Tom Brady or Joe Namath rookie cards what is the better bet longrun?
 

I am going to go with Tom Brady as it looks like the Patriots will be 8-0 this Sunday to cause more hype this season, plus more people have seen Tom Brady play, so Tom Brady sells in more volume. So even though I appreciate the Joe Namath card we will find Brady got more fans.
I think of it in this way more people rather have the Michael Jordan and LeBron rookies than of the great Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain. So more people rather have the Brady rookie than Joe Namath rookie.
Any thoughts?

Brady values are in the moment while Namath has endured many years of leveling. Will Brady be more valuable than Namath in the future? I see him leveling off to the same value as as Namath in the long run.

but right now 6 Superbowls to 1?
Brady might even get a 7. That would be all time.
How could Joe Namath and that one SB compare?
Is the New York pull that strong?
Also when Joe Namath won it was 50 years ago, so we got to think his fanbase is aging out.
I think Tom Brady will be the rookie card in the end.
I am fair though and if anyone can give me a decent argument as to why the Joe Namath rookie card is the best over Tom Brady I will listen.

Brady, easily. Specifically his Contenders. Contenders is as important to the 2000’s as Topps was to the 50’s-80’s and the Brady is the definitive card of the GOAT.

I agree with the last several posts. Namath is not comparable to Brady. Wilt and Russell are in the conversation with Jordan and Lebron for the best of all time. Namath is not in that discussion with Brady, and Brady's cards will reflect that long term.

Namath barely makes some top 100 lists. That said, he's the perfect storm -- New York, Broadway Joe (is there a more perfect nickname except perhaps the Galloping Ghost?), the swagger, the Super Bowl which was a defining moment in football history, the famous and unforgettable prediction, and the rookie card being from a very cool and relatively tough set. Plus there are two zillion Brady rookies.

He has like 40 rc’s but only one that’s signed. And that one card has already sold for more than any Namath.

Yeah, that one Super Bowl win is memorable but more memorable than Brady’s close to double digit appearances? A whole generation has seen Brady in the Super Bowl every other year of his career.

Good points, but I might argue Tom Brady might have more swagger than Broadway Joe because right now Brady is better looking and married to a top hot model that makes more than him in Gisele.
Although I admire Namath I think the Brady rookies got this.
lol. That I am using outside sources like looks and a model wife for future popularity when 6 Super Bowls to 1 should be enough.

I love Brady but let's face it, he is boring, probably a victim of the system forced on him but nonetheless, he is boring. Namath was anything but.

Joe did not marry a super model...he just dated them two at a time. ;)

Apples and oranges. Namath is the legendary player; the guarantee, the women, the celebrity. Namath's card is the 'best' AFL card ever made. It is of an era. Brady is probably the GOAT and his top card may be the best modern FB card. Different collector base, different point in life when each card has appeal to a collector. When you get into history you understand the appeal of Namath's card.

But the question was future prospects. In absolute cash terms, I think the Brady probably has more upside because it sells for so much more than the Namath. Each 1% increase on a $400K card (the Beckett 10 last February) is the equivalent of a 1.75% increase on a $228K card (the PSA 9 in 2018 Heritage).

As for personal desires, I'd skip 'em both for a Jim Brown RC...But I'm a Brown collector.

We're talking about card value, which is tied to a player's performance, but not exclusively. Some players are "football gold," "baseball gold," etc. but not necessarily "card gold." Namath and Brady seem to be both football and card gold.
For future prospects, Brady is going to have a lot of publicity for years to come, retirement, jersey retirement, election into Canton, induction day, "Tom Brady Day" in New England, etc. etc. And I believe his non-football career could very likely lead to more exposure (films, perhaps?). All of that should stoke the demand for his cards. So there's probably more upside with Brady.

There's going to be a lot more of this in the coming months, years, etc...
https://sports.yahoo.com/for-the-fir...184152705.html

The Brady contenders auto is going
To outclass the Namath rookie obviously, and certain Psa 10s May eventually, but the vast majority of Brady’s rookie cards won’t ever touch Namath’s simply because of the sheer numbers of Brady rookie cards out there. And Brady the goat or not, joe Namath has his own set of rules that govern his card values vs actual skill/ranking as a QB.

