Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>David Seaborn</b><p>I remember a thread a few years ago where most of the N54er with a long history in the hobby mainly agreed the percentage was quite low. This was mainly for two reasons; 1) there are many beat up commons not worth slabbing, and 2) many of the hobby's best collections reside with collectors who started many years ago and don't have anything slabbed. While I think these are true statements, I think it's also fair to say that the percentage must be going up with time. The price of many commons has steadily risen, making their slabbing more reasonable. Although there are some who break cards out of their 'entombment', I think every major auction house gets many more graded, resulting in a net increase. Also, slowly many of these pioneering collectors (or their familes) are auctioning off their collections, where many of the cards are again being slabbed. <br /><br />Here's my question. What percentage of vintage cards (pre-WWI) do you think are slabbed right now? And, for historical perspective, what percentage do you think were slabbed, say seven years ago, in 2000? I'll guess just to get things started, but, of course, have no idea. Just want to see what everyone thinks.<br /><br />2000 - 8%<br />2007 - 14%<br /><br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>steve f</b><p>Reckon I'm a paranoid collector; <br /><br />100%

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>bruce Dorskind</b><p><br />From a buyer's perspective, graded cards, despite the plethora<br />of potential "issues" with the grading companies. provide a level<br />of security and comfort one could not enjoy with "raw cards."<br /><br />That said, there are still tens of thousands of raw, Old Judges, T206's, 1933<br />Goudeys and sprinklings from a cadre of other sets - i.e T201 Mecca<br />that remain in attics and basements and family collections.<br /><br />Accordingly, if one were to be able to look at the entire population<br />of baseball cards issued between 1870 and 1941 which still exist<br />today ( an impossible task if there ever was one), it would be difficult<br />to argue that more than one in four or one in five cards has been<br />graded. Our best guess is less than 15% of the total vintage card<br />population has been graded.<br /><br /><br />Best wishes for a terrific 2007. May it be packed with great finds<br /><br />Bruce Dorskind<br />America's Toughest Want List<br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Jay</b><p>I would guess under 10%. In my collection it is under 1%.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>If these early numbers are true (and they seem low to me) then I am definitely buying some stock in the grading companies. They clearly will have a lot of business in the coming years.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Peter Thomas</b><p>I think it is much higher 25% or more.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Our guess (me and my dog Trixie)is that the number for pre-war graded cards is 6.5% ....not a tenth of a percent more. I had to argue with Trixie about it but in the end she caved in and went with my number. (well, I bribed her with another stuffed toy to tear up but that's for another thread).....

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Geno</b><p>I would guess in the 10-15% range. I have a complete set of T205s with not a slab in sight. Of roughly 1000 pre-war cards in my collection, I'd guess about 10 are slabbed. That's 10 cards, not 10%...<br /><br />Take Care, Geno

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Steve M.</b><p>I was leaning towards 1% and with Geno's post am willing to commit to that estimate.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Unquestionably over 10% of prewar. Probably close to 15% but on the way to over 75%--everything except the real beaters.<br /><br />Jim

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Alan</b><p>David - Good question.<br /><br />The old-time collector probably doesn't have many (if any) of their vintage cards in slabs. The guys who what I call the "new registry" collectors are the one that have all (or almost all) of their vintage cards slabbed.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>[Probably close to 15% but on the way to over 75%--everything except the real beaters.]<br /><br />Jim,<br /><br />You mean that only 15% today, but will grow to over 75% at some time in the future? <br /><br />You would agree, however, that virtually all high grade pre-war (i.e., PSA 8 and higher) have already been slabbed and there will not be any new finds to meaningfully dilute the population reports of the high grade cards, correct?<br /><br />Paul<br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>john/z28jd</b><p>About 5% of my cards are graded but ive never actually had a card graded and dont plan on it any time soon

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>I'm guessing I have a couple of thousand pre WWI cards. 3 are graded. One I haven't busted out, yet, a T206 Elberfield portrait. The other 2 I got slabbed with plans on selling them. When the dust settles, I'll be at 0% graded. So for someone out there with 100 PSA T206s, when we're considered together, that would be about 4.5% graded. I think that's a high number. I'll peek at the Vintage Graded Baseball Card Forum and see what the thinking is over there.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>MikeU</b><p>Less than 50% of the Wagners in existence have been graded. It is much closer to around 25%-35%. It could be said that this card is the prime example of a card that would make sense to be nearly 100% graded. <br /><br />Lets say the Wagner is 25 times more likely to be graded than an average Pre-War card. I believe this is a conservative number (low side). That would put the number of Pre-War cards being graded in the 1%-1.5% range, which is very likely on the high side.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Guys,<br /><br />I have never personally slabbed any of my collection of over 200,000 cards. However, most of these cards are from the '80s and '90s and frankly not worth slabbing. <br /><br />Less than one per cent of my cards are slabbed and were purchased that way. These are high value "modern" star cards. For instance, Mantles, Mays, stars of that magnitude.<br /><br />Another one per cent of my cards are pre-war. To date, none of these cards are slabbed.<br /><br />My new years resolution is trade away all my new stuff and buy primarily pre-war vintage. Considering how much new stuff I have, it's really more like my resolution for the next 20 years. Laugh out loud.<br /><br />I do not see my situation as that unusual.<br /><br />If you look at all cards overall, no more than 5% are slabbed. Since pre-war stuff is in general more expensive, I would say no more than 10% of pre-war is slabbed.<br /><br />Peter

