Hobby Resilience - Long Term
 

Obviously collecting cards is foremost a hobby, yet, many of us have used the assets we've accumulated to pay for important things when the time required it: a wedding, college tuition, some needed home improvements, et al. Time and again, buying the right vintage and, in some cases, modern cards of key players, has proven a good investment.

Over the years, my cards have easily out performed safe haven purchases like gold, silver, even jewelry. Wall Street is up and down on the latest news in the Ukraine or China. Ty Cobb, well, he keeps steady. Michael Jordan... his collectables are resilient - some ups and downs but unquestionably up over the long haul. Price of gas goes up, fraud at a big accounting firm, new political leader... doesn't matter much. Now wild speculation on junk slabs... that's a whole different story, but vintage has never let me down!

Your experience similar?

Things I thought I overspent on in last few years now look like great buys

Things I Did not buy I now look back and wish I did.

The prices have spiked so much last few years that most collectors did well especially if they have any of the key players like Ruth, Mantle, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, And some many more.

But for me I stay vintage and I keep collecting

Two points:

1)Looking at the trajectory of vintage cards, it doesn't really look like a steady climb, more like a punctuated equilibrium. Cards are at some plateau, then there's a sudden shock to the market, and then there's a new plateau - like ships going through canal locks. If you buy and sell between shocks though, you don't actually make much money. What is the guarantee then that such shocks will continue, or that they can be predicted?

2)Long-term I still think we're basically looking at cards as having real value over the course of two or three generations. Boomers can retire and sell their cards off to Millenials, many of whom were hooked in the 1980s/1990s. Who will Millenials be able to sell their cards to when they retire?

Americans love collectibles. Cards seem to be rather high on the collectibility scale. It seems as though there are a lot of new collectors recently. Heck I now get outbid on raw stuff at prices I think are way too high. I just can't imagine any significant dip in the card market - plateau perhaps, but not dip. I should quantify that by saying the good stuff won't dip much. Better chance than not, in 5-10 years todays prices will seem like good deals. I don't have the disposable income to pour into the cards I like at the the grades I like. I might buy a nice card on rare occasion, but for the most part I keep telling myself, "don't sell the good stuff". I retire in 10 years, will roll the dice, keep what I have and lets see how the market goes.

Pre-War big names are more resilient by this point, but I'm not sure about post-war. Most of the vintage 'investment' cards are post-war, and have massive print runs. When the generation with a nostalgic attachment to them dies and the hobby gets a massive influx of Mantle/Clemente/Aaron/Robinson/Mays/Ryan/Etc. I'm not sure there are enough interested young people to buy this massive quantity at huge prices.

Pre-War is greatly aided by the small surviving populations (there's a lot of T206, T206, Goudey, not much else), and the sets with a lot of examples are often the only commonly found card of that player. It helps Cobb's T206's that he doesn't have many other commonly found career contemporary cards, even though his T206's themselves are common. It's not the same with the post-war players. I doubt that, for example, Clemente's will completely crater but there are a LOT of 1955 Topps Clemente's being invested in, much less his many other extremely common cards. How many young people will think it's worth the many $K's 55 Clemente's cost when the generation who grew up with him all have their collections hitting the market? There will, sadly, be an inevitable massive influx of post-war materials coming as that generation reaches the end of life.

Another issue to factor if one's purpose is long term investment is, I think, shifting cultural standards and the tendency to remove from the public sphere of acceptability figures of the past that do not meet the standards of the present. On the other hand, this hasn't yet hurt CDV's (again though, a small population item that doesn't need very many buyers to sustain prices) of certain once-respected-and-now-reviled historical figures, so perhaps it won't, or could even stroke interest in there items (after all, villains in a narrative sell. Cicotte would be valued somewhere between Vic Willis and George Mullin if he wasn't a villain). I would factor it in as a possible big hit on certain guys if I was investing.

By this point, I think the great stat players who are undervalued will remain undervalued. I don't see Eddie Collins ever getting the dollar value of his statistical value. We've been talking about how he is undervalued for my entire life. Far more buyers care about narratives than who was actually the best, and I think the safest investments are those with the best narratives.

Personally, I'm going to continue to keep investing separate from cards. My stocks are not necessarily a better investment (indeed, if I'd bought T206 Cobb Green's instead of Apple, Google and Amazon, I'd be doing about exactly as well, but with the extra benefit of getting to look at baseball lithography instead of graph charts), but it lets me simply enjoy the cards as a break from the stress of life and finance.

