Aaron Judge
 

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?

Dunn 2.0 would be a great player! Being in NY will only help and I hope he can cut down on the strikeouts but I can't remember a guy his size ever having great success in MLB. If he shortens his swing and can learn to take walks he will be a stud.

Michael Conforto has a better shot at the moment (Mets).

Maybe he will surprise me, but I don't rate him highly at all. As a Yankee fan I'd be ecstatic if he projects out to a Richie Sexson type, but I think that's pushing the boundries of expectations, and that certainly doesn't map out as a player to "invest" in.

I tend to agree with you. I just don't think he'll develop the ability to walk which really puts pressure on him to hit 30 plus homers a year. Even if he is able to do that we all saw Chris Carter nearly go to Japan due to lack of interest.

It's not like Judge has put up mind-blowing stats in the minor leagues. Not sure how pretty good minor league hitter maps out to Superstar major league potential. It's not like he's just out of High School either. He's pushing 25 already.

He's about 8 months younger then Mike Trout.

Yeah I mean max potential would be a Giancarlo Stanton type but Stanton hit 39 homers as an 18 year old. Judge never did anything like that while being much older and having the benefit of college ball.

yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..

Rob Deer the second. Big guy, big long swing, lots of K's. A sucker for low outside sliders that he can't tell are not fastballs. Brings to mind Dusty Springfield's hit in the '60's--"Wishing and Hoping."

Good luck on that plunge,

Larry

The problem with Sanchez is that his track record--minor league stats, with a fairly large sample size--don't reflect anything like that kind of production. Either a short term fluke (a la Ron Swoboda--10 HR's in his first 118 AB while batting .271 during that period in '65), or he had some artificial additive assistance. Sanchez had some decent to good HR stats in the minors over a pretty fair number of years, but nothing remotely resembling a homer per every 10 AB.

Regards,

Larry

I think that's a pretty big reach. Sanchez hit a total of 30 homers last year. He hit 25 homers total the year before accounting for his various minor league stops. I don't see anything out of the ordinary with his production. He of course won't hit home runs at that pace over a full year, but there's no reason not to believe he is a 30 homer guy.

Sanchez is solid, and he's young with room to grow. Barring injuries he should have a good career.

Catching is a tough position. I'd be happy with Jorge Posada type production out of him at the plate, while being superior to Posada defensively.

Whether that's "investment" level for a modern player is another thing. There's always short term hype..........long term on modern cards, I think the pool of players is really small you'd want to bother with. There will be a bunch of borderline HOF'er guys most people won't care about 15 years from now.......and projecting ANY young player not named Mike Trout out to HOF status is a big reach.......borderline or not.

Baseball is littered with guys who put up big stats the first 5-10 years of their career or so, only to fizzle out too early for collectors to pay too much attention to them years down the line.

Very true. Just look at David Wright. His career parallels Mattingly almost exactly. Nomar and Joe Mauer are other names that come to mind. On the pitching side I'm sure everyone assumed Johan and Lincecum were destined for all time great statuses too.

Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.

As I think all these players are good and way to early to
Make an investment but that being said that puts the whole excitement in the collecting a young player. It's a huge swing if you invest in the right player who's cards are relatively cheap but it can easily go the other way lol. If I had to choose right now besides the obvious would be correa. I think the way he is on the field defensively, size, speed and a big bat all outshinesthe players mentioned in this thread. He would be my pick for future HOF.

Gary Sanchez put on a show today. Do not run on that man.

I've changed my opinion on Aaron Judge. Watched him quite a bit last year, and he had holes on inside corner fastballs and sliders down and away, chasing the latter out of the zone and down into the dirt. After seeing him several times this year, it appears that he has moved back off the plate, taking advantage of his long arms, so that if a pitch appears inside, it almost certainly is, and he takes it instead of getting jammed or swinging and missing. Now, anything on the inside corner appears to him to be middle/in, or even middle/middle.