That's the supply side, but it doesn't take into consideration the demand side fully. For instance, Mike Trout's flagship update rookie has a huge supply, but the demand is high enough to command big prices. As I noted earlier, there are a great number of upcoming milestones for Brady to help stoke the demand.
And since this is for investment purposes, I see more upside for Brady rookies rather than the Namath rookie. The volume of options actually provides for opportunity, as there are surely undervalued Brady issues that qualify for the RC designation. And while some of those issues may never touch the Namath rookie for price, if investing is the main thrust I would rather put a couple hundred into a Brady rookie with the potential to double it or so to $500 than put money approaching $1,000 for a low grade Namath rookie when it might not yield the same return.

Tom Brady and the Patriots now undefeated at 8-0. The magic ride continues.

Agreed and as that happens the Joe Namath Super Bowl victory and their fans will be getting close to 60 years later.
Like I said before Wilt and Bill Russell were the kings, but because it happened so long ago we find Jordan and LeBron rookies selling in more volume.
I see the same effect happening with Tom Brady over Broadway Joe.
ps. great debates btw by everyone about this.

What makes you consider Brady only having 1 rookie thats autographed? Assuming you are counting his Contenders card as the 1...

2000 Fleer Tradition Autographics
2000 Press Pass Autograph
2000 SCORE ROOKIE PREVIEW
2000 Pacific Crown Royale Autograph
Probably others.

Edit - To answer the question at hand I would say Brady. I think Namath is in a down trend. With the popular emphasis on analytics (that don't do him justice) and stats, Namath comes off looking fairly pedestrian. Plus his famous drunken sideline footage doesn't help.

How big is Tom Brady compared to Joe Namath?

Cowboys-Patriots was the most-watched regular-season NFL game in over a decade
https://www.aol.com/article/news/201...cade/23867644/

The game received a 19.5/40 metered rating. That was the highest rating for a regular-season NFL game since 2007, according to Fox Sports.

Sorry Namath fans but Tom Brady has dethroned Broadway Joe. That`s the facts.

I think because of the relative lack of interest in football history, it wouldn't surprise me at all for modern cards to rise to the top of the rankings of valuable football cards. That said, I think the vintage collector would spend on a Namath or Chicle Nagurski over an expensive modern card. I think some market segmentation has to be recognized - I have a few modern cards, but I don't even know what year or set the Brady rookie comes from. If no one collected cards of players from before they were born, T206s would have crashed by now.

Good points. This also happening in the NBA as most people want the LeBron and Jordan rookie cards over the old timers.
I also think the baby boomer New York is in play here with Namath like it is with Mickey Mantle. Should be interesting to see how it is in 10 more years when those baby boomer New York fans are very old or unfortunately have passed on.
ps. Sorry for being morbid but my late grandfather was the biggest Hopalong Cassiday and Roy Rogers fan around, but when he passed we sold his collection for pennies on the dollar. No one really was caring about those old icons, Another incident was my 82 year old uncle died and left me over 1000 78 records. Couldn't get $10 for them so just donated them for free.
So I am betting on the younger Brady fanbase to outlast the NY baby boomers of the 1960s in the long run.

I can definitely see the Namath/Mantle comparison.

A better question may be a Brady v. a Chicle Nagurski - since it isn't really fans who saw Nagurski play buying that one.

I honestly don't think it`s close.
Brady won 6 Superbowls and Namath won one. It`s just shows the power of those baby boomers from New York. The same boomers that put Mantle over Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, Hank Aaron and Roberto Clemente.
Their power is waning though. We will see in 10 years.
tick tock tick tock . lol.

I think it comes down to this.
Who has all the records and the Super Bowl wins and the longevity...Brady.
Who was more fun and exciting to watch...Namath
Who would I choose if I had one game to win with my life on the line...Montana.

Those are inserts, though, not rookie cards.

To even bring up Mantle's name when discussing Namath shows me that you know nothing about professional sports. There is a reason why boomers worship him and that's because they watched him go to the World Series twelve times (and win seven of them). He also set many World Series records which still have not been broken today, won the Triple Crown, got over 500 HRs, I could go on and on. Mantle dominated his era, period.

Willie Mays was the better player, yes, but having only one ring will always hurt him. The same goes for Hank Aaron - only one ring. Jackie Robinson doesn't even belong in this debate. He is popular for different reasons.

I think if you wanted to do a comparison, putting Mantle's name next to Tom Brady would make a lot more sense. Brady wasn't the most talented QB of his era, but he knew how to win, and he did it again and again.

And the last thing I want to say is that I've been shopping around for a decent-looking Mantle rookie for months now and I've spoken to so many owners, and guess what? Majority of them are under the age of forty-five. It looks like the boomers have already passed on their 'Mantle love' to the next generation! :D

Oh, that's a distinction that the vast majority of collectors don't follow.

