How do you see the market 10yrs from now
 

I took about an 8 yr break from collecting and just started back last summer. I was shocked to see how much the market has changed. I am especially surprised on how much some PSA 9s have sky rocketed on rookies such as Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas and even Lew Alcindor. Does this mean starting investing in PSA 8.5s? It seems like pre war is becoming more popular but in mid to high grade. Vintage high grade has sky rocketed as well.

I wanted some opinions on which cards you guys believe will be worth the most in 10 yrs. Assuming all these cards are the same price right now $30-40k range:


51 bowman mantle PSA 6.5
52 topps mantle PSA 4
33 goudey Ruth #144/#149 PSA 7
68 topps Nolan Ryan PSA 9
55 topps Clemente PSA 8
54 topps Aaron PSA 8
55 topps Koufax PSA 8.5
79 OPC Gretzky PSA 9

Which ones would be at the top of your list?

Not sure
 

Not sure you've noticed, but last year seemed to be an exception with cards sky-rocketing prices of high grade rookies, etc., but now those prices are falling back to earth. In general, the idea of "investing" in cardboard is still a very risky proposition. The iconic cards like '52 Mantle etc are relatively safe if authenticated, etc.

This Mays, although a 9, looks like it will do very well.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/401285276004...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

Never seen a nicer, Runnels, that I can remember, but this one also looks like it will end very well.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/351996654845...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

I am curious where this Mantle is going to end up, and if the current PWCC Dimaggio situation will affect prices any? (I am guessing not, by the looks of things)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/142300324567...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

Ok I need to call bullshit. 150k for that mays with 7 days left? None is gonna bid that card up that fast. That's so fake. Every time I use vintagecardprices.com there is always card "a" selling on average for let's say 50 and then OECD sold one for 110. something is so so so shady and off. Thoughts?

Surprisingly, not a lot of bid retractions with the current lot of bidders.

PWCC auctions, as I have said many times, do not behave like other auctions. And this is one way they don't -- big cards get bid up out of the gate real fast and real high.

If I can still see my cards 10 years from now I will be happy whatever the market may look like :)

That makes 2 of us Al-R. I do believe there is price manipulation with some sellers - but I also agree with Peter that the bidding history in PWCC auctions does not particularly follow that of other auctions. They have a good following and many buyers will pay a premium for the service that they provide.

Outside of allowing 90 days to settle your account on higher dollar cards through either cash or consignments, what other services do they provide that other sellers on ebay or AHs do not?

Some buyers will pay a premium for purchasing cards from a well known eBay seller with a track record & history of selling legit cards.

Lots of folks in that category but their auctions dont fly out of the gate.

You should sign in and check recent prices before you make an accusation like that. 150k would be a place holder bid on that card. Recent sales range from 310k to almost 500k.

You got that right, Mr. Richter.:)

I'm currently in the middle of watching the actual television broadcast of the 7th game of the 1952 World Series, with Mel Allen and Red Barber at the mic. Truly, that series was one of the greatest of all-time. I don't know why I waited so long to treat myself to this. By the way, the game is available anytime anyone wishes to see it on YOUTUBE.

---Brian Powell

They can turn SGC 4's into PSA 7's.

:d:d:d:d:d:d:d:d:d

Here's a reminder of what this thread is supposed to be about. Seems to have veered into the usual morass of PWCC bashing, shill bidding, and price manipulation complaints. Like there aren't enough of those already.

I would be infinitely more interested in reading responses to the OP's original question... :)

To get back on topic my best guess is rare pre-war cards of big name players will be better investments long term than post war rookies will be. Mantle will be the one exception. I don't think you can go wrong holding a 52 topps or 33 Ruth for 10 years. Anything Gehrig, Cobb, Jackson, or Wagner would also be fine.

I understand it is a place holder and I did look it up, but the point is NOOOOONE bids up auctions that fast. Noone. There are no other examples other than these. People usually wait till the end to try to get the best deal possible, NOT come out the gate showing all their cards.

Although the 52 mays psa 9 is out of my price range I will regularly place bids early on an eBay auction for 1/2 of what I feel an item is worth on the first day. That is all that happened here.

ba dum dum!

Don't want to ruin it for you, but Mantle gets a home run in that one :) (I need to watch the game as I am lucky enough to own a game used ball from it and from game 6).

As for cards, who knows what the market will be in 10 years. Hopefully good if I am selling and bad if I am buying.

Let me clarify slightly for the common man.

I had been buying lots of mid grade and up of commons and semi-stars (with an occasional star thrown in for the last few years.
Two years or so ago I could buy a lot of cards from the early to mid 60s pretty commonly for about 40-50 cents or less per card. These are consistently going for 70 cents and up now. I have seen some 300 card lots go for $400.

Essentially, I believe the market for vintage cards is more competitive than it was 3 or 4 years ago. I can't give a fair reason why, but it's becoming obvious that some of the common prices are rising.

As well, cards in the mid 70s all the way up to the mid 80s are going for more as people are seeking cards in high grade to slab.