He's also far enough off the plate that he can't reach the slider in the lower, outside corner that he used to see as a fastball, and chase it into the dirt. For the most part (one exception last night), he knows he can't even reach it and lays off. If the pitcher hits that low outside corner now with a fastball, you simply tip your cap to him, as doing that is not so easy, and persisting in that attempt, unless the pitcher has really good command, is a very good way to get behind in the count. It's also a very tough pitch to do anything with in any event, unless you are Miguel Cabrera.

Last night, against Toronto, he hit a 450 foot homer over the centerfield fence, and didn't even have to swing that hard to do so. He is also a good fielder with a strong arm. I don't know that he will continue to hit .320 or .330 with 35-40 (or even more?) homeruns, but it does look like he is going to be very good, at this still very early point in his career. Also saw the interview with Eduardo Perez and this seems to be a very smart young man, understanding quite well the hitter-pitcher battle that is at the heart of the game, how they are trying to get him out, and willing and able to adjust.

I don't invest in such young phenoms until they have proved their worth and are in their mid to late 30's downslide, when demand has usually diminished, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Best of luck in your collecting,


Larry

I think Judge has made great strides and adjustments, in terms of his approach at the plate. That is what you want to see in a young player. He's laying off the low outside pitch that got him so much last year. His power to all fields is electrifying. His attitude is affable and humble. He also has an intangible star quality. If he hits 40+ HRs and keeps the average and K's respectable, the pinstripes and the accompanying media stage will combine to make him quite popular.

I have been completely surprised by Judge's season thus far. He looks like a totally different hitter. The same power is there but he's able to make more of it with his ability to limit his poor swings and stay off the garbage. I did not expect him to be able to do that at all. Don't know if it'll hold up but he's really opened my eyes at least.

Flash in the pan
 

Last year it was Trevor story who got off to a blazing start his stuff was lazor hot
Now you cannot give it away. Give me a dead hall of Famer any day and twice on sundays . you want to gamble Kentucky Derby tomorrow at least it will be over in 2 minutes, verses waiting for a pipe dream

I certainly under-estimated Judge. I understand he was drafted more as an athlete and on his potential rather then his actual skills at the time, as he came to baseball a little late.

Looks like things finally started to click for him. He always had the pop, but just had problems with the contact.

Still, I imagine it's a short term thing with him. He still got off to a late start, and would have to completely dominate for a long time to pay off if you plan on holding on to his cards. Short term, I guess it will just be a timing thing, much like penny stocks.

Also, don't forget. Big guys like him get hurt. He seems athletic now, but it's only a matter of time before back and knee issues kick in and he gets relegated to DH or 1st Base duty.

I'd be happy if he could be our Jay Buhner for the next 5 years or so. Luckily the Yankees didn't trade him for Ken Phelps before he finally blossomed.

His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.

Love watching this kid player play. Night and day from the player last season. Slumping a bit from the hot start, but I don't feel that will last long. He is helping in the field and showed off the arm throwing out Billy Hamilton at second the other night. Future is bright for him.

Mike

Saw a couple of his games in the last few days. They are starting to get him out consistently with pitches breaking down and in (circle changes from righties; sliders from lefties), with a high fastball or two mixed in. Will have to see if he adjusts. I still wouldn't buy him in any event until he has proven his worth over a large major league sample size, is in his 30's down-slide phase, and the speculative and transient demand has migrated to the newest, latest and greatest hot item!

Best of luck and joy in your collecting,

Larry

Well to the OP I hope you did not listen to us and purchased in bulk 2013 autographed Judge cards back when you posted this. I could not pull the trigger and only have one Rookie Judge auto (Cost $27) and another Woulda Coulda Shoulda story ... GOOD CALL ..
J

Ah, the nature of the new card market for up and coming phenoms! Initial demand is primarily speculative and transient, with card dealers bursting at the seams to take advantage of that "must have" urge within us. Better to wait until they are in their mid to late 30's downslide and this type of demand will have moved on to the latest and greatest. Their cards will still be out there, and likely much cheaper (see the Topps 1990 No-Name on Front Frank Thomas rookie for comparison purposes. When first discovered and subsequently popularized in the early '90's, Beckett had it for $1600 in near mint. By 2009, a NrMt to Mt example could be had for less than $600. Just a few months ago, however, one in PSA 3 went for over $2K on ebay. Moral of the story? Buy when demand is lowest, but before the player makes the HOF).