Modern card collectors? No, it definitely is

Here’s a breakdown of his RC’s: https://www.beckett.com/news/tom-brady-rookie-cards/

The Contenders is a massively important card.

All this talk of Brady being the GOAT makes me giggle. Most accomplished? Yes. Greatest to ever play? LOL, not even close.

Brady is "not even close" to being the greatest of all time?

Let me guess, unbiased "Milwaukee Bill" will argue that Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre were better.

Will Namath even be football relevant in 50 yrs?
 

Besides some NY kids who may have had fathers who idolized Namath, I don't get the sense any Millennial or younger know or care who he is nor will care about any of the stories, etc. What was considered flamboyant and outrageous back then probably sounds tame and lame compared to the trouble modern athletes get into today and the ease in which its documented in social media.

I wonder if Sammy Baugh's lack of price movement in the past decade is a good analogy indicator of how Namath's cards will perform once all the Boomers who saw him play are no longer around driving demand and prices up.

For that matter, will Brady still be relevant in 50 years? For all we know, modern technology and medicine will allow players to play in to their 60's, which would allow players to shatter even Brady's records.
Bottom line, collect what you love, and if you make money down the line even better.

This. The absolute finest clutch QB I ever saw play. I was lucky to live in SF right at the heart of that team's run and saw a lot of and about him. Montana was just amazing. Only other guy who had the same 'he can do it' vibe that I recall was Ken Stabler.

Where do Staubach and Unitas fit into this?

Brady is 30-10 in the postseason. I'd be equally fine for one crucial game with him or Montana. Bradshaw was 14-5 postseason, sure he played on a great team but he's worthy of mention.

Bill Russell won 11 rings for the Boston Celtics, but the Jordan and LeBron rookie cards are more sought after. I guarantee Tom Brady rookie cards will be more sought after than the Joe Namath rookie cards in the end.
I go by volume. More people are buying Tom Brady cards than Namath.
plus we will see about Mantle in 10 years.
I rather invest in Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth cards. They seem to have not peaked yet.

Agreed. Good post.

Yes and he will be bigger than Mantle.
3 things he got going for him.
1. Most of his fans will still be around in 50 years, while Mantle`s will be long gone.
2. Brady is very active on social media like Instagram, and there are way more youtube videos of Tom Brady in color than Mantle.
3. Tom Brady plays for the NFL which is a much bigger sport than the MLB.

Disagree.
1. Mantle has a strong fan base among the same age group as Brady's fan base. Mantle has already shown the ability to be relevant to generations that never saw him play.

2. This could change very easily when Brady retires. Will he be able to stay in the limelight or will he be forgotten for the next hot rookie of SB MVP? Will he sign at card shows like Mantle did for years?

3. NFL is more popular now, but NFL cards are by far the least collected of the 3 main sports. Also, the NFL could easily lose its popularity. The kneeling during the national anthem has hurt its popularity. The problems with CTE threatens the game long term.

1) Ty Cobb's fans are long gone, and yet his cards sell for insane amounts of money. The same goes for Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio, etc.

2) How many videos can you find of Cobb and the others? I found one Cobb video now on YouTube that is just over two minutes long and that's it. The number of videos someone has on the Internet is totally irrelevant to collectors.

3) Then why is this football forum so dead? Also, how many football cards do you see getting exchanged in the BST?

I agree with your first two points. Unfortunately, MLB has always done a much better job glorifying its past than the NFL has. The NFL simply doesn't appear interested in their history at all. I believe this is one of the major reasons why old time baseball players are still known while old time football stars are not and I'm not sure this is gonna change.

Your third point isn't a valid argument, though. Net54 is a BASEBALL forum that has a single football category. IMHO this forum is not where football collectors go to buy/sell/talk about football for the most part. There are some great football facebook groups out there that have a lot of traffic. Also my Vintage Football Community (VFC) forum where we've had more new football threads started in the past 17 months than Net54 has had football threads in the past 8 years. And that is not a slight on Net54 at all as football isn't its main focus!

jeff

Really? Where is this data coming from?

The POP reports say otherwise. Football is far ahead of all of the other sports besides baseball at this point in terms of cards graded.

jeff

Basketball cards are far more popular than Football. It has a huge international following where Football is mainly limited to the US. Even in the US, the demand for Basketball is higher. You just have to look at sales and secondary market prices for products over the last 33 years.

