baseball playoffs
 

nfl may be #1, nba have the most visible stars, hockey is trying to stay relevant...but i'm a baseball fan from way back and this is the best time of the year! let the crapshoot-ness begins...

some observations:

--injuries have probably ended clev and wash years.
--jake arrieta turned back into a pumpkin (i'm probably still sore abt him winning CY over kershaw and greinke)
--the cubs are the overwhelming favs so that means they probably won't win
--by the metrics bos is the best AL team and should make it to WS...but tex have home field WTF
--rooting for blue jays over balt so we have more international incidents
--f*** the giants and those BATs( bay area tools)
--finally LET'S GO DODGERS~!

due to the influx of teams into the playoffs (first with the wildcard and now 2 wildcard teams per league) the playoffs are becoming more and more of a crapshoot than ever before. Predicting the winner is pretty tough.

best teams would probably be Boston vs Cubs

result will probably be something screwy like Cleveland vs Giants

I fear the Indians of Cleveland.

Even year -- it's Giants time again. And the addition of Cueto sure doesn't hurt.

true, but their bats are pretty lousy and their pen sketchy.... IDK, I like the Indians team, but if Texas gets good pitching from their top 3,(or if they meet the Red Sox in the ALCS) their massive offense could get them in. (seriously, a Rangers vs Red Sox ALCS would be 8-7 every night!)

I think giants get past NY but no way their even year magic will escape the cubs curse... That narrative is more powerful this year and the cubs patient lineup will wear out sf starters and get to the weak Giants bullpen.

this makes perfect baseball sense except... Cubs.

They will find way to Cubs it up again.BUT.......maybe not, hell the Red Sox finally won right?

I am mourning a very unCardinals-like season by the Cardinals.

Haha... I thought we were supposed dislike you SoCal'ers, and you were just supposed to not care. Regardless, I also love the MLB post season, and love that the Giants v Dodgers passion is alive and well!

Go Giants!!... and "Don't look at me!"

(not for a second taking the Mets for granted, that's a gonna be great game on Wed... but if the Giants can get by the NYM, I love the match up vs the Cubs)

Nothing personal Ian, just baseball :)

++++1

unCardinals-like season?

They finished 86-76. Sure they finished in 2nd place in the NL and didn't make the playoffs, but that doesn't mean they didn't play to their normal standards.

2006: 83-78
2007: 78-84
2008: 86-76
2009: 91-71
2010: 86-76
2010: 90-72
2012: 88-74
2013: 97-65
2014: 90-72
2015: 100-62

They seemed very inline with the last 10 years.

I was referring more to their relatively at least for them starting pitching and not very reliable infield defense this year. It got very frustrating to watch.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Best game of the post season may be Wednesday night with Bumgarner and Syndergaard. That game may turn out 1-0 with no more than 5 hits for each team.

There were also a lot of frustrating instances of outfielders throwing to the wrong base and just not being very fundamentally sound.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I thought the same thing Robert. The Cards record is somewhat in line, but the fundamental playmaking seemed to be missing this year. But look at me, a Royals fan talking. We have some issues to tend to this off season. GM says KC will have to cut back on payroll ( living beyond their means ), and it's unlikely the team will be able to sign Hosmer longterm.

Well, never mind the income generated from the AS game in 2012, and post season appearances the past two seasons, and getting to the Series. Not sure where THAT money went????

Apparently the $$$ went to pay Gordon. If the GM spent money that could have been used to sign Hosmer, this was a very bad mistake. The same could be said for the $$$ used to sign Kennedy.

Unless Moore was told directly from Hosmer that he will not sign. Appears that 2017 will be Hosmer's last season in KC....

Totally, I'm just playing too.

I went to school in SLO, front lines in the N CA vs SoCal tussle. It was re-affirmed to me over and over that we caredway more than you guys about all of it-- the water, the sports, and our general "Beat LA!" mentality, which sort of made us come across as up tight and insecure... while you guys typically seemed too involved doing other fun things to be bothered by the rivalry. Jim Rome (SoCal native, school in SB) further reinforces this POV occasionally on his show.