Good luck in your collecting,

Larry

Saw Judge hit a 457 footer last weekend versus the Astros to dead center. Mantle type power (almost) with Wheaties box, all-American good looks. Hope he makes good, as it would be great for the game!

Best wishes,

Larry

He's got a really good story too. I hadn't realized he was adopted. I hope he partners with some foundations to help out other kids in his situation. We need more Curtis Grandersons and Adam Joneses in the game.

If you guys haven't seen it, Judge made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other day where he put on a pair of glasses and spoke with Yankee fan who did not recognize him. Pretty funny.

Mike

Didn't know that! He was very down to earth, humble and unassuming in his recent interview with Eduardo Perez. A definite credit to the game!

Happy Collecting,

Larry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk :D

Looks like Mantle in his prime from the right side after this weekend--3 HR's, including a 495-footer Sunday (yes, Mantle did hit the ball that hard and far)! Hope he keeps it up, as he is really a high quality guy.

Regards, Larry

Unbelievable what this kid is doing. I would have traded him for a serviceable starter 6 months ago. Hitting for a high average and OBP to while playing solid defense. Glad I was wrong.

It's like he just learned to hit recently. In hindsight it makes sense as baseball was never really his first sport until he got drafted.

Could Judge, Severino, Sanchez be the next Petitte, Jeter, Posada? Aaron Hicks a late blooming Bernie Williams?

I am loving watching this kid play ball. His mental approach, oppo power, personality, star power. My kids love him, too. Been having as much of a blast collecting his cards lately. He has quite the bright future, on the Yankee stage.

I wonder if it kills Cano to see Judge rise as high as he has. There's no doubt being a Yankee adds to his star while Cano, probably the best second baseman of his generation, languishes in Seattle.

I doubt Judge bothers him, but the fact that Castro and Gregorius are doing so well from the middle infield positions might bother him a bit.

Not just the young guys already up, but the Yankees have made some incredible trades the past several years, picking up Gregorius, Castro, Aaron Hicks and Tyler Clippard for what amounts to a bag of rocks.

Adam Warren and Gleyber Torres for loaning out Aroldis Chapman for a few months.

A part of me wishes they had kept Andrew Miller, though they got some nice future talent in return.

I just mean that Cano would be the face of the Yankees right now if he were still with the Yankees. I wonder if it bothers him that Judge is Mr. Yankee while he's not really anyone to the baseball world right now. He was the heir apparent after Jeter.

Yeah, hard to turn down the security of a 10 year contract I imagine. As much as I would have liked the Yankees used their money to keep Cano instead of signing Ellsbury, I'm glad they didn't try to match the Mariners ridiculous offer.

In less then a few years they will probably be happy to be able to unload his contract for a Top 500 Single A prospect.

I don't miss Cano...pretty sure he didn't do it the right way if you know what I mean. Judge seems to be the right guy at the right time...and there doesn't seem to be any doubt that the guy is as natural as they come.


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What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?

It means that I have my suspicions he cheated. And I don't miss him. Happy with Didi and Starling...and will be happy with Torres or Mateo. Love what the Yankees have done to make over this team...and they did it quickly. And they seem to have done it right.


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I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.

BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.

There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


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That seems way off base to me. The Yankees didn't let him walk away. They got priced out when they gave a huge contract to Ellsbury instead. I think you're revising history a little bit. They wanted to sign Cano too, just not for the years or the dollars. It's my opinion Cano got miffed when they gave the years and dollars to Ellsbury but not him. At the time the Yankees were desperate to unseat Boston and signing away their premier player at the time made sense. But I don't think for a second they didn't want to sign Cano.

Also, of the two of them, only Cano is living up to the money. 2 time all star and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Can't name anything Ellsbury has done.

You're presupposing that I don't think he's a good player...he is a great player. I just believe that there was concern that he was tainted. And so it was easier to go after Ellsbury, hurt the Sox, and distance themselves from Cano. To your point, the Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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Jeez, if anybody was cheating it was Jacob Ellsbury for that one outlier year he used to get his big contract.