I used to think, as the consensus seems to here, that in a generation or two, the desire for boomer idols, and perhaps even for the original legends from past generations, will fade and that would be reflected in the market for them. But lately I've started wondering if perhaps sports (and maybe non-sports) cards are becoming commoditized, if that's a word, and will retain and even increase in demand and value simply because there is a limited supply, they are gradable, easily stored and transported, and in general make for a good medium of repository of value. In other words, no collectible desire required, or perhaps better put, now disconnected from the original collectible desire that gave them their secondary value in the first place. The difference in value between them, however, will still be determined in the marketplace by the same factors as they have been historically: stature of the player, rarity, age, beauty, condition, etc. What won't be required is any feeling for the subjects, much like gold and silver today. With exceptions, nobody holds those coins for the subjects depicted, but for the value of the medium. McLuhan said it: "The medium is the message."

I wrote my feelings on this subject right into my signature line:

"Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow."

I believe once Fanatics has taken full control, the collecting hobby will no longer be a hobby.

Rant on……

It is just gonna be a madhouse free-for-all on who can get the shiniest chase card at that particular moment in time. Base sets will rapidly fall off the face of the collectors radar and everyone will be overpaying for a box of cards that only has two packs of 2 cards, looking for that Willie Wonka golden ticket. And then summarily flipping it and bitching that they did not get what the expected out of their ‘investment’.

Rant off…..

That is actually happening now with these advertised case breaks. Over pay for a maybe shot at a 1 of 1 common.

What ever happened to the distributors that did not gouge their customers? Certainly is a thing of the past, that is for sure.

This is reminiscent of the gold rush and all the people that mined the miners. Who got the better end of that deal……not the miners and not the hobbyist in the modern day scenario.

Butch Turner

With respect to wax (new cards in packs), it seems like folks have viewed buying packs/boxes like buying lottery tickets- really just a gamble to find some serial numbered/low print run/ auto and toss the rest away. Seen it a thousand times. Some don’t mind dropping the cash to have a few beers and bust packs for the fun of it. Others would rather buy a graded vintage item for their pc with that same $150.

Hate to say it, but can't disagree with your initial statement. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens in the future. And it won't surprise me to see the major sports leagues and their players (isn't that who owns a big portion of Fanatics?) go after the grading companies, breakers/dealers, and maybe even an AH or two at some point. They've come up with Fanatics to start with. And now they've figured out how to take over the production of sports cards. So what makes anyone think for even a moment that that will satisfy them and that they'll stop there? It seems fairly clear the sports leagues and players are as usual, all about the money, and will do whatever they can to make as much as possible off what they do. So why let others make money off of cards when they can take over parts of that ancillary industry and keep more of the money for themselves. Heck, if the major sports leagues can, they'll try to get in on the gambling industry as well. Just give them time. they'll figure a way to get paid.

I hope there is some movement in Congress to finally remove the exemption to the Sherman Anti-Trust Act that MLB has now had for 100 years. This investment by the major sports leagues and player's associations/unions in Fanatics, and the subsequent acquisition by Fanatics of the rights to produce cards (which they basically just gave to themselves), could just be the start of the efforts by the major sports league to monopolize different segments of the sports industry in their attempt to wrest control of as much of it as they can.

However, the one area of the "hobby" the leagues and players may not be able to grab control of is the vintage side of it. The cards were produced long ago, and rights and such, if applicable, paid for already.

One thing for sure: card shows are back. And when watching UTube for the many videos featuring card shows, I get nervous when I see a 17 year old walking around with a briefcase full of $10,000 shiny stuff items looking for action. It seems like a lot of business is done by trade with little cash trading hands. To actually buy, say, a Zion RC autographed, patched and God knows what else takes a bit more than pocket money.
I have always worked the vintage end of the market and that is where I will stay.

This question, or variations, come up here frequently. What do you consider to be "long term?" I don't think people will value these things for generations in the same way folks do now, but not sure when that transition will occur.

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I’m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they’ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.


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“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick

"Show me the money"--every newbie waddling through Target looking for unopened.

Look, every few years someone predicts that cards will end. Hasn't happened in the 50+ years I've been collecting.

Poetic & interesting post, but a few glaring inaccuracies:

1. Can never treat modern & vintage the same or similarly in any market analysis.

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth’s.

Now you're getting apocalyptic on us. You could say the same about cash, gold, diamonds, etc. Under those circumstances, we'll be burning Wagners for warmth.

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

So beautifully put. That reflects my thoughts as well, but collecting cards -- and also other non-card memorabilia -- although focused on vintage items, helps me connect with not only the past, but also the game at present.

Many thanks, Adam, for sharing that gem of a quote from Mr. Burdick.

Right on. Wasn't it just last year that rather young, very successful, entrepreneur spent a tad over $5,000,000 for a gorgeous 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in PSA 9 MINT? When interviewed about it, he said he had wanted this card for many years. He got what he wanted, and he loved what he got.

--- Brian Powell

The "hobby" itself will be fine in the long term. As long as there are people still interested in and playing baseball, there will always be people who will collect and value the cards and memorabilia we've grown to love. From the gist of his opening post though, the OP's title/question for this thread should probably more appropriately have been something along the lines of - "Sports Cards and Memorabilia Investing Resilience - Long Term".