So with this said, I love it when things flare up a bit, and there some fire coming from So Cal. The Bum vs Puig thing is ridiculous but marvelous at the same time. The Dodgers' T-shirts were funny as hell, but then the Giants swept LA response. Was at Friday's game, Posey got knocked down then brushed back in the same AB, and Belt got drilled. It's been intense between the teams, and great theater all year. Oh man, I so want an LA vs SF NLCS.

EDWIN!! :D

The Texas series is going to be a gooder, I think?!?!

Epic first game, I think tex was rooting for Baltimore.

Madbum vs Noah should be a classic if Thor shows up... U know Madbum is gonna bring it and he will render the Mets lefties useless granderson Bruce loney etc.

I agree. Hosmer would have been better money spent than Gordon. When you're a mid-market team, like KC and StL, there is only so much $ to go around. Therein lies the importance of a solid farm system to produce the players.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Wow, MadBum is just unreal. Have seen the stat folks pick apart his game a bit, but he's so much more than his stats. This includes the total confidence he projects to the rest of the team in these otherwise super high pressure ballgames.

I also hear the "W" doesn't matter anymore, and am guessing Thor's FIP or WAR or whatever was better than Bum tonight (based on K's), but one guy goes 7 and leaves after 105 pitches (nice game)... one guys goes 120 pitches and rips that W. In October, I'll take the second guy anytime.

Go Giants!!

108 double stitches in a baseball, 108 years since the Cubs last World Series parade. Chicago in a walk.

Agreed.

Unfortunantly, KC has wiffed on their first and second round picks during the past 15 much more than hit on them.

Teams with market size like KC has got to nail those draft picks.

I disagree, well, maybe you shouldn't have given Gordon that contract, but replacing Hosmer won't be difficult as finding a power hitting 1b is generally the easiest position to fill in MLB. I believe your team's issues have more to do with a down seasons as much as anything. If Moustakas, Hosmer, Gordon have career avg seasons, you probably make the wildcard. The pitching was decent, (around league avg) but the bats all seemed to have down seasons at the same time, it happens.

We will have to agree to disagree.

Hosmer is entering prime years, and will not come cheap. He is a difficult fill due to that. Those guys aren't falling around like leaves from a tree. Maybe they do where you live but not here.

KC has a lot of "if's" that need to be met each season for things to go right.

Gordon by far is the easier fill in terms of expense and production compared with Hosmer.

he was below replacement level in 2016 and about avg with the bat, sure he will probably improve on that a tad, but there are a lot of guys out there like Brandon Moss, Adam Lind, Mitch Moreland...etc that could be had for very little $$$ and free the team up to trade Hosmer before he leaves in free agency.

Kind of done with players at the end of a career. Really don't build around those guys.

Good role players but hardly what you want every day.

Hosmer in 2016 was kinda like that too tho.

I'm not saying "build around" those guys, but if you admit that it's probably time for a rebuild f some sort, moving Hosmer for a prospect would help and one of the guys I mentioned could fill in for a year or two. Then you can either try to keep Moustakas and some of the others or move them for prospects too before they are free agents, that frees up payroll and would allow you to make some moves after 2018 and be ready to compete again 2019 and forward.

Putting a "Playoffs" spin back into this thread
 

Cub fans, win or lose, it's gonna be a really exciting and fun week. Can't wait for tomorrow!

(these pics are in no way being presumptuous about this year... just really love them)
Attachment 247420Attachment 247421


Will add--- after seeing the Royals up close in 2014 and 2015, I think Hosmer is a guy that's more valuable than the stats show. He plays with some serious fire (and balls), and think that is infectious in a club house. His dash home against the Mets is something that few guys have the situational wherewithal to consider, and fewer have the nuts to attempt. I'd be sad to see him leave. I love the heart/fire those Royals teams played with.