Where are you finding pop report totals? How many 2018 basketball cards have been graded by each of the 3 grading companies vs. 2018 football cards? 2017 cards? 2016 cards? ... 2000 cards?

Rebuttal to the 2 and 3 points.
With point 2. Tom Brady will never have to sign card shows as Brady made way more money than the Mick.
with point 3 the Super Bowl destroys the World Series in the TV ratings, in fact most regular NFL games destroy the WS in the TV ratings.
Tom Brady right now is the king and most popular sports figure in all of American sports. I honestly don't think the Mick has a chance against Tom Brady with future generations. I would be selling my Mickey Mantles key cards now to load up on Tom Brady key cards.

LeBron James is far more popular than Tom Brady, especially when it comes to the card market. You also just proved my point #2. A huge part of Mantle's popularity was meeting fans at card shows and staying in the hobby spot light. When Michael Jordan retired, his cards took a significant drop. I expect the same thing to happen with Brady. If he disappears from the hobby spotlight, there won't be new collectors after his cards. The only thing that brought collectors back to Jordan was being the spokesperson for Upper Deck. They won't be doing that with Tom Brady.

I would buy the Brady over Namath, but Brady is never going to approach the popularity of Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth in the hobby. Most people don't care for football cards. They are a distant 3rd behind baseball and basketball in the hobby food chain.

You keep saying this but won't provide any data. The only data I can find is from PSA which of course is biased info but there have been nearly twice as many football cards as basketball cards graded in their history. In the past couple of years it is true that more basketball cards have been graded than football cards for new releases but that isn't true historically. Does that mean football is somehow a "distant third"? Don't think so. There have been other years when basketball cards have been graded at a higher rate than football cards but these periods of time have always been followed by football overtaking basketball again (at least looking at the only info I have which is PSA). Basketball is certainly popular but has never show to be sustainable in the hobby. Perhaps this is now changing but I wouldn't base that on the last few years only. The fact that you cite that football isn't strong in the hobby because there isn't much of a discussion in the Net54 BASEBALL forum about it, tells me you aren't connect at all with what is going on in the football portion of the hobby.

It is very true that basketball is an international sport much more than american football and that should help basketball continue to do well. But if you take modern cards out of the equation, vintage football cards continue to be graded at a far faster rate than vintage basketball cards do. I'm looking at the entire hobby, not just the rate at which newer collectors choose to get sparkly new cards graded.

Finally, if you think football is going anywhere in terms of popularity, you are delusional. Even with the CTE issues and off-field challenges, the sport remains the most popular one in the US and draws well when the NFL plays outside the country. In general I find those that talk about the demise of football are people who just don't like the sport and are looking for reasons to tear it apart. Football isn't going anywhere in terms of a decrease in popularity and international sales of HOFer cards has been increasing as well.

jeff

You're right. It's the same reason why the hockey/basketball forum is dead. It's not as if they aren't sought-after, because they definitely are, however, collectors of these cards just don't come on here looking for them.

I also want to say that I wasn't taking a jab at football cards because I love them! I recently had a buddy of mine, who owed me some money over some hockey cards that I had given him, ask me if I was interested in taking some of his vintage football cards instead of cash and I told him it depended on what he had. The guy sent me a photo and I nearly fell out of my chair! He had this big lot of 57s! Now the Unitas was OC, and most of them are like this, however, his Starr was beautiful! I phoned him right up and I was like "yes, yes, I want it!" :D

I have read hundreds of future predictions on this forum, but the statements being made by MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR are completely nuts! Here is his recent one:

I was trying to figure out why he kept making these statements until he posted this earlier today on the main forum:

I rest my case. :D

LOL. You found out I am a big Boston sports fan. Honestly, I don't find the Mick that big a deal. Maybe because I was born after him? I do love Elvis and the Beatles though because I ended liking their youtube videos. I will still stand by my statement in the end Tom Brady will be the king sportscard over the Mick. I even think Jordan and LeBron cards are better bets than Mantle. I just don't get the appeal of Mantle, heck I take Jackie Robinson or Ty Cobb over him. btw I respect Mantle but I just don't get why people go ga ga over him. I feel the same way with Trout as I rather have Mookie Betts.

I'd pick Brady, if these are the only two choices. As others have mentioned, Football doesn't make a big deal of its history like Baseball does. Every Baseball fan knows Cobb and Wagner and Ruth and Ted Williams and a dozen others, even if they don't much about them. Namath's fanbase will be leaving the hobby in the coming years, Brady's won't.


