First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?
 

I nominate Nick Markakis. More than reasonable chance at 3k hits (will have about 2250 by the end of this season, turns 35 after season is over) no shot at HOF.

Anyone else?

EDIT: Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.

For a while, I thought Starlin Castro was a sure thing, given how young he started.

I honestly don't know. Nobody else close enough to, or over 2,000 hits with a realistic shot at 3,000.

When he comes back, Robinson Cano still has a shot. He currently has 2,417 hits and he's 35.

Steve

Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.

I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),

Good call, forgot he got to 3000

I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!

I get what you are saying; it is an interesting debate. I just think it is really dicey to project health and production for guys age 35+. :)

On one of the other message boards I post on, I remember there being a huge debate for how many hits Derek Jeter would finish with. Jeter had a great year as a 38 year old in 2012 with 216 hits (over 3,300 hits through his age 38 season). Some of the people in that discussion were projecting him for 4,000 hits based on that 2012 season. Most people in the thread thought it was a given that he would at least get to Hank Aaron at 3,771 for third all-time.

The following year, he played in only 17 games. Two years after that great season, he retired. I know that is just one anecdotal example, but Markakis still seems really far away to me.

If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.

Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?

Well before he got to 3000 Bill James called Biggio the best player in baseball, and did a whole analysis showing why he was better than Griffey. The master of small ball.

500 HR too. He is clearly in if baseball forgives the roids.

Biggio doesn't belong in the Hall really. Classic accumulator. I think Whitaker and Grich were both more deserving. So 3000 probably played a sizable role in getting him in. That being said, Markakis doesn't even compare all that well with Biggio so I don't think 3000 would put him over the top.

Sheffield is a clear steroid case too though.

I did not realize that. I thought he wasn't. I don't think he would have gotten in anyhow though.

Read Bill James on Biggio.

In terms of HOF there is something to be said about consistency and Longevity. It may not be sexy but it's very impressive and as worthy of guys who had shorter careers and more spectacular seasons.

Sheffield is an admitted steroid user. He used the "clear" and the "cream" with Bonds. Fred McGriff with 493 has the most home runs by a "clean" player not in the HoF.

Hard for me to see why the Crime Dog isn't of the same caliber as Dawson, Rice, Perez and Cepeda, though I haven't studied him extensively, just my impression.

Nope. He decided to take a different kind of shot instead. What an idiot!

When did he admit it? I don't recall reading that...though I certainly believe he did.

The problem is that Perez, Rice, and Cepeda were pretty bad choices for the hall. (Dawson is a step above those guys.) Perez is in because the hall has always looked kindly on good players who played for great teams. (Earle Combs, Tony Lazzeri, and so on.) Cepeda and Rice were mistakes. But basically these guys are indistinguishable from hordes of other guys, and McGriff is one of the ones who got left out. (Along with Fred Lynn, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Williams, Dale Murphy, Bob Elliot, Torii Hunter, Brian Giles, Norm Cash, Ellis Burkes, Bernie Williams, and on and on.)

As for Ichiro, he won me over on the HOF thing eventually. The more interesting question is whether he's going to get into the Japanese hall of fame. He was extraordinarily good while playing for Orix, but he came to America at 27. Most of his career has been over here. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that he goes in. Ichiro is the proof that the best Japanese players are world class baseball players. I mean, it's hard to doubt that Oh or Nagashima were world class, but Ichiro is the proof that they were. There is also some precedent here. Hideki Matsui is in the Japanese hall of fame, even though he left Japan at 29. I'd guess that Ichiro is the first player to be inducted into both halls of fame.

WOW! What a petty guy bonds is! Totally unredeemable IMO.

You never saw Rice play did you?

I can't believe I'm reading posts that suggest even in the slightest that Ichiro is a borderline HoFer or shouldn't be a HoFer at all. :confused:

+1
All-Star and Gold Glove RFer for 10 straight years, an MVP, led the league in hits 7 years. Had speed, cannon arm, great teammate, never heard any bad news about him. Whats not to like?