Did Dickey get left off of the Jays postseason roster?

Dickey was left of the playoff roster. I also think the Rangers left there brains off their playoff roster from what I've seen today. Sweet!

Rangers are an odd team, you rarely win 95 games while posting only a +8 run differential. Lots of comebacks and close wins matched up with several times being blown out. I have no idea what to make of them!

Too bad Dickey was left off. I still love watching him pitch. Today seems like it would of been the perfect day for Dickey to pitch four or five innings and save Estrada a little bit of work.

Blue Jays are the sleeper team in this years playoffs, have very good starting pitching, and a roster that can score runs..got knocked out by KC last season in the ALCS, They have been playing playoff baseball for about 2 weeks now, and hooked most of the best in the AL east down the stretch, needless to say I think the soft finish the Rangers had, and the layoff, had an impact on the Rangers. 1 game does not make a series, but if things do not change quickly for them , it will be over quickly...It is almost like the "wild card" teams are at an advantage because they play every day, where division winners suffer from a long layoff..One thing is certain, it will be an electric atmosphere at Rogers centre in Toronto when the Jays arrive home (by the way the beer can tosser was arrested and charged today) :)

Pulling for the Indians or Blue Jays this year. Just anyone but Boston or the Scrubs PLEASE!

Mission accomplished for one night. We'll have to see if it continues today.

I am the opposite. I fret everytime Dickey pitches and I am glad he got left off the roster.
Great pitcher when he is on but unfortunately he wasn't on enough this year.


Same. Hoping Indians get by Boston and of course the Jay's by Texas. Both are looking pretty good so far but it's a long ways to go yet before the fat lady sings. Fingers crossed!

Dodgers-Toles
 

Smart for Toles to get the Start for Game 1 for the Dodgers...which = WIN

SWEEP!!!

What a game! :D

Jays pulled off the sweep, and I for one would love to see them play the Indians. It would be nice too see a couple of the small market teams battle it out in the ALCS. Blue Jays offence has come to life and as a Jays fan the team could not have picked a better time to get things rolling. As stated before, this clubs starting pitching staff is vastly under rated by sports media and now everyone gets a chance to see how well they have pitched this season. Jays will have a nice break before the next series kicks off, and the rest is needed after all the tough games they have played over the past few weeks down the stretch. Baseball is a great game to follow, especially when your favourite team is participating in the playoffs...Go Jays Go.

have no rooting interest in the AL, but would love to see clev/tor also. actually carlos santana was a dodgers prospect at one point so i've always kept up to see how he's doing so go clev i guess (plus tor has a reputation of questioning every strike called against them, like the clippers of the nba). i'm also tired of david ortiz, it's like every borderline all star/hof caliber guy is getting a year-long farewell tour now. (/hot takes alert)

Giants didn't get the split I was hoping for in Chi, but can't to see what should be another amazing matchup tonight. Doesn't get much better than Bum vs Arrietta in a possible elimination game.

I'm pulling for the Cubs to win it all...after all, can't we let that happen after 108 years?


.

It would be fun to see and they are easily the best team, but man.... I just get the feeling that they will Cubs it up and be left holding the bag another year.

I feel the same way. I think if it was any of the other 29 teams that had that type of team and season we wouldn't have that quiet lingering doubt but since it's the Cubs....

Drew

Yeah, I'm not holding my breath. I invested myself into the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Cubs fans are mostly scar tissue. - George Will

Did anyone on the east coast other than myself actually stay up to watch the end of the Cubs-Giants game last night?

Yeah, way to go Cubs. Tie it up in the 9th and lose it in the 13th.

Should have just lost it in the 9th and I could have gotten two extra hours of sleep. :mad:

As a Giants fan, I am not sad at the outcome. Nor am I surprised anymore by how they win or lose. I guess you probably view the Cubs the same way. LOL

My better half did say when it was tied after nine, it was going to go 13 innings.