Mike Trout

LOL. Which of his 50 million cards is a good buy? :D

LMAO, I'm with you!!

Does anyone know if there is any 9 year old treads on this topic ?

2009 - 2012
that narrows it to 45.6M

I agree and have seen the same trends recently all so (since Nov/Dec LY)...auctions are ending much higher than they used to, even on lower to mid grade material. What is interesting, in some cases now due to this recent trend in lot prices, you can get a better deal buying singles from ebay sellers than buying lots....this is a scary trend for card sellers specializing in selling singles.

However, like many trends, the pendulum will likely swing back in the other direction and lot prices per card will no longer exceed pricing on singles.

I have noticed the same, and I can assume we are talking about the same cards?

Recent sales with Greg Morris were quite surprising, and they were raw, too.

Not bad, Al--I like it! Seriously, I would expect that the truly rare and significant vintage will continue to do quite well; the overpriced investor market for top-end PSA 9's and 10's will have come down quite a bit when our new investor "buddies" learn that there is not an endless supply of true collectors [or new investors coming in to the market] who are willing to pay 5-10X or more what such a card is worth; and the new card market for the most recent phenoms will continue to surge, while those current players that are proven to have been overpriced with the passage of time will drop from their current price levels like wingless birds out of the sky!

Above all else, however, may your collecting bring you joy!

Larry

Some of GM's lots have pulled in some amazing prices per card....again, in many cases single cards in similar condition can be purchased less expensively.

I used to win a high percent of GM's lots. That seemed to stop at about the same time he started sending out his daily 4 PM (est) emails to promote his offerings....and/or the same time the market for raw lots skyrocketed.

All 3 above, especially the Mays, has increased significantly.

SFMS, I have never purchased from GM, only been a lurker, but I did bid on a few of his cards before they really took off. I was hoping to play for a bit, but high bids were quickly squashed and then some.

I was surprised (due them being raw) his 52 Topps cards were doing so well. Some were in pretty good shape, imo.

I am hoping that there is a big swoon 10 years from now. The kids will be almost out of college, the house will be paid for, and I will have some additional disposable income.

My hope is that many of my friends on the board will be looking to liquidate and sell those cards for pennies on the dollar - since the baby boomers are disappearing and forgetting about Mickey Mantle and there are no 30 year old millenials who know who Ty Cobb is!


Of course, the reality will be that every card that I will be looking for then will be experiencing all-time highs and every card that I own will be experiencing a market dip. I don't have any plans of ever selling and made the boys promise to hold onto them when I am gone, so the buy price is more important to me than the sell price!

in 20 years
 

everyone you listed will be worth more than today.

If I was into this hobby only for long term growth on my investments this is how I would see things over the next few years. With interest rates rising It is my opinion that the ultra rich big money players will be putting their money back into treasuries and away from high end 8/9 post war cards. I'm not chasing any cards right now unlesss it happens to be a Mantle.

To the extent that the wealthy are into cards it isn't to beat interest rates, it is as a fun alternate asset play. Something to enjoy like art. Rich people don't sell the family Picasso for pocket money. What is most likely in a downturn is the same thing as has happened in every downturn. Marquee cards stagnate or fall moderately and meat and potatoes basics fall pretty hard because the guys who buy vg Topps cards for their sets are the ones who take it on the chin in a downturn. One thing I do expect in the next downturn is a significant drop in the mainstream cards that have been run up so much in the last year or two. The stuff with a regular heavy supply on eBay and auctions. The PSA 7-8 and even some 9s for guys who aren't Aaron Ruth Mantle etc.

What will the collector base look like in 10 years? Will it largely be the current crop today, or will there be an influx? Todays 10-12 year old will be getting out of college, and todays 21 year old may never have been a collector to the extent that we once were.

The hobby has been an adult game for many, many years now.

In my opinion, the demand for many rare, obscure prewar cards is going to be mediocre at best.

Agree with a lot of what's been said. In the big picture, it's clear that we've already enjoyed the major bump in interest and maturation of the hobby associated with TPG. I believe Coin collecting enjoyed much the same in the earlier 2000's.

It's also pretty clear that we're now on the back end of the accelerated interest in higher-end Post-War cards. Prices have been dropping to a level just a bit higher than before the run-up. There was clearly some undervaluation in that market, but what happened was unsustainable. POP's are not truly limited for most Post-War 8's and above when compared with Pre-War, and whenever middle class investors become well and truly priced out of a market it just can't be a good thing.
The collectors who are in it "for life" (like most of us) have the advantage here. We're happy to sit on the sidelines waiting for any fever to die down, and for speculators to pull up stakes and cash out of the hobby -- We'll buy at a lower prices when they do.

I've been wondering if this small boom was the perfect storm of a very good Economy along with the Boomers reaching the peak of their financial powers? Sprinkle in some Speculators, some feelings of Nostalgia, and you get some mad prices.