Rice comes up often as the weakest HOFer. I saw him play his entire career. Is he George Brett? Nope. But there are DOZENS of guys in the HOF worse than Rice. I have no issue with a bigger HOF where Murphy, Parker, Foster, Harvey, Hernandez, and Mattingly are right there alongside him. And each of those guys is better than many of the guys in now.

Ichiro had three problems (1) he was a corner outfielder who didn't have any power, (2) he never drew a walk so his on-base percentage was not as good as you would expect given his batting average and, by far most importantly, (3) he spent most of his peak years in Japan. Most players produce most of their value in their 20s, and Ichiro spent most of his 20s overseas. If you combine his production in Japan and USA he's easily qualified, but historically the only non-MLB play that the American hall recognizes is the negro leagues. (Otherwise guys like Buzz Arlett would be in the hall.) Like I said above, however, I think that even his just-USA performance is worthy of enshrinement, and I suspect that he'll get some extra credit in Japan and get inducted there too.

WHICH Harvey?

DOUG Harvey's already in.

MATT Harvey won't ever get in.

Harvey DENT...now, HE might get enough support!


.

Does it really matter where your peak years were played if you still wind up with the career Ichiro had?

He had his faults, one being neither Yaz or Williams and not getting along with the press. He was amazing for several years, and when things fell off, he took a lot of heat for being merely above average. I'm convinced a lot of it was that pitchers got him into a lot of double plays by pitching him low and he never adjusted. There was also a thing later in his career where someone in the press suggested he needed glasses. He got a pair, and ugly pair, and hit a lot better until he abandoned them after taking lots of flack for just how ugly his glasses were.

Sort of odd how people also say Lynn should be in, when he had only a few good years, many ruined by the almost required "long drive Lynn goes back to the wall jumps and ... pulls his groin" (I liked him as a player, but wow was he fragile)

Of course nobody talks about Evans who had about as good an arm as Ichiro, and had some power.

I would have an issue with that. The HoF should be harder to get into, not easier. It isn't the Hall of Very Good.

Player X is in so Player Y should also be in always serves to lower the overall quality of the inductees.

Totally agree. The Hall of Fame should be the farthest thing away from handing out Participation Trophies.

There will always be passionate arguments for those who aren't in...

Minnie Minoso and Luis Tiant are the two I support for induction. I really hated the fact that Minnie passed away without that honor, but after the way Ron Santo was treated, I'm not surprised.

You always see the Jim Rice guys who turn out whenever someone rains on his parade. And it's always the same argument: did you see him play?

So question for you guys: did you think Jim Rice was better than Albert Belle? You would have seen them both play by virtue of seeing Rice.

I saw a lot of Rice from 81 on when I moved here and I was not a huge fan, honestly. It seemed he killed a huge number of rallies with weak grounders to short. I really wonder if, overall, Evans was not a better player despite obviously not having the few megaseasons, which of course you can't take away from Rice.

Evans was the better player. Part of the reason that he doesn't get as much recognition as he deserves is that his best season, when he led the league in HRs, was cut short by the strike.

Yes.

I'd rate them pretty close overall as hitters, Belle maybe a bit better overall, while Rice had more power. I've never seen the ball get out of the park so fast. No lengthy HR calls with him up.

First one to get the 3000 not in the hall
 

The answer..... PETE ROSE

Its funny that this thread got to four pages before someone mentioned the most obvious example.

What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.

Agree completely with this^^^^

Also Fred McGriff gets no love. I feel like he is a HOFer, 94 strike probably cost him the 500 HR club, and unfortunately for him he played in the Steroid Era and was never associated with PEDs

no way Nick will have another healthy year as well. Funny how one year can erase years and years of questionable health.. Ryan Zimmerman last year erased all of those unhealthy years and look at him this year...health issue.