As for the Mantle and Namath comparison, I think they are quite different. NY stars of the same period, elevated above the peers, similar off-field behavior, even ran a business together. None the less, Mickey Mantle is one of the all time greatest baseball players by any measurement. Namath might be the worst quarterback in the Hall, by the numbers compared to their peers. 173 TD's and 220 Interceptions is not impressive, even for his era. Millenials are much more driven by statistics when they didn't see and don't have an emotional connection to the players of yore.


If I was to invest in cards, which I would not do, I would pick vintage Baseball or modern-era Basketball. I suspect I'm much younger than the average on this forum, in my late 20's. I don't know anyone who collects cards still in real life. My generation grew up collecting Pokemon mostly, and that's where their nostalgia (which, I think, is a big part of adult card collecting) goes. Some very high end items will always have value, as a display of wealth if not love of old cardboard, but who are the generations that had most boys collecting cards to some degree going to sell their collections to in 30 years?


When I go to a card show, there are maybe a handful of people under 40 there. The hobby friends I've made over the years through email and message boards are almost all twice as old as I am. Now I get that many people take their 20's and 30's off from collecting before coming back to the hobby once financially comfortable, but previously this has been driven by nostalgia, I think. Once one has disposable income, some return to the hobby of their youth. I am fortunate that I've been able to participate in the hobby for all but my four college years, but without that nostalgia factor, are we really going to see a spurt of millennials entering the hobby in the 2030's and 2040's? I doubt it.


Of course, there are some younger people collecting, but the primary interest is not collecting. It's making money and gambling. Most of the modern hobby revolves around buying $100 boxes that usually have $20 of cards in them, trying to hit that lottery ticket of [insert hottest prospect in current year]. Most of these lottery tickets are worthless in five years. I've joined a couple groups of primarily modern collectors, and the first question is always "what is it worth?" when I show something older than 2011 that they don't recognize. The gambling driven element of the hobby here doesn't seem to lead to long term value outside of a very small handful of cards like the Update Trout (we'll see if even that one holds, the supply is enormous for an expensive card), as the focus is on pulling a big hit and immediately cashing it out. You need actual collectors to sustain value long term, or the bottom will eventually fall out when you just have speculators selling to other speculators.


All my friends like sports, Football and Basketball are the most popular, but there is little interest in their history. I love vintage football, but nobody I actually know could give a hoot about seeing old cards of Starr and Unitas and they certainly have no clue who Baugh even is. My baseball fan friends don't collect either, but they do have an interest in the big names of the past, and will even take a binder or box down, unprompted, and flip them through when we watch a game at my house. Baseball has always mythologized its past, and has become tied to card collecting in general. Most baseball fans know about cards at least. MLB video games feature baseball cards in them, ballparks show Topps cards on the scoreboards and screens (at least they have in the Bay Area), and the Wagner and 52 Mantle are very well-known. I don't think most football fans today recognize Panini. There may be more Football fans, but a baseball fan is much, much more likely to be a card collector, or to be a person who might one day become a card collector. Basketball is quickly becoming the #1 sport, and some parts of Asia are taking to card collecting, with a preference for modern basketball.


I think another factor here is that, honestly, the hobby is difficult to get into and quite a hostile one. If buying new, a collector dipping their feet in is likely to lose 80% of their money when buying a new box. Or if vintage, they are flooded with a series of mis-represented reprints, altered cards, and outright fraud, even from cards graded by "reputable" companies, who seem mostly to be reputable because many people stand to lose a ton of money on investments if the entire hobby acknowledges the scandals that are, by now, too numerous to even list. It's tough to get started, and many of the early experiences are sure to leave a bad taste. I can't say I think my friends really make a worse choice by just buying PlayStations, taking 5 minutes to learn the controls of a new game, and then just relaxing and enjoying the experience.


I don't think card collecting is a strong long-term investment because most of its user base A) won't be around forever and B) has not passed the hobby down to my generation. If I had to invest in cards, I'd pick shiny modern basketball and hope the Asian market continues to grow as the NBA becomes the biggest and most popular sport, or vintage baseball. The biggest names in baseball history and very, very scarce material (I think we vastly underestimate the quantity of most vintage cards out there, as a general rule) seem the safest bets to me. Baseball fans will continue to know Mays and Mantle and Ruth and Young, and for very rare sets, you only need a handful of collectors to sustain high values.

Just my two cents , or maybe 3 after this essay