Take that one year out of his career and he's essentially an injury prone Brett Gardner, at twice the cost of Gardner.

Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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In 2013 Ellsbury hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and a .298 BA. He had a nice year, but he was not their premier player. Ortiz and Pedroia were.

If you read the book on A-Roid that came out a year or so ago, there is a reference to a text from Yankee management to A-Roid that Cano needs some 'roids. That, coupled with his initial fall-off in production upon reaching Seattle (which he attributed to stomach problems, if I recall correctly--yeah, right!), is what triggered the hints. I simply believe that that is one genie you never, ever get entirely back in the bottle. At least with the grueling 162-game schedule, + spring training + playoffs. Lenny Dystra, stated in his book that he found that his body could not stand up to the strain, simply picked a physician out of the phone book (sure he did!) and asked for something to help him cope. The doctor prescribed anabolic steroids, and Dystra is very straightforward about it. I really don't know if the situation I still believe persists (does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one using the steroid he tested positive for?) is good or bad--it is just the way it is.

My humble regards,

Larry

What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

He was the big free agent though. Pedroia and Ortiz weren't free agents. Boston had just won the World Series. The entire league wanted Ellsbury, which is why the Yankees paid what they did. You might be revising history too.

I don't think any of those guys are particularly durable, so plenty of room for a 4th outfielder and platoon/pinch hit situations I think.

The more flexibility the better. Not that you want your $20 million dollar guy to be your 4th outfielder, but we've paid more then that for A-Rod to essentially ride the bench or miss entire seasons.

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

Being so immersed in PreWar and vintage, I had long forgotten the thrill and sheer fun of chasing the key cards of a current star. Judge is a real positive jolt for Yankee fans of all ages right now, and fans of baseball as well.

Pivoting to the value discussion, bought a bunch of his Blue Heritage Autos at the $750 price point, and finally added the Red Ink variation yesterday.

After the 2013 Chrome and the 2017 Heritage autos, I'm a big fan of the Topps Series 1 1987 style auto card, seems scarce relative to the current crop.

The Topps Archives cards are also very cool. I really dig how they smartly embrace the old 1983 design; creates inherent appeal for us ancient 40-yr olds who collected as kids back then.

It's fun, but it's also pure speculation. There was a similar mania for Strasburg rookies that I recall.

I missed the boat on Judge but I'm hoping Chance Adams and Blake Rutherford live up to their hype too. Both are relatively cheap pick ups at the moment. Adams has really flown under the radar.

That's way, way smarter then the time I bought up about 15 Michael Jordan Rookies for about $5 each, and then sold them a week later for about $20 each, back in the later 80's.

Still kicking myself for that and the case of 1984 Topps Football I sold for 20 bucks a box. :D

Congrats! Reminds me of when I was buying nice McGwire rookies in 1992 (about a dozen, as I recall, each purchased separately and selected for sharp corners and centering) for $10-$15, and selling them at the '98 National for $60-$80. It was amazing how many dealers had signs posted that they were buying McGwire.

Happy collecting,

Larry

Each year there are 25 or more highly rated prospects. You read about them and it sounds like they are all practically in the HOF. My guess is more people are losing at the speculation game than winning.

Oh thats nothing...I remember the time I bought up like 27 bernie williams rookies...and maybe 10 gerald williams rookies...and a few dozen pedro martinez rookies...and...oh wait!

agree with peter
 

the new stuff is like going to a casino .the minute it arrives sell .well the following week a new product is out and that ends that .I got lucky with LeBron chromes topps 2003 and I was told to buy judge ,,who knew ,,.now watch him get hurt.i have 35 psa 10 lebrons not for sale ..got them cheap and then graded them ..but I wont tell you about jj hardy rookies lol

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many! :eek:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5

2003 chrome lebron s
 

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please

You certainly have a pile, and no doubt you will make a pile of money some day, but if I were to guess, there were far fewer of those Lebron's around than there were Judge's?
http://www.beckett.com/news/aaron-ju...vin@rogers.com

Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio

All is well, Octavio, thanks for asking.