Lets have a guy have back to back good years when they are in their 30s before we project another 4 or so years..

He's 34 and almost 1,000 hits shy of 3,000. I don't even see a remote chance he reaches 3,000. He hasn't even gotten 900 hits in the past 5 seasons while in his prime. Is there any reason to think he'll be an every day player till he's 40? How many of those are there?

For 10 points no cheating name the only player under 30 with 1500 hits. It isn't Altuve.

He played like he was in the dead ball era. He had some amazing abilities, but the way he used them weren't necessarily the best for winning baseball. He was literally dropping balls in front of outfielders almost every time he made contact. It led to tons of hits and very few extra bases, advanced runners or RBI's.

In his lead off at bat or when he was at bat with nobody on base he was a superior player, although even then if he was on 2nd (or even third with his speed he should have had a lot more triples) he would have scored even more often.

Any time there was a man on base he hurt his team. Balls dropping in front of outfielders mean a guy on first usually only gets to second and a guy on second can't score. Not all singles are created equal, outfielders were almost always coming in on his hits setting them up to throw.

People compare him to Boggs and Gwynn which is crazy. They both had a TON more extra base hits than Ichiro and neither of them will ever be mistaken for a power hitter. Plus I hate when a guy hangs on at the end of his career for milestone numbers. Ichiro has been pretty useless since 2010 if I recall correctly.

If you like WAR he had 2 superstar seasons and 5 additional all-star seasons (again trusting memory here) that pales in comparison to Boggs or Gwynn.

He is, to me, Hall of Very Good. Maybe if he hadn't lost 3 or 4 years of his prime to Japan the case would be different, especially if they were superstar caliber seasons like his best two.

If there is a stat for the batter with the highest percentage of his hits being singles, I bet Ichiro is at the top.

Ps It's 81 percent, Rose was 75 or so.

I believe Pete Rose has the most singles out of anybody. Was he a better or worse hitter than Ichiro? For posterity, they both had 10 seasons of 200 or more hits. The only difference is Ichiro's ten seasons were consecutive.

Rose's OPS was 27 points higher. 746 doubles to Ichiro's 362.

Shall we play baseball reference?

Rose

Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 64 (14), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 239 (26), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 311 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 55 (65), Average HOFer ≈ 50


Ichiro


Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 43 (34), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 142 (114), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 234 (30), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 44 (128), Average HOFer ≈ 50

I only mentioned Rose vis a vis the singles. I don't think they were the same player stats-wise but I think they possessed the same ability to hit the ball where someone wasn't.

OK here's a question, who is the only pitcher to face both Rose and Ichiro?

Gotta be Jamie Moyer, right?

No.

Orosco?

Yes.:D

Still no answer, under 30 and 1500 hits...

Castro?

Your perfect record in this thread is over. Negative.

I'm pretty sure he meant Garvey. LOL

OK so we can add "didn't get many extra base hits or RBI" to the list of his drawbacks. That still doesn't get us anywhere near to outweighing the positives on his resume though. He was a leadoff guy, he stole more than 500 bases and scored more than 100 runs for eight seasons in a row, so obviously he was contributing something of exceptional value even if it didn't translate into a bunch of RBI


Just to be clear: getting a bloop single with a runner on base doesn't hurt your team. Its not as good as getting a double obviously, but is preferable to recording an out. A guy getting a bloop single 1/3 of the time in that situation is arguably preferable to a guy hitting a line drive to right 1/4 of the time.

Agree about the Boggs and Gwynn comparison being inaccurate.

I'm neutral about the hanging on at the end of the career for milestones since a ton of HOFers have done that. Its basically irrelevant to HOF consideration IMHO - even Ruth hung on longer than he should have.

Also, Ichiro's last years weren't entirely unproductive: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-old-and-good/

His career WAR isn't spectacular by HOF standards, nor is it an outlier though as there are a lot of guys with much lower WAR already in, including some big names. His WAR just makes him an average HOFer but I don't think you can use it effectively to put him in the Hall of Very Good, given all the other stuff he has going for him. The numerous records, including important ones, the trailblazer role that he played as the first Japanese position player, and all the other stuff that is too well known to be worth repeating here.

