousands), they are getting paid so much money they should take the time to sign cleanly and legibly.

I mean look at this it's a disgrace.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Justin-Verla...kAAOSwc1FXYHtd

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-...AAAOSwMvtZXvTC

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-...4AAOSw6YtZWtpy

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-Bowmans...wAAOSw8d5ZWtgn

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AARON-JUDGE-...YAAOSw1BlZVxx0

I would be willing to bet that if you didn't know whose cards they were you couldn't tell who had signed half the autographs out there.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news...a1drgug56ipj9x