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-   -   Mike Trout INDEED!! (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=255563)

clydepepper 05-27-2018 06:40 AM

Mike Trout INDEED!!
 
The Angels aren't on nationally broadcasted games very often, so us folks in the east rarely get to see THE GREAT Mike Trout.

Last night was an exception...and he was exceptional!!


5-for-5 with 3 doubles and a 2-run Homer!


-and I never would have seen it if it hadn't been against the Yanks.

Jason 05-27-2018 06:54 AM

Funny I was thinking the exact same thing last night when he hit the HR to go 3 for 3. I didnt finish the game as 9-4 was good enough for me:D

EvilKing00 05-27-2018 12:03 PM

He is by far the best player in mlb. No one else is even close. Its a joke when people mention him and harper together.

Boy i wish he was in cf for the mets

Been doing fantasy baseball for about 15 years and over paying for trout always works out

100backstroke 06-13-2018 09:54 AM

Just got back-to-back 2 HR games. Wow!

Peter_Spaeth 06-17-2018 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EvilKing00 (Post 1781030)
He is by far the best player in mlb. No one else is even close. Its a joke when people mention him and harper together.

Boy i wish he was in cf for the mets

Been doing fantasy baseball for about 15 years and over paying for trout always works out

Harper is in danger of becoming Adam Dunn.

Arazi4442 06-18-2018 08:32 PM

I feel like we're going to look back at Trout vs. Harper the same way we now look at Nomar vs. Jeter

AGuinness 06-19-2018 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arazi4442 (Post 1787804)
I feel like we're going to look back at Trout vs. Harper the same way we now look at Nomar vs. Jeter

At first, I kind of took this as a slight to Nomar, who had a career peak (based on WAR7 - the best seven seasons of WAR in a career) that equalled Jeter's (43.1 for Nomar, 42.4 for Jeter based on B-Ref). Of course, Nomar was just injured way too much to build on his peak, while Jeter enjoyed many years of health and wracked up an impressive career.

Then I looked at the Trout vs. Harper parallel and it really doesn't do Trout justice. Harper, now in his 7th season, has a WAR7 of 26.7 (including one season of 10), so obviously there is some room to improve. Trout, now in his 8th season has a WAR7 of 60, and also has some room to improve that number with the current season being one of those seven for WAR7.

It might be easy to forget just how good Nomar's peak was, and the guy fell of the HOF ballot after two years, despite some damn good numbers that compare with some of the Hall's lesser shortstops or shortstops that have received more votes (Omar Vizquel, with 45.6 career WAR, got 37 percent of the vote last year).

But dang, Trout has lapped the field of his contemporaries already. Currently in his 8th year, everybody else in the top 10 is in their 11th year or later. The closest "under 10 seasons" player in the active list is Chris Sale, with 39.4 WAR and in his 9th season, at number 30 on the list. Mookie Betts and Nolan Arrenado both rank higher in the active career WAR list than Harper, and both each with fewer seasons.

Harper has ample opportunity to improve his career WAR and peak WAR, being so young. Of course, Trout does, too. Perhaps they'll end up closer to one another in the end, but I wouldn't bet on it. Trout has blown the field away in comparison to his contemporaries, and it doesn't look like the end is in sight.

Peter_Spaeth 06-19-2018 02:46 PM

Considering that he was hitting everything in sight in April, Harper's BA now of around .210 is just astonishing for someone of his talent.

packs 06-19-2018 02:52 PM

Harper's really not doing himself any favors in his walk year. Would you pay 400 million for a guy hitting 212?

Peter_Spaeth 06-19-2018 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1787998)
Harper's really not doing himself any favors in his walk year. Would you pay 400 million for a guy hitting 212?

I think this is his problem -- he's pressing too hard and now has himself all tied up in knots mentally and can't seem to get his groove back.

AGuinness 06-19-2018 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1787998)
Harper's really not doing himself any favors in his walk year. Would you pay 400 million for a guy hitting 212?