There are currently too many people, with way too much money, invested and tied up in our "hobby" to ever let it just suddenly wither away and die on the vine, so to speak. The only way I could ever see our "hobby" truly dying out is if something like collecting cards was somehow discovered to be a direct cause of some absolutely fatal disease or illness, or the government, for whatever idiotic reason, suddenly decided to ban and make sports card collecting illegal. Even so, it would likely still survive (and likely thrive) on the black (or at least grey) market. It ain't going anywhere anytime soon. If I remember correctly, people still eat blowfish, and it was never hard to find a drink during Prohibition.

For this "hobby" to die out now, it would be indicative of a lot bigger problems and issues throughout the world, the least of which would be worrying about our "hobby" itself.

What does it make you wonder about?

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

Good answer.

But if you have to ask :(

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH’s vs Card Shows.

I’ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren’t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They’re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

In October, I attended the Dallas Card Show and I saw the biggest stack of cash I had ever seen. I have seen 130K in person. This stack was much bigger. All Cash. There was a 2009 Bowman Chrome Trout Refractor PSA graded and some other cards being sold. They were counting the money. The guy who was buying did not appear to be a dealer either and I did not catch him behind a table both days I attended.

True, the numbers on how many Americans wouldn't be able to come up with $400 for an emergency are mind-boggling, but cards (and other sports collectibles) have actually proven to be a pretty good repository of value to meet unexpected expenses. Several times they have been just that for me.

Sports are a rich part of American history. And sports cards allow collectors to feel like they hold a piece of history. Vintage cards should therefore hold the interest of future generations -- and their value. If this were not so, as some of posted here, then why is there still a significant market for, say, documents from colonial times? It's been a long time since anyone saw George Washington at work!

Drug money being laundered, perhaps?

I think there is some (understandable) reluctance to flash huge piles of cash at public events. I would guess that the biggest deals are not done in plain view of the public at a card show.

Heck, even travelling to a show with such cash now is dangerous. If ever stopped, police will simply take it from you and claim it as asset forfeiture. Wouldn't be overly surprised to hear of police specifically patrolling a show, like the National, just looking for someone's money to grab some day.

In my mind modern is an awful long term investment. The simple fact is the virtually all of the modern collecting game is based on hype. The players that take off are usually players of unknown potential. Zion Williamson. Jasson Dominguez. A buzz builds about this special amazing talent and the hype machine goes nuts. I've watched the breaking world pretty carefully the last two years or so. Names that people were salivating over even a year ago are now off the radar screen altogether. And sometimes the "off the radar screen" guy is a solid player. Luis Robert. Gavin Lux. But 2-3 years ago they were unproven and now we know what they are. They were more in demand unproven. Damm good players. But they are not the second coming of Mikey Mantle.

The bigger issue is there is no extraordinary mystery or mystique around players anymore today. Times have changed. Who are the biggest 2 names in the hobby. Mantle and Ruth. They are iconic. None one on this board (I assume) saw Ruth. Many board members saw Mantle but he was an enigma. It was a different world. He was a blank slate that people projected their hopes and dreams on. That's why even today a fairly mundane (some times perfectly obnoxious) guy in a lot of ways keeps his mystique.
You didn't know him like we "know" players today. Look at some of the stars of more recent timers. Aaron Rodgers. Matt Harvey. Curt Schilling. Dwight Gooden. We know them warts and all and they are actual, complicated human beings. Sure Ty Cobb and Babe were complicated people, but we've only read about them. Even my man Lou Gehrig is painted in such broad strokes that you don't really know him as a person. Same with actors. James Dean is a great example. Still to this day an enigma. People didn't know him like we know actors today. A different world. Many many actors today far better than James Dean, but they are real flesh and blood people and don't seem so special.

I have zero doubt that the super high end of the modern card collecting world is heavily manipulated by a small cabal of people, but that's a different discussion.

I agree, and it is all too clear to me that buying and flipping high value modern stuff, particularly basketball, is not for the faint of heart.

I’ve been saying for the past several years I thought higher end vintage and mostly all lower end would slow down or pull back a little bit in pricing. I have been wrong the whole way, I don’t see any of this stopping its Up Up and Away.

It's looking more and more to me that this is going to be a bumpy year for the economy, and especially for the markets. That might at least lower the altitudes reached by our stuff temporarily, but those dampers never seem to last long.

My investments are with my financial guy, and come with a lot of quarterly statements that have a lot of fine print. My cards might turn out to be investments, but they are first and foremost for fun, for ridding myself of those "work-a-day cares" as Mr. Burdick put it so long ago. I will agree with the modern market sentiment that cards I thought I overpaid for 3-5 years ago now seem like bargains (many I sold for decent profit) - and the ones I kept - well, I'm planning on keeping for a good long while.

