What Percentage of Vintage Cards Have Been Graded?
 

I'm curious as to folks input on this. I know when I frequented this board regularly 10-12 year ago many people would talk about the 'old school' collectors and the fact that many of the largest collections were composed of entirely raw cards.

As time has passed, I'm sure the percentage had gone up...but how much?

I'm also sure the percentage varies with set. For example, I imagine a much higher percentage of low condition cards from the 19th century have been graded than, say, T207's.

What do you think the percentage is for old judges? For T206's? etc.

Thanks, Dave

I'm guessing 20%

Depends on the card. Probably a lot of Goudeys lying in shoe boxes. And Cracker Jacks. Doubt a whole lot of Ruth or Gehrig early cards are still lying around and not entombed.

If we including all grades, I would guess far less than that, but I have no idea.

Also depends a lot on the issue.

If we're talking about Zeenuts, I'd say less than 5%

The number would be higher for T206s and Cracker Jacks, lower for Old Judges.

Yeah, if the question is how many grade 8s and 9s are lying around as bookmarks or in attics (naturally, what other room could they be in?). . . I'd say very few. The CJs for example are 100 years old now. That's a lot of time to be lying around. Possibly still "deserving or attention"? Sure. But unlikely to find "one of the better pasteboards extant" I would think.

If you're talking pre-1930s baseball only, I would say 10% or less.
Once you add in the 30s, 40s, and 50s, it would drop even further (since your title referred to "vintage").
I'd say 10-20% still not discovered or buried in cellars and attics, awaiting their day in the sun.
Plus the vast majority of pre-1930 cards are in such bad shape (torn/cut/creased) that it's not worth grading them.

I honestly believe people always overestimate the number/percentage of cards graded. It doesn't apply so much to the pre-war side, but take me and the friends I grew up with in the 70's-80's, for example. Until right now, through Bobby's group submission, I have never had a single one of my cards graded even though I have many, many thousands of them. And not a single friend of mine has ever had anything graded either. Most still have their cards in shoeboxes and what not in the attic, basically forgotten about. So the percentage of cards graded for us is less than 1%.

My feeling is that there are untold numbers of pre-war cards still hidden away in people's homes. I believe 'regular' people, for the most part, wouldn't automatically look for a grading company when they find grandpa's stuff. Of course, with the internet being what it is these days, making information so readily available, I would definitely conclude that more and more of these same people are realizing that they need to have their cards graded. So the number of cards being graded is surely on a huge upward climb.

%
 

Don't forget about the people like me who remove their prewar cards from their slabs. Some of my cards are graded, mostly SGC's. Most of the PSA and Beckett slabs are opened and the raw cards stay in my collection.

Nothing personal Rick, but I safely assume you are are an extreme rarity in that regard. (Except of course for the the 3 people who will now immediately post to say that they do precisely the same thing.)

To each his own is my golden rule. I don't need to touch cardboard. Happy to hold a plastic slab that keeps away the red wine, Italian sauce, and people's dirty hands.

It must vary considerably by set, right? There are probably a few Just So's laying about in grandpa's attic, but given how expensive they are, surely almost all that have turned up have been graded. Right?

Or to take a less extreme example. PSA and SGC together have graded about 275 copies of the N28 Clarkson. (No doubt with some resubmissions in there too.) An ebay search turns up four for sale, three graded and one raw. If only 10% of them had been graded, and there were 2000 odd raw N28 Clarksons out there, surely more than 25% of those for sale on ebay would be raw.

No, I would expect even a higher percentage, although it is only 1 in ungraded, of cards for sale to be graded. Grading adds value or at least makes cards easier to sell. On the other hand, cards sitting in collections often have no reason to be graded.

In my collection, the only set that i am working on getting completely graded is the one that I am currently working on, t205. My t206 set only has a few cards graded. My 1933 Goudey set has no cards graded, etc. I only send in a few cards for grading each year, mostly cards that i am planning on selling. I mostly buy graded cards, however at the pace that i am going it will be years before I get to 10% of my collection graded.

I would say low single digits, 1-5% of the total. Of course some rarities of cards would be close to 100%, but vintage as a whole very low. I have bought many graded cards over the years but have graded 1 myself. In general all of the collectors I know well are the same and have graded little to none of their collection.

I have never sent in a card to be graded, and have only a vague idea how one would do that. I have a few dozen graded cards out of the thousands in my collection, but they were all that way when I got them. I've cracked a few out, but mostly I've kept them as is, knowing that I can crack them out later if I want to. None of my most valuable cards are graded.

Immediately I thought it's gotta be a pretty high percentage. But then I realized that people collect cards that tend to be graded- HOFs, high end sets etc. there are probably so many ungraded no name cards out there that the percentage is tiny

I’m gonna speak to post war only because that’s all I’ve ever collected. But I sometimes wonder if the day will come when the large magority of cards ranging from say ex/mt up will be encapsulated. In truth I have no idea how many pw cards are out in the wild.
Or is it possible once the psa market becomes so saturated, grading will grind to a halt?

Maybe 10% of mine are graded.

100% of my pw cards are graded. I don't have a massive collection, probably about 150.:)

Italian sauce is gooooooooood. :)

There is no single answer to this question.

Let's take 1923 W572s (which I collect).