On the flip side, I think this production may be his floor, and while the Mendoza line stinks, he still has an OPS thatís currently 20 percent above the average player. And he is just 25. There will be teams that will step up and pay the man some big bucks this winter.


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dgo71 06-19-2018 10:13 PM

Interesting conversation on XM today, basically saying the difference between a guy like Trout and Harper isn't the talent, its the bad days. A bad day for Trout is 0-for-3 with a walk and a steal. A bad day for Harper is 0-for-5 with 3 Ks. Also, Trout has not gone more than 2 consecutive games without getting on base at any point in his MLB CAREER. Harper has slumps that last for a month. The host (a former player whose name escapes me) had the opinion that Harper isn't worth a huge contract when his production disappears with volatility and regularity.

packs 06-20-2018 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness (Post 1788022)
On the flip side, I think this production may be his floor, and while the Mendoza line stinks, he still has an OPS that’s currently 20 percent above the average player. And he is just 25. There will be teams that will step up and pay the man some big bucks this winter.

A team will do it but I don't think it's a great idea if you're not already a winner. Chris Carter isn't going to turn a team around, even if his name is Bryce Harper and he plays better defense.

AGuinness 06-20-2018 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1788175)
A team will do it but I don't think it's a great idea if you're not already a winner. Chris Carter isn't going to turn a team around, even if his name is Bryce Harper and he plays better defense.

I'm not saying I want my team to sign him, but his flaws seem super obvious now since he's slumping. I don't think his market will be limited to one team, but a bunch will see the upside: if Chris Carter is his FLOOR, plus he's going to bounce back from this season, plus there's room for him to improve because he's so young, there's a big contract out there for him.
I think wins (via WAR) are costing roughly $8 million in free agency at this point. Maybe Boras will pursue a short-term or opt-out laden deal, but if they are gunning for $400 mil, a 10-year deal at $40 mil a year would be an expectation of about 5 wins per year. I think he's at 1 win so far this year, even slumping he'll likely hit 2 wins. With his pedigree (super prospect, MVP, etc.) and the other factors (age, teams flush with money, etc.), even after this season a $400 million contract isn't off the table, I don't think. I think it wouldn't be tough for a team to argue that 5 WAR a season out of Harper is a reasonable expectation.
I just don't want my favorite team doing it (and they won't)...

clydepepper 06-21-2018 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness (Post 1788369)
I'm not saying I want my team to sign him, but his flaws seem super obvious now since he's slumping. I don't think his market will be limited to one team, but a bunch will see the upside: if Chris Carter is his FLOOR, plus he's going to bounce back from this season, plus there's room for him to improve because he's so young, there's a big contract out there for him.
I think wins (via WAR) are costing roughly $8 million in free agency at this point. Maybe Boras will pursue a short-term or opt-out laden deal, but if they are gunning for $400 mil, a 10-year deal at $40 mil a year would be an expectation of about 5 wins per year. I think he's at 1 win so far this year, even slumping he'll likely hit 2 wins. With his pedigree (super prospect, MVP, etc.) and the other factors (age, teams flush with money, etc.), even after this season a $400 million contract isn't off the table, I don't think. I think it wouldn't be tough for a team to argue that 5 WAR a season out of Harper is a reasonable expectation.
I just don't want my favorite team doing it (and they won't)...



As much as any factor other than his own poor performance IMO, the 'rise' of Aaron Judge in NY along with the addition of Stanton have lessened the potential record-breaking deal Harper would receive.

With the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox riding high right now, the Dodgers may bee the only landing spot for him.

In a more perfect world (aka without Boras), a highly-incentive-laden contract would be appropriate and possible...too bad for whatever 'sap' shells out...come to think of it...that kind of thinking would bring the Rangers back into the picture...or even the Orioles. A one-for-one trade for Machado???