Hope all is well with you as well.

E-mail/address sent.

If I was sitting on a bunch of LeBrons I would sell some, I don't see there being a whole lot of upside left.

[QUOTE=irv;1671252]I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many! :eek:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5[/QUOTE


They are ALL his rookie plus the 125 that haven't been released yet in 2017. Not to mention the eight different color refractors and prisms and five different color ink autographs.

If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.

But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.

Hi Peter I'm going to take your advice I got offered insane amount for all but declined hope he goes to the lakers lol

If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.

Packs,

That is a really astute and interesting observation regarding PreWar back premiums and the analogy to some of today's variations.

What some miss is that not all modern collecting is for value and resale, to be dumped/sold when there is a profit to be taken, or to be hidden in shame if value dips. Just as with PreWar and vintage, collectors can collect because we are really into the player. That is, after all, what collecting is supposed to be about.

For example, when I was a kid, I bought and loved Mattingly, Strawberry, Gooden, etc. I bought and collected and loved having those cards not because they went up or down in value in a Beckett or CCP guide, but because they were "my guys," who I rooted for with heart. When I would wake up in the morning, I would check the box scores to see how my favorite guys did. I own those same cards today, and thoroughly enjoy having them in my collection— despite the fact that they are not worth thousands and the players did not make the Hall of Fame.

Funny thing is, as a much older 'kid' now, I do the same exact thing. I've bought both the expensive and non-expensive cards of my current favorites like Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Montgomery, Severino, etc., with the endeavor being to 'Collect'em all' as the hobby saying goes. Does that play into the companies printing variations? Sure. No different than collecting in the 80s played into me wanting an 86 Sportflic of Mattingly or the 84FU Gooden. And the fun and enjoyment is there from collecting a player you like, whether he becomes a HOFer or not, and whether the cards become worth money, or worth nothing.

In my modern splurging lately, I've learned that today we can have many officially designated RC's with the RC logo, and then there is usually a player's earlier Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto card.

Much as there is debate among PreWar collectors over what card is so-and-so's rookie card, the same dialogue exists in the modern realm. Some guys view the Bowman Chrome as a rookie, others view it as a Minor League RC or something akin to an XRC. Some like only cards with the official RC logo for their rookies. And then there are guys who want to collect all the cards of their player.

Similarly, back in '84, there were guys who were satisfied with Darryl Strawberry's 84T. Others felt their collections needed to add the expensive 83T. Still others felt a need to add the Donruss and Fleer 84 issues. I remember encountering the 1985T #1 Draft Pick card of Strawberry, or the 1986T Gooden Record Breaker or the 1986 Fleer 'in action' cards, and I wanted to add them. The same way I see the 1960 style Archives Judge Auto and the 1983 style auto and want to add them to my others. Player collecting, especially of stars, has a long history of leading collectors down a dizzying path— just look at all the cards in a Mickey Mantle Master Set, LOL.

Ultimately, as always, it comes down to, "Collect what and who we like." If someone wants to pay a handsome premium for a Gold Refractor of Gleyber Torres or a Superfactor of Judge or a Lenox Back of a T206 non HOFer or a Pancho Herrer or a centered card that is usually found OC, they should go for it. If a collector buys what he wants and he's happy adding to his collection, it's never stupid or insane; it's always a good choice— because life is way too short and we can't take the cash with us.

What I find confusing about the modern RC designations is that nobody seems to question, for example, that the 1992 Bowman of Mariano Rivera is his RC, even though it depicts him in street clothes and was issued 3 years before he put on a major league uniform. Or the 85 McGwire on Team USA. But many of the same people would say that the Team USA issues of Kershaw, Harper, and others are not RCs, and the apparent rationale is that they were issued before they appeared in the majors. I am sure there is an answer but I don't get it.

And Matt, yeah of course ultimately collect what you like, but debates about value are also an "inheritant" part of the hobby.

This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.

If all that has been said in the thread didn't help you to understand, then I am at a loss on how to explain it further to you.

No disrespect. I'm just not good at explaining things I guess so I will leave that to other's who are.

There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.