I think the fact that he played his prime years in Japan just adds to his resume (or at the very least it does not detract from it), he actually played 7 seasons in Japan and won the batting title in each of them. I know they don't give much weight to NPB stats in making HOF decisions, but its an extremely impressive footnote to his career - he managed to squeeze periods of brilliant dominance into not just one but two major leagues.

I wouldn't rate him a first tier HOFer, but I think it's beyond any serious question that Ichiro should be in.

Will Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez be enshrined in the HOF within the next 10 years?

Yes without a doubt

Without a doubt? It's been 6 years for Bonds. He's still very far away.

I disagree completely. How is Ben Johnson viewed today, 30 years after he lost his Olympic gold medal? How are the East German athletes from 40 years ago viewed today?

Yeah, McGwire has been eligible for more than a decade I believe, I do believe there will come a time when these guys will get in but I think it's very much uncertain right now.

None of you people who follow baseball can name the player under 30 with the most hits without looking it up?

I'll take a stab and say Trout...sure I'm wrong


You did mean active players, right?

Incorrect.

I cheated and looked it up. Quite a surprise, as is the guy who has a few more and is 30.

I used to set aside the junk wax cards of guys I figured had a shot at 3000 hits or 400+ HR. I should get the box out of the barn and list the names, it should be amusing.
I based it on a presumed career of 20 years averaging 150 hits a year. There were a lot of players reliably hitting 150 hits a year. Nearly none of them made 3000.

Yeah once you hit 33 or 34 or so it's hard to sustain. Look at Miggy.

Castro would have been my first guess, the guy who is 30 would have been my second. The right answer would have been third or lower.

New Baseball writers keep replacing the old guard....its without a doubt how the younger voters will decide to let either of the guys in. If you poll the current voting you will see what i mean.

Bonds is the greatest steroid player of all time and his vote total only grew 3 percent from 2017 to 2018. He's seen his total go up 20 percent in 6 years. If he maintains the same growth with the new guard, he'll still be off the ballot before he's in. So why would lesser cheaters get in before him?

5 or 6 years isnt enough time...still considered too soon..will move up exponentially as it get closer to the deadline...its like saying there were no trades in baseball on June 10, and the season had gone on for so many months so why would there be trades by deadline.

Things happen when a deadline occurs. If you are voted on the very last year nobody cares that you waited that long. So not having much of a vote means nothing right now for Bonds/Mcgwire that arent being voted in based on things outside the stats.

I don't know what that means. Over the next 4 years Bonds will fall off the ballot entirely. When he does, Ramirez will be in year 6 of 10 to stay on the ballot. His voting totals went down last year from 23% to 22%.

Three names immediately come to mind. Jose Altuve, Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus. Castro has already been named, and is wrong, so it would come down to a guess between the other two. Both guys started really, really young, and, to my knowledge, neither have ever had an injury to keep them out of a large number of games (at least, until this year, when Andrus missed a block of games. The Dallas Morning News made a big deal about how it was the first time he ever went on the DL). Altuve is a much better hitter, though Andrus started to come into his own the past two seasons, hitting around .300.

Altuve leads the league/Majors in hits like every year (he's an automatic 200 hits each season, while I don't think Andrus has ever hit that plateau), so my gut tells me to go with him. But the "surprise" factor just referenced makes me think that Andrus is the guy.

I would have never thought of him if I didn't live twenty minutes from the Ballpark in Arlington.

In the post where I posed the question I said it wasn't Altuve. You have to read. :D

So yes, it's Andrus.

I used to do that to. Somewhere I think I still have a stack of Matt Nokes, Jerome Walton and Kevin Seitzer rookie cards that....call me optimistic...I am still hoping will be worth something someday.