So my best guess given all this is Short Term continued weakening of prices on the Post-War cards involved in the run-up (RC's of Rose, Clemente, Koufax, etc.). That should also include the 5's, 6's and 7's that got inflated in the run-up as well.
Medium to Long term, continued gradual appreciation across a wide range of key Post-War cards with intrinsic appeal to collectors. Pre-War to do it's thing, puttering along with solid performance -- maybe some room for faster appreciation with certain players.
Maybe '70's Baseball and Hockey/FB/BB to get some love, too.

I would be amazed to see another run on prices in the next 5-10 years like we saw in the past 2 years.

Ruth and Mantle safest investments. Post war rookies such as Aaron, Koufax, Clemente more risky as their PSA 8 rookies have already decreased by half in value compared to their highs last summer.

Any thoughts on the above posted links and how they finished?

Is the Mays higher/lower than previous sales, is the Runnels a new high, and what's everyone's thoughts on how the Mantle finished?

Personally, I don't recall seeing some of the prices that were realized with some of lowered numbered 52 Topps cards, but maybe I haven't been around long enough?

The Mays sold for $235K, about $100k under the average. This same card/same cert, was bought on Heritage for $382K seven months ago. Ouch, someone took it on the chin here. Although at Heritage it's entirely legal to shill and retract bids, so I would personally never use their sales data.

In full disclosure, I love this card. Possibly my favorite card of all time, with his '53 a close second.

Without making it to your, "About seven months ago" part, I was thinking, I bet this card sold last summer.

Hopefully the $147,000, that the previous owner lost, is like pocket change to him?
I was thinking and wondering how the $80,000 Koufax, that sold last year was doing, then I found a PSA 9 that sold at Heritage for $215,000 with the BP. :eek: Never heard about that one? I believe there are now 3 PSA 10's on the market, but maybe that number has already changed?

PSA 8 Koufax rookies are now selling for around $10k each.

This recent sale of the 52 PSA 9 Mays for the 100k+ loss is a signal to me that the big investors might slow their short term, less then 1 year, exposure for 9's. Idk this is interesting and educational to watch for sure :-)

"The market"
 

I may be wrong, but I would think that the vast majority of the members of Net54 don't give a hoot about "The Market". We collect cards, maybe sell a few cards, and we are very happy with our lower grade collections. We enjoy the chase, and we collect cards that are meaningful to us. I think most of us sell our excess cards so we can use the money to buy more cards for our personal collections. As far as what a 52 PSA 3 Mantle will be worth 10 years down the road - I don't care.

Rick

This is how I feel.

In my personal opinion, if you are in sports cards for an investment...you are a poor investor. Yes, the market has shown it can be manipulated by the unsavory as it is small. I don't believe this will go unnoticed by the government much longer due to the current cash flow some of those involved are tossing around.

In 10 years I only see the same ups and downs we see today and the values will be fairly steady as a whole. The long, long term...only downhill as collectors age and pass away. Does this affect my collecting? Not at all as it is a hobby, not my retirement planning.

That's how I buy and sell securities...

investments...
 

As a tax guy, I see a lot of different investment transactions - Government bonds, basic interest accounts at the bank, speculative stocks, blue chip stocks, high dividend yielding mutual funds, single family rentals, small businesses, etc.

Cards are investments, not mainline, but they are investments. Tough to imagine that anybody thinks, gee, I am buying cards, but have no hopes of them ever increasing in value.

Be smart and don't build your entire portfolio around them. However, if done right, they can be investments that DO yield a positive rate of return. I have accumulated pre-war cards of major HOF'ers mostly in PSA 5 and 6 grades: T206's of Cobb, Matty, Walter Johnson and Cy Young. 1920's Exhibits of Ruth and Gehrig. A Satchell Paige here, a Jimmie Foxx there, A very nice PSA 8 run of Hank Aaron's, and similar type stuff.

The long term result (10 year hold plus) has seen some nice price appreciation. I am glad I have them built into my portfolio as investments. Just my 2 cents.

I have been doing this (for the most part) 30+ years.

Appreciation is only guaranteed in my eyes, not in value.

I went through many phases of my collection crashing after booms like we have seen in the past few years, ask the 90s guys. If I don't lean on a hope that demand outpaces supply and just enjoy myself I will not be disappointed.

If your window is only the last 10 years, then yes you have been in a phase of appreciation. How long the PSA love lasts with outside investors depends on a reputation with a constantly eroding base.

Just enjoy the collection and if something good happens value wise, enjoy that too.

I have often wondered what will happen in 10-20 years when most of the people who could have pulled these cards from packs and their peers have passed. I think many adults who collect - of all ages - are reliving their youth, chasing cards they had or coveted as a child (guilty!). Granted, I am 37 and have never collected cards that were from my lifetime. When me and my friends went to the card shop, they bought packs of NBA Hoops while I saved up and bought a Willie, Mickey or Duke. My favorite cards have always been mid to low grade from that era 1951-1969. With little exception.

I have never been able to draw a conclusion. Up, down, stays about the same? Hard to say - and much like the stock market, there are both predictable and unpredictable factors and we're really just guessing...