We live in crazy times...anything is possible...
.

packs 06-21-2018 10:19 AM

The Nationals aren't even going to blink either because they don't need the guy when you have Juan Soto already on the team and Victor Robles at AAA. Harper has almost no leverage now that he's playing so poorly. The Nationals will let him walk, he'll have no trade value to a contender while he hits under 220 and at worst the teams who do want to sign him can opt to wait him out over the off season like they did to players this year.

Peter_Spaeth 06-21-2018 11:12 AM

The worst of it is, nobody wants to buy my PSA 10 Finest Red Refractor. :eek:

clydepepper 06-21-2018 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1788522)
The worst of it is, nobody wants to buy my PSA 10 Finest Red Refractor. :eek:



You have company there...went all in - D'OT!


.

nat 06-21-2018 02:17 PM

Harper is not Trout's equal, but he's a lot better than his results so far this season. His problem is largely driven by his batting average on balls in play. He's got a .204 mark this year, versus .314 for his career. Now, a hitter's batting average on balls in play is not as predictable as a pitcher's, but players do tend to regress towards their own career norms. Sure, a player's "true" batting average on balls in play can change - foot or leg injuries, a re-worked swing, lots of things can do it - but there's still a trend there. So it's very likely that he's going to get at least some of that BABIP back.

Also, his low WAR total this season is partly the result of very poor fielding numbers. He's at -7 Rfield for the year so far. He's a better fielder than that, you shouldn't expect him to be that bad going forward.

I doubt that $400 million is on the table any more. Even if he's better than this, you can't ignore performance that is poor and recent (the worst combination). But someone is going to give him a lot of money, because all of the signs indicate that he is better than his recent performance would indicate.

packs 06-21-2018 03:33 PM

An OPS hovering around 800 does seem to be his natural ability though. Aside from his MVP season he hasn't topped 854 in any other season. I wouldn't pay 400 million for that.

howard38 06-21-2018 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1788641)
An OPS hovering around 800 does seem to be his natural ability though. Aside from his MVP season he hasn't topped 854 in any other season. I wouldn't pay 400 million for that.

He was over 1.000 last season.

Peter_Spaeth 06-21-2018 05:59 PM

Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? His career is .894. How that translates into natural ability of .800 is beyond me.

packs 06-22-2018 10:50 AM

He only played 111 games last year and has an outlier year during his MVP season. That's why his career mark is where it is. His first three seasons his OPS was 816. The season between his MVP and last year his OPS was 814. His OPS this year is 821.

AGuinness 06-22-2018 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1788910)
He only played 111 games last year and has an outlier year during his MVP season. That's why his career mark is where it is. His first three seasons his OPS was 816. The season between his MVP and last year his OPS was 814. His OPS this year is 821.

I don't think dismissing his MVP season is fair, because he clearly has the underlying talent/skills to do that. That season wasn't a fluke, he's been considered a great talent since he was in his mid-teens. And I don't think GMs of teams will dismiss it either, which is why I think he will get a big contract. Unless his underlying talent/skills have changed, and in particular thanks to his young age, there's a pretty good chance he can put up another MVP-type season or two in the coming years.

Side note: Harper's MVP season ties him for 53rd on the Baseball-Reference single season position player WAR list. Babe Ruth populates three of the top four on that list, while the player who ranks third on the list kind of surprised me: Yaz in his triple crown year of 1967.

Peter_Spaeth 06-22-2018 06:37 PM

I cannot imagine a better proxy for his OPS than his actual lifetime OPS.

the 'stache 06-24-2018 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1788910)
He only played 111 games last year and has an outlier year during his MVP season. That's why his career mark is where it is. His first three seasons his OPS was 816. The season between his MVP and last year his OPS was 814. His OPS this year is 821.

Harper leads the NL with 19 home runs and 56 walks. He's hitting the ball hard, and seeing pitches well. His OPS is off this year because of his batting average, which is only .214. He was a career .285 hitter coming into this season.

Harper is having just terrible luck. He's got a career .323 BAbip coming into this season. It's .211 in 2018. He's clearly been hitting the ball hard.

Harper is too good a hitter to be held down much longer. His numbers will normalize.


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