And Clayton for two more playoff games chalks up a 6.17 ERA. And once again implodes in the 7th, although he had some help after he left. The post season continues, IMO, to be a huge black mark on his otherwise astonishing career.

[QUOTE=Peter_Spaeth;1593032]And Clayton for two more playoff games chalks up a 6.17 ERA. And once again implodes in the 7th, although he had some help after he left. The post season continues, IMO, to be a huge black mark on his otherwise astonishing career.[/QUOTE}

well he did get the win for game 1 and the dodgers won both games he started.

yeah his pitching line not great but 10 + Ks isnt bad in his last start with short rest . If all of those uglier starts in the playoffs in years past were all 'wins' no would care about whether the pitching line was pretty....this year the dodgers are 2-0 on games that he started..

Agreed. Kershaw's performance in post season continues to be extremely lacking but then again the whole team seems to go into hibernation.

[QUOTE=1952boyntoncollector;1593035]6.17. Sorry but that's pathetic for someone at his ultra-elite, all-time great talent level. He was at 4.65 in 14 games before tonight.

[QUOTE=1952boyntoncollector;1593035]That is a really bad argument IMO. They won despite him not because of him.

interesting fact...pedro baez for the 3rd year in a row has come in and allowed an inherited runner of kershaw to score. in his 12 career starts, 8 of 11 of kershaw's baserunners have scored. that was a damn gutsy performance. if you thought that start somehow tarnished his legacy we're watching different games.

[QUOTE=Peter_Spaeth;1593044]he did pitch on short rest..and his team had a sizeable lead and didnt give up runs that put the dodgers behind..

and again..if he was 12-0 with a 6.00 era no one would be saying how bad he was... peyton manning had the worst performance i have seen in a super bowl and he is a super bowl champion

If the Broncos lose that game, then the stats matter for Peyton...

Same thing for Kershaw...no one will say this year was a failure for him when both times he left the game leading or tied and the Dodgers won both of his games.

Plus inherited runners scoring really skew era when looking at a short sample size... kershaw i believe was in line to be the winning pitcher when he left the game..

if he does that 4-5 more times (leaving the game with dodgers winning or tied and Dodgers win all of the games) with a 6.00 era and the Dodgers win the World series, i really really dont think the stats matters

If Sandy Koufax had given up 3 runs and then loaded the bases in the 7th before being chased, nobody would have said, oh what a gutsy performance. Kershaw in the regular season has been the equal of Koufax at his peak. He just can't pitch in the post-season worth a damn, for the most part.

And yes the bullpen let him down. But an elite pitcher doesn't load em up and hope his bullpen can rescue him.

Well Koufax started 7 games in the postseason and his record was 4-3 and Kershaw is 3-6

id rather have a pitcher give up 3 runs and get the win then give up 2 runs and get the loss. Yes i know there are many other factors but if you are up 5 runs you tend to give up runs easier than up 1-0 if you are focusing on ERA. Afterall if you lose 1-0 that means the opposing pitcher beat you out so we should be honoring that guy and not the guy that lost 1-0 for example.

Kershaw has been bad in the postseason but i dont see how this year he added to being a bad postseason pitcher with 11ks today and his team going 2-0 in his starts (getting the win in one of them and in line to get the win in the other) in a best of 5 series when his team was the underdog..

Bullpen shouldnt be relied to always rescue someone but its not normal to allow 85% of the inherited runners to score either, If there were any inherited runners on base after Koufax left any games, i will assume less than 85% of the time they scored, again if there even were any

4-3 with an 0.95 ERA. Case closed.

right he won one more game than he lost. So in a Huge game he had a little over a 50/50 chance to win . Its not the total runs that matter, its when you give up the runs.

The opposing pitchers just took better care of business (bob shaw, kaat, palmer ) than Koufax did in those 3 losses or about half the games in pitched in the postseason.

double post

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...a01&t=p&post=1

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...l01&t=p&post=1

If you want to even suggest these are comparable, you can have that discussion with yourself. :D Spin it any way you want to. Kershaw has been a major disappointment in the post-season overall, and (so far anyhow, who knows he may not be done) he has been mediocre at best this year.