I don't know if postwar stars remain as viable long term if there are more of them than say, T206 HOF'ers - but if not, so be it. I'd love to fill in some gaps in my 70's and 60's set efforts and various other postwar star wants at half price or less from today's mayhem.

That's what I thought. Who would be dumb enough to do that, unless it was part of some scam directed at those watching? You would at least take it to the back of the table behind some boxes or something.

Lately, my participation in the hobby has been to see if any cards in an auction are ones that I own*, and then hope they sell for more than I paid, so that when I look at VCP it shows a net gain. That way "on paper" (technically "on screen") I am getting richer!

Basically, I can't participate to the level I used to because the cards I like to buy (higher condition cards for sets I am putting together; rarer type cards in nice but not top condition) have gotten too expensive. So I either need to drop my standards and have sets with grades far apart or sell off partially completed sets to fund other purchases.

* I don't mean cards I consigned, I mean the same card in the same condition as one that I own...but not my actual card

I don't know as much as most of y'all about what is going on out there. But lately, I have seen a lot of people that have that same collector addiction in the modern realm that I saw in the 80s and 90s. Just like in the 80s and 90s, the market is set in the year it comes out into the next year. Most of the value degrades after that. A few things will go up. But the very high-priced stuff is a crapshoot and doesn't matter to most collectors since they are 1 of 50s or less. But there are people that are trying to put sets together. They'd rather buy the boxes or cases than the factory sets for the chance at the inserts. But they still try to build the sets.

I don't know what that means, but I wonder if many of them start working backward when they get tired of riding the crest of the wave.

I just have to wonder where all collectibles values are heading as the world holds its breath about what is unfolding in the Ukraine. Already the stock market has been hammered the past month, energy prices are skyrocketing, inflation surging, interest rates rising and gold inching up towards $2,000 an ounce. One would think, at least short term, collectibles are going to take a hit.

...stock market has been hammered. With stocks rather iffy, maybe even more money flows into cards.

Our corrupt mainstream media has been instructed to use the Ukraine story line as a diversion from what is really going on here, and what is coming in the next 8 months. 'Look over there, but not here'. Same old playbook. Rinse and repeat. That's my opinion.

I personally think there's some really good deals out there right now when digging deep and being patient, and I'm guessing they're going to get even better in the near future.

That's rather vague...care to elaborate?

Vintage is only going up…if you get a correction in quality vintage it’s only a short term thing….buy it.

Way way to Much Money Is Invested In Quality Vintage Cards not by guys like us who are collectors, we are the collateral beneficiaries, by guys who are strictly big card money buying investors.

I think some of you are thinking way too much into it comparing if the market continues being shaky, will this roll over and affect cards. I can say with 100% certainty (and for those of you have VCP, you can check for yourselves) that blue chips DO NOT lose value. Even when the market crashed in 2008 up until it began recovering in 2010, while prices with most assets were cut in half, cards like the 1952 Topps Mantles held their value and even continues rising. Although the economy can suffer, the rich will always have money and will continue to buy at high prices. Even if we did go to war in Europe, war happens to be very good for the US economy. It's what got us out of the "Great Depression in fact". It offers lots of jobs actually. Employment numbers rise dramatically. After WW2, lots of people lost their jobs and the economy sank again.

Exacto

I don't mean this in a arrogant way as that's not my personality, but it's not 'vague' at all to folks that have been truly paying attention the last several years. The MSM spoon feeds their narrative on a daily basis to the 'masses' as a cover story to keep us from noticing the true corruption that is destroying our country. It's worked for years, but with the mid-terms in 8 months and a social media 'change' on the horizon, the tide is slowly changing and the large amount of censorship will be coming to an end. It will be very interesting as it plays out. Again, just my opinion. Everyone's entitled to their own.

There have been quite a few new to the hobby collectors recently. While the majority of them may be starting with modern, I bet more of them move into vintage as time rolls on, rather than vintage guys move to modern. Basically, the demand for vintage will increase. Great for vintage resilience long term. Not sure if resilience is correct term - definition is ability to recover quickly from difficulties - I have not seen vintage go thru a difficult period to then rebound from. Rather perhaps plateau, but mostly just up.

I have always said that if those things become our #1 concerns, then surely the currency I used to purchase the worthless ephemera is ALSO worthless. The $ tied up in my Chase account is as worthless as the $ tied up in my Chase card.

I think the hobby is resilient so long as the US is. Any major political upheaval could always change that. I don't see our new overlords caring about pictures of a ball and stick game played during the adolescence of a former country's history.

I don't see any of that as likely and I will continue to "invest."

Cards are cards and stocks are stocks. Treat them as different things.

From the great Larry Williams:

“The most common bad habit I have seen in traders – good and bad ones – is the inability to react correctly to market action.”

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.