t206 vs 1988 topps... yeah you read that right!
 

I was recently thinking about production numbers. I was wondering if 1988 topps could have the same fate as t206 in 2088 (or beyond).

According to the book "The Card: Collectors, Con Men and the True History of History's Most Desired Baseball Card" There were 370 Million t206 cards produced.

In 1909 America's population was at 90,490,000 people. That would make there be 4 t206 cards per person.

In 1988 the American population was 244,498,982 That is 270% more people in a America. If t206 would have been made in correlating numbers there would have been nearly 1 billion of them made (999,719,564).

There are 524 accepted t206 fronts. 360mil = aprox 687k sets (obviously this isn't exact as some were DP and some are SP)

There are 792 cards in a 1988 topps set.

To hit the same quantities of the t206 at 687k per front and increased for population (270%) there would have to have been 1,469,129,771 1988 topps cards produced. That is nearly 1.5 BILLION 1988 topps cards. I couldn't find actual production numbers for 1988 topps, but even if it is higher I believe with 1.5 Billion cards from a set floating around. This would feel overwhelming and certainly have no value just as regular 88 topps cards have.

So were t206 the 1988 topps of the day? Were there so many that people that did collect them still felt there were more than enough and so a lot of them got thrown out and destroyed just as 88 topps cards are looked at today. According to the same book they state they believe only 1.6 million are still around. If there would have only been that amount made that would have been 1 per 57 people (instead of 4 for every person). That is a lot destroyed. So those whom think that there are too many cards that would have to be destroyed or trashed to make 1988 topps a worth while collectible really only need to look at the evolution of t206s.

I think about when I die my family will be left with all the 80s cards still taking up room. They will try to get make money off them, but will soon find it isn't worth their time to get someone to buy. So they will be tossed. Some people are already tossing them.

So in 2080 is it possible that the 80s cards will finally hit their once believed potential for income...

No way in hell!!
 

It will be the 1987 Topps all the way!! :D

I still have a case back in my parent's attic from when I was 18!!

Here's two problems I see with this line of reasoning: distribution and ephemera status.

The T206 set was distributed as singles and were secondary to the cigarettes. Pure ephemera. Many were immediately taken out of circulation when the pack was thrown away. I have a feeling most non-surviving T206s were destroyed in the first 25 years of their existence.

1988 Topps were distributed in large numbers (sets, packs, etc) and the people who bought them were buying the cards as collectables, not the gum. There are still millions of sealed sets sitting in people's garages. Even if they are considered worthless, they will not be thrown away because they are no longer ephemera. Even if they are worthless you will be hard pressed to convince someone that they are LITERALLY trash, on the level of an empty cigarette pack.

BUT WHO KNOWS. My grandchildren might be in for a big payday someday... Definitely interesting to consider.

"Legendary presents, the 2098 dingy condo find. Featuring Hall of Famers such as Mark Mcguire, Jose Canseco and 17x All-Star Pete Rose!"

My point, though, is will that case still be around when the year 2100 approaches. Prior to then someone may just decide to pitch it because it wasn't worth it (just as several thousands of other people are doing the same thing).

OR maybe your case will survive the purge of cards that will happen when all the people that collected through the 80's die and their cards are pitched as their estates are broken down. In 2091 some people will be clearing out the house and it will be the 1987 Topps "Black Swamp Find" of its day. ;)

I do see the differences but again will anyone past our generation care? Our offspring won't want to deal with them. We hold on to them because of the original collectible value, our offspring won't. My Grandparents were collectors of certain things yet when my Grandpa passed away my aunts and uncles pitched a lot of it. Then when, recently, my Grandma went to a retirement home she couldn't take most of it and my Aunts and Uncles tossed the remaining bits. I was lucky enough to find a box with some rubber-banded baseball cards years prior to this cleansing and they were saved, but the other collectibles were pitched minus a few nostalgic pieces.


The t206s may not have made it past the first 25 years, but if 88 topps arent going to make it past 75 years. Maybe it isn't in 100 years, but what about in 150 years? Just a thought. Another thought would be what about instead of 88 topps cards you compared it to cards that were distributed by other means like cracker jack prize cards that were distributed in the early 90s? Or cereal box cards, or Denny's cards. Do these cards have a place in the future (not our futures, but several generations down the road)?

The other issue you have is that 1988 doesn't have ANY stars. It's the worst year for rookie cards in the last three decades. Even the stars of the day, like Mattingly, McGriff, Dwight Evans, etc won't have the same baseball stature in 100 years that Cobb, Matty, and Walter Johnson have today.

If the T206 set had no stars it wouldn't be collectable at all. It would be like the other hundreds of tobacco card sets of flowers and models and whatnot that were produced that really have little value.

I'm glad you didn't lump 1987 in with your statement Mike, because clearly the rookie cards of Cory Snyder and Oddibe (young again) McDowell are poised to make the leap one of these years...:D

I think the problem with this line of thinking is that they also made lots of Donruss, Fleer, Score cards in 1988. They also made a lot of each in 1989 and 1990. It gets to the point, where people won't pay a lot for a specific common, because he can find 15 other cards for the same person. If you compare specific stars, the amount of different Ty Cobb cards available pales in comparison to someone like Tony Gwynn.

One other thing that supposedly took a lot of cards and such out of circulation, was a paper drive during WWII. I don't think we will see another paper drive like take cards out of the population.

I encourage people to destroy cards from this era though, for the benefit on others such as myself. I wouldn't mind seeing a shredder at the National shows, where people just shred commons from the 1987-1991 era. You don't need seven cards of Alvaro Espinoza, so get rid of six of them now!

Good point. It really makes me think that the survival rate may even be lower than t206. The only real issue with the argument is the Southern League has its own following (some people collect just this subset) and those aren't the stars. So maybe we can compare the future to that of Obaks or Red Boarder Old Mill cards?

In the end this was just random thoughts I had about the abundance of t206s I see, and how I constantly hear that the 80s (particularly 88) was the start of mass producing sets.
Even going to shows and looking for prewar the prewar dealers have stacks and stacks of t206, but I don't see the same stacks of e90s or even t205s. I made the mistake of asking one of these dealers once where their stack of t205s where as they had 6 stacks of t206 cards among other prewar stacks. He looked at me puzzled and said "I don't know if I have any. I may have one somewhere."