Not here to compare, but i think people would be surprised that Koufax was only 4-3 in the postseason and kershaw isnt close to be being done yet..and like the other poster said, there were a ton of inherited runners that scored that could easily of dropped Kershaws era to the 3.00 range and more runs are scored in todays game then they were in Koufax's time....

Basically if Urias started game 1 and game 4 for the dodgers i really do not think the dodgers win both games. In game 4, if the Nationals jumped out ahead in the first few innings the Dodgers i think lose. The fact kershaw put up all those early zeros means something to go along with 11ks

Just saying Kerhaw really has not disappointed in the playoffs thus far THIS YEAR with his team winning both games...and really nothing to criticize him for this year when he got the W and he was in line for the W in game 4 on short rest and the Dodgers winning both of his starts in a 5 game series..

this is 100% wrong. pitcher wins mean doodley squat. You are basically arguing that a pitcher goes 0-6 in the playoffs with a 1.12 ERA and a 1.50 FIP was worse than a guy who goes 4-2 with a 6.70 era and a 7.05 FIP.

Why should the pitcher get credit for how good his offense performed?

+1. Or conversely, said to have performed poorly because he lost? So Kershaw (W, ERA 5.40) pitched better in his NLDS Game #1 than Cueto (L, ERA 1.13) did in his? One would have to be a fool to propose such a nonsense.

Surprised Cubs fans are silent after the last couple nights. As a Giants fan, those were two of the most unforgettable playoff games I've been to. Game 3 was the ultimate high, Game 4 was the ultimate gut punch (still recovering). Can't believe Giants gave up 4 in the 9th... but then again I can, because the irpen's done it all year (30 blown saves and 2 more in consecutive nights vs the Cubs).

Can't take anything away from the Cubs, and give them full credit. In addition to being the most talented team in the league, they are incredibly scrappy and resilient. That said, it's a shame for all baseball fans this series couldn't have gone back to Chicago for game 5 and what would have been a EPIC matchup between Cueto and Lester.

They are scrappy, I saw four walk off games this year. They just don't give up. Unlike other years, we in the Chicago area, aren't hearing too much about the past; '69,'84, '89, etc... It's as if it's buried and forgotten, the guys playing today don't care, the fans don't care, everyone seems to be going for the kill. There seems to be a confidence like never before.

Cueto would have been very tough, he matches up well against the Cubs.

I know about pitch counts, but I don't get yanking a guy who was in complete mastery of the game.

matt moore already had 1 TJ and various other arm trouble,, does bochy really want to risk moore's entire career over 1 game at 120 pitches? he made the right call. the cubs were facing the prospect of cueto/bumgarner game 5, that would've been fun and i'm sure the la/wash winner were rooting for the giants.

+ whatever number you want to put here.

Bochy is one of the smartest managers but I felt he really blew this one as well. Moore was pitching better in the 7th and 8th than he was pitching earlier. If you're plan is/was to go 1-on-1 pitcher vs batter for the first 2 anyway, why not bring Moore back out in the 9th and see how he works the first 2? I mean it's not like the Giants have a real shut-em-down closer.

I agree that Ws dont matter at all statisticlaly but we all know how history looks back at games. If Kershaws teams won every one of his past starts, noone would be saying how bad he was in the postseaon if he was 9-0. .

ERA isnt the sole indicator either or really important at all if your team wins every game. If your team scores 9 runs in the first inning, nobody cares if you then give up 5 runs in 7 innings which would lead to a brutal ERA but would give you the W. I do not think you would blame a pitcher for giving up 5 runs in that situation.

Like i said, if Manning lost the superbowl last year, we would be hearing a lot more of his legacy being tarnished. However his team bailed him out and it does matter when you look back at his career 20 years from now.