PSA Pop report lists 17 graded Ty Cobbs and 18 graded Babe Ruths. SGC has 23 Ty Cobbs and 19 Babe Ruths. I know even Beckett's has at least 1 of each. How many ungraded cards of these stars exist? There are some. But it is less common to see ungraded ones for sale than graded ones. As a WAG, I'd say about 100 or each player (give or take) exists.

But let's compare these players with Mostil, Ray Grimes, John Collins, Elmer Smith and Severied.

Why did I pick these specific guys? They were all originally printed on the same exact ten card strip as Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. So we know they all started out with the same number of cards. (It's logical to assume Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb would have been thrown away less and there are probably a few more of those cards than the common guys - but this is the closest we can get.)

Mostil - 3 PSA, 6 SGC. Grimes - 2 PSA, 3 SGC. Collins -3 PSA, 1 SGC. Smith - 3 PSA, 10 SGC. Severied - 0 PSA, 5 SGC. Ungraded cards for these guys are plentiful.

So for some common players we have 4-5 cards graded. Some common players have as many as 13. And there are at least 41 Ty Cobbs and 38 Babe Ruths.

So what do we know:

1) Stars for this set (and I expect just about all sets) get graded more often.
2) Grading for commons can vary pretty widely. Between 10x and 4 x less often than the star player (based on this set).


It also shuld be noted that this set isn't terribly popular (except for me and Brian!).

Most of the cards sell for very little money compared to T206s, T205s, cracker jacks, OJs, etc.

So there is less incentive to grade cards in this set compared to others. BUT all of those other sets, had much larger populations produced.


If forced to give an answer - I'd bet major stars and rare cards/pre-war sets are mostly graded. Common players - mostly ungraded. Mainstream sets - more graded. Less mainstream sets - less graded. Rare desired sets - mostly graded.

Cheers,
Patrick

Great post
 

Patrick that was a great, well-thought-out post.

I appreciate all the feedback from everyone. It certainly makes sense that more valuable cards (major HOFers, rare printings, high condition cards) would be graded at a higher rate for many sets.

There are a finite number of these vintage cards left to be graded. Is this why we sometimes see TPG companies targeting newer cards with higher distributions or are there still so many ungraded vintage cards that the supply will not dry up for the graders in the foreseeable future?

Reading through the posts again, I do wonder how many barn and attic finds are still left out there. Impossible to know, but can't wait for the next one!

“....a finite number of vintage cards left to be graded....” is perhaps true, but the insurance policy the TPGs have is the finite number of collectors who crack graded cards out of their “tombs” as soon as they receive them, and the crossover artists who change the slabs of a given card, and the bumpaholics who think a card is undergraded and crack it out for resubmission.

Certainly the TPGs are not worried in the least about only a finite number of vintage cards left to be graded, for they are more than happy to grade the same card over and over and over again.

In the auction game, “shill” bidders are the poison. In the TPG game, “shill” crackers are a gift that keeps on giving for the slabbers.

I must qualify as old-timey type. I have a handful of PW graded cards purchased but never submitted anything. I guess would rather spend the money on buying some cool obscure NYY card than grade everything. A 20% estimate on graded material feels high but may be good estimate amongst our small market of active collectors

Overall pre-war graded is about 15.5% :) . I still believe the great majority is not slabbed.

,

Little twist - How much percentage of investment type pre-war cards have been graded? Y'know, the T206 HOFers in PSA 5 or better? HOF Cracker Jacks, Goudey HOFers in PSA 5/6 or better, early Dimaggio and Ted Williams' in nice condition, 1920's semi odd ball Ruth's and Gehrigs. etc. ?

Although I don't have my high value cards graded. (I know I should, maybe?) I believe that number is definitely higher.

The only graded cards I own were purchased but I know if I lived Stateside, I would definitely have my Mick, Mays, Robinson and likely all of my high numbers graded by now.

Less than 10%. We have no idea how many treasure or old time hoarders never heard of a graded card. Just recently a hoarder, collector was uncovered with countless ungraded cards. They might not have been pre war but still new to the market find. No telling how many T206's (maybe millions) are still out there.

I think the 10-15% graded may be about right for prewar. I've only graded a few, and that's about the range for my collection. The majority of it is probably not worth grading. There's maybe 10-20 cards I should grade, and maybe about double that that I think I'll eventually grade. I've been very down on all grading companies lately, so it may be a while before that happens.

The stuff in better condition or with higher value will naturally be higher, although there are still plenty of nice cards out there. Maybe a third of the T206s I graded were bought with grading in mind.

When I was looking at Population reports as flawed as they are, one thing that I noticed was that At least for T206, HOFers and the less common varieties were slabbed about twice as often as the commons. For a handful of cards where I could tell, they were probably slabbed far more often. For example there were more Magies than Magees.

Steve B

+1

Less then 15%. It seems like all of the good stuff nowadays is going to the Major Autions Houses. Sets are the rarity, imo they will be the thing people will always pay up for.

I would definitely agree with this, particularly among pre-war cards.

pre WWI...83%

I know personally that Pete is incorrect on his estimate, as I own 19% percent of all known and unknown pre-WW1 cards that exist, and less than 1% of them are graded.

Brian

Methinks Pete's estimate would be more accurate if he had said that 83% of pre-WWII cards are ungraded!

dammit!

I tetered...but i DO agree with you.

I agree with your total, but disagree with your rarities. I would bet that even rarities have more ungraded than graded examples.

Doug