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Lee</b><p>My guess is probably around 15% are slabbed now overall for prewar. In my collection, 70% of the prewar cards are slabbed.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>My guess is that there are an enormous amount of prewar cards out there that haven't been graded. I would say the graded portion is just a fraction - maybe 2-3%.<br /><br />Think of Goudeys, Playballs, and T206s, and how many of them there are. Millions? <br /><br />-Al

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Preece1</b><p>I only have a few cards in my collection (25), but they are all graded, and all bye SGC. This way my 8 year old can handle them and I don't have a heart attack.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Paul,<br /><br />Yes on both questions. <br /><br />Jim

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>...then why have nearly 100% of the mintiest pre-war cards been graded while only 15% of the mid to low-grade cards been graded?<br /><br />And, while you're explaining that, on what do you base your theory?<br /><br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Peter Spaeth</b><p>If the question includes cards of all conditions, I would guess 5 percent.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Paul,<br /><br />Because thats where the money is.<br /><br />Also not many high grade collectors collect raw nrmt-mt vintage cards while there are undoubtedly quite a few raw low-mid grade collectors.<br /><br />Jim

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>I look forward to reading some responses to your theory.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Al,<br /><br />Millions? Yes--but how many do you think have been graded???<br /><br />Jim

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>fkw</b><p>Graded cards make about 3% of my collection (mainly to resell), and I get 10 cards graded every month on average.<br /><br />Just look at T206/R319 cards on eBay for an estimate. Its a low % that are graded. No one is going to slab their low grade commons. <br /><br />Id say its under 10%, and maybe under 5%.<br /><br />How many T206 cards has PSA and SGC graded? And many believe there are over 1 million T206 cards out there.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Jim,<br /><br />I don't believe that most of the mint Pre-War stuff has been graded. <br /><br />Probably the serious investor has over 50% of his pre-war near mint cards slabbed.<br /><br />However, the serious collector probably outnumber the serious investor by at least 2 to 1. The serious collector is probably waiting for the "fad" of grading to blow-over. So he has less than 50% of his near mint cards slabbed. Or possibly, he's waiting for SGC to beat out PSA in the grading wars. Who knows. Personally, I'm more likely to get a card graded at a show than sending it through the mail.<br /><br />So, it's quite possible that the best has yet to be slabbed.<br /><br />Peter

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Richard</b><p>Is it worth it to slab a T206 common in Good condition? Probably not. Not worth it for a 1933 Goudey common in Good condition either. Just as it is not worth it to slab a 1988 Donruss Roberto Kelly.<br /><br />Maybe the question should read what percent of the total population of prewar cards worth over $X are slabbed?<br /><br />If I pick X to be $0, my guess would be 2%<br />If I pick X to be $50, my guess would be 5%<br />If I pick X to be $100, my guess would be 10%<br />If I pick X to be $500, my guess would be 20%<br />If I pick X to be $1000, my guess would be 35%

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Jim, I would have agreed with your theory -- that all the good prewar stuff is or will soon be graded because 'that's where the money is' until recently when I met someone who had complete sets of 33 and 34 Goudey and T206 (minus the biggies). The cards were mostly collected in the 80s and were in pristine condition. He paid pennies (if that) on the dollar for the cards. Only one card was sent in for grading and it was a Cobb Green Portrait that came back a 7 - and he was disappointed as he thought it should have been an 8. The rest of the cards were just as nice - and will never be slabbed. The bottom line is that not everyone is looking to maximize the liquid value of their assets at the present time.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Richard,<br /><br />Interesting way to look at it. I would not disagree much with the first three categories but I think it ratchets up much more sharply as you get over $500.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Richard,<br /><br />So you basically came to the same conclusion I did. Probably less than 50% of the near-mint Pre-War cards have been slabbed. <br /><br />I just wish that I was in possession of these unslabbed cards. Laugh out loud.<br /><br />Peter