Just at it would matter for Kershaw if he won all of his postseason games but had an era of 6.00

What was Manning's QBR for the superbowl, does it matter since he won (even though it was a team win) They will still say has 2 'rings'.

In addition, Curry wasnt great for his lone Golden State Championship but his team got the 'W'. Wins matter even if you arent the one that was the main contributer and were supposed to be is all i am saying

Again, to keep on topic, i dont see Kershaw hurting his post season image this year with his team winning both of his starts..

welll... quarterbacks are like presidents they get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. I think it's an unfair comparison to make (qb vs pitcher I mean)


The thing is, if my team put up 9 runs early I would expect my pitcher to throw strikes and get outs rather than give up 5 runs. and if he did I wouldn't say he had a good outing because the team won, I would say the offense carried the day despite a lousy performance.

History tends tends to be written by sports writers, and they are moving towards a metric way of thinking so eventually some of these antiquated narratives will be replaced with more modern thinking ones and all will be well. stats don't lie, and true it is a small sample size, but Kershaw has had some issues in the postseason. IDK if it is nerves or opposing teams are less prone to take pitches and swing away earlier or what, but he needs to make some adjustments to his strategy apparently.

I agree with most of what you said actually.

The only thing is for me is i do think a pitcher did his job if his team scores 9 runs for him if he gives up 5 runs..

things happen in a 9 run lead...you have a guy on 3rd with less than 2 outs you dont care if he scores. You also would rather have a guy hit a homer out the park then walk him when one guy is on base. It could be argued that a pitcher trying to keep his era in the 1.00-2.00 range in a 9-0 game may risk giving up a HUGE inning if he doesnt take the sure outs.

Even if its only a 1% chance that you give up 10 runs, i wouldnt risk it. Id rather give up 5 runs for certain and nothing more if up 9 runs than have a 1 percent chance to give up 10 runs with the attempt of keeping my ERA down to the 1-2 range


I know i am focusing on extreme outliers. i just trying to help out the pitchers that focus on the team wins then their era in all of the samples in between.

If Dodgers end up winning game 5 Kershaw could conceivably be top 5 guy for MVP of the series (would go to Janson.Turner )...thats not exactly terrible

true you might not be too concerned if he scores, but it would be much better if he didn't. and no, I would not rather a batter hit a bomb than walk, the odds of scoring on first with no outs isn't all that high, the odds of scoring with a HR are 100%!


sure a pitcher can "skate by" giving up 5 runs, but I wouldn't feel to confident about his next playoff start. I want pitchers to dominate and keep runs off the board if it's 10-0 or 1-1.

feels like the last few posts could be jack morris' argument for his hall of fame candidacy...which i'm not a fan of.

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

i don't remember him being hit hard much, just some weird 7th innings haven't looked at his number closely but his OPS-against in the playoffs shouldn't be a big jump off from his regular season. the start in washington to open the series was the first time i could remember seeing him labor in forever and thinking this is not peak kershaw.

as is we're all hands on deck today...i still feel urias should've started game 4 at home and have a fresh kershaw for game 5 today in washington...but maybe the FO is thinking ahead if they can get by wash to have kershaw pitch 2-3x vs the cubs.

Really rooting for a Cubs v. Indians series. 176 years of combined futility (Cubs last World Series win 1908, Indians 1948) . Not likely to see that again in our lifetime, unless you live to be a 177 year old Mariners fan :)

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

OPS .564 regular season .658 post season.

well, sure, but the thing is they had to win two games to make the next rd and the argument is will a regular rest Urias in 4 and Kershaw in game 5 be better than a short rest kershaw in game 4 and a short rest Hill in game 5?

an argument can be made that the former was the better option.

Exactly. If Urias pitches game 4 there would not have been a game 5. Kershaw was their only hope and a gamble at that given his postseason history. The team itself is not the same in postseason but aside from a great strike out to walk ratio Kershaw is absolutely not the same dominant pitcher that he is during the regular season.

I like Rich Hill tonight if the Dodgers can give him a few runs.