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />There are a lot of reasons to have your cards graded--insurance, storage,establishing a value, easier to handle. I respect what you are saying but I have found from experience that what collectors thing are near mint or mint cards often do not grade out that way. Also by high grade I was referring to 8s.<br /><br />Jim<br /><br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>"Millions? Yes--but how many do you think have been graded???"<br /><br />Only because I have absolutely no life, I will tell you EXACTLY how many.<br /><br />238,864.<br /><br />At least that's how many PSA has graded. I added them up. This includes all baseball cards (including postcards, stamps, CDVs, and anything else they grade EXCEPT pins, which I factored out) issued between 1800 and 1945. It does not include multi-sport sets like N28, N29, and Sport Kings. It also doesn't count the one card PSA has listed as a 1911 Topps Manny Trillo.<br /><br />If you factor out T205, T206, 1933 Goudey and 1934 Goudey, that number drops to 107,051.<br /><br />How many raw T206s, T205s, T201s, E121s, 33 and 34 Goudeys, Playballs, Double Plays, Diamond Stars, Fine Pens and Wide Pens are floating around out there? How many cabinets, N28s, N172s, and Exhibits?<br /><br />And lastly - and probably most importantly - how many raw 1920s strip cards?<br /><br />Millions? Is that safe to say? I think it is. I'll bet there are just as many raw 1933 Goudeys out there - if not more - than there are prewar cards that have been graded by PSA and SGC combined.<br /><br />-Al<br /><br />EDIT: Just for s's and g's, here's the breakdown of the PSA pop report:<br /><br />1800-1899: 2,182 cards<br />1900-1910: 9,988 cards<br />1911-1920: 114,709 cards (31,338 not counting T205 and 206)<br />1921-1930: 5,605 cards<br />1931-1940: 95,268 cards (46,826 not counting 33 and 34 Goudey)<br />1941-1945: 11,112 cards<br /><br />I suppose it's possible that I added wrong, or that the pop reports are not working, but that's the number I came up with.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Al,<br /><br />Great work--I must know you pretty well because I was going to count them but I said wait--Al might count them.<br /><br />So if you added vSGC,GAI and others do you think 325,000 graded. What do you think--10X that ungraded. <br /><br />I guess my 15% is high based on that.<br /><br />Jim

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Al C.risafulli</b><p>I would think the total number is higher than 325,000. SGC has graded 50,000 T205s, T206s, 33 and 34 Goudeys alone.<br /><br />It's easy to underestimate how strong SGC is in prewar if you're not watching it every day. On the non-mainstream stuff, SGC's pop report is higher than PSA's on many, many issues. I'd say the number would be over 400,000. The thing that's impossible to quantify is the number of crackouts, crossovers, and resubmits that haven't been taken out of the pop reports.<br /><br />Whether the number of raw cards is 10x that, there's obviously no way to know, but I would think there's even more. Sometimes it seems like there are four million strip cards out there alone. <br /><br />-Al

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>david-and-cindy</b><p>Out of 100 vintage cards none are slabbed.<br /><br />Were I to sell some of them, I'd get the nicest ones slabbed however.<br /><br />

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Wakefield</b><p>Insurance, a reason to have cards graded.<br /><br /><br />Folks should think twice before insuring cards. And maybe think some more if they are still considering it.<br /><br />If I buy a drawing by Marc Chagall, and insure it, that drawing would be listed on a separate schedule. And periodically I'd pay the premium. Again and again. One day, if I quit paying, I've created a presumption that maybe I've sold it. And since a Chagall is likely to appreciate in value, I'd be owing taxes on the ordinary income, the difference between the sale price and my basis in the drawing, its purchase price. If I die and the drawing is not in my estate, then I must have sold it, and my estate would owe taxes on that.<br /><br />Insurance creates a paper trail for the tax man.<br /><br />Since I collect cards for the cards, and not for their value, I don't worry much about all of that. But for folks who focus on certain cards in certain conditions because "that's where the money is", well that is where the tax man will go.<br /><br />So think, guys. And maybe think some more.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Brian H (misunderestimated)</b><p>Observations:<br />While the monetary impetus to grade cards is definitely very real, it only effects the old time collectors if (and eventually when) they or their heirs think about selling them. <br /><br />The newer collectors, as well as those that collect by buying with the proceeds from selling, are also more likely to get cards graded. <br /><br /> I think that there are a lot of cards out there that have yet to be graded and that the lion's share of those cards are not high grade (but not necessarily "beaters" either). I would guess around 7% or 8% of all pre-war cards have been graded with that number rising as the cards become more valuable since many cards are really not worth grading as a economic proposition (especially if you place some value on the time spent sending the card to be graded and filling out the forms etc).<br /><br /> I am fairly certain that a graded card that is "1 of 1 and none are graded higher" will not maintain that status, and command the premium value that status confers upon it, for very long.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>Bobby Binder</b><p>Grading is here to stay and with the internet it is essential to have your cards authenticated. We are going to see more and more cards available on line this is the way of the future. Card shows and shops are closing and getting less and less people to attend. So with dealers having to sell mostly on line they will be forced into getting even more cards graded just for the sake of authenticity. People rather be at home and buy on line and go to their PO box every few days to pick up the new additions. With the increase of values on lower grade material it makes sense to have them all graded for the most part if you want to sell.<br /><br />Personally I hope it all gets graded then it is better for my company and make it an even better site for members to get the proper price information.

Percentage of Vintage Cards Slabbed in Hobby
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Bobby,<br /><br />You timed your business venture well--no doubt all graded cards of value will be graded over time.<br /><br />Brian H,<br /><br />I would disagree with your last statement. While you may well be right that the number is only 7-8%. I think the vast majority of high end cards have been graded and pre-war pop 1s will not only hold their value but turn out to be an outstanding investment.<br /><br />Frank,<br /><br />What you say is true but if you have a good tax accountant their are certainly ways to minimize this.<br /><br />Jim