I am that way about Dale Murphy ,who was my favorite player as a kid, but deep in my heart, I know his career fell off too quickly to be a HOF player.

Not much room between Murphy and Rice though, and this from a Boston guy.

true, which is why Rice was #1 on my list of guys who shouldn't be in (of the modern era, lots of veteran committee guys got in that were suspect)

If Murphy doesn't get that knee infection and can stay healthy for 5 years, he's a 500 homer candidate and an easy choice. But man...... he just didn't make it.

If they wanted to put Murph in tho, I'm not going to second guess em! :-P

Perez and Cepeda seem in a similar niche, without studying their stats.

When I compared the careers of Jim Rice, and Dwight Evans, let's just say my eyebrow raised.

Both played in the outfield for the Red Sox, Evans in right, Rice in left. Both played together for almost the entirety of their careers. Evans came up in '72, Rice in '74. Evans played in Boston until 1991, when he was a free agent picked up by Baltimore. He played 19 years at Fenway, putting up 2,505 games as a member of the Red Sox. Rice retired after the 1989 season. That's sixteen years out there together. Every opening day of Jim Rice's career, Evans was there, too.

I get that Rice had some massive seasons early on in his career. So did Freddy Lynn, who was in center '74 to '80. But between '77 and '79, Rice was ridiculous with the bat; his average output for those three years: 114 runs, 207 hits, 31 doubles, 12 triples, 41 home runs, 128 RBI, a .320 AVG, and a slash line of .376/.596/.972. Those are real averages, not adjusted to 162 games. He only missed six games those three seasons. He led the league in total bases all three seasons. But that was really his peak. He had some othre really good seasons, and one other great season (1983; .305 AVG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, leading in the last two metrics. His 344 total bases led the league, too, and he slashed .361/.550/.911). In 1984, he hit only .280, but hit 28 home runs, and drove in 122. In 1986, he hit .324, driving in 110, but only hit 20 home runs.

But Rice was a below average defender, and by WAR, his career total of 47.4 just doesn't add up.

Now, Evans didn't have the huge seasons early in his career. From 1972 to 1980, his 162 game averages were not at all impressive: .262 AVG, 20 home runs, 68 RBI, and a .792 OPS. But Evans is the rare player who truly came into his own after age 30. 1981 was his breakout offensive season; he led the American League with 22 home runs, hit .296, and 85 walks, 215 total bases and a .937 OPS all led the league. For the first time, he received MVP votes, finishing third in the league. From 1981 to 1989, his 162 game averages spiked considerably; he hit .281, averaging 109 runs scored, 30 home runs, 104 RBI, and 106 walks versus 114 strikeouts. And, unlike Rice, he was a highly regarded defender. Evans won a total of eight Gold Gloves in his career. And, his career WAR of 66.9 is 19.5 higher than Rice's career total.

So, why is Evans not in, and Rice is? I think, when it comes to baseball, voters rely heavily on reputation when handing out awards. Rice became one of the most feared hitters in the league early in his career. Evans was consistent, but not spectacular.

Evans played four years longer than Rice. But, because of Evans' walk rate, he had only 771 more at bats than Rice. So, there really isn't a great discrepancy in their home run frequency. Rice averaged a home run every 21.5 at bats (382 home runs in 8,225 at bats). Evans averaged a home run every 23.4 at bats (385 home runs in 8,996 at bats). And their career OPS + metric is nearly identical; 127 for Evans, 128 for Rice. And though Rice had a much higher career batting average (.298 vs .272 for Evans), he had a lower OBP. Rice walked 670 times in his career, and Evans walked 1,391 times. Rice's OBP of .352 pales in comparison to Evans' .370.

When we consider that these two players had equal power for their career, yet Evans got on base more, and was a vastly better fielder, it seems to me as if the Hall elected the wrong Red Sox outfielder. It took Rice fifteen years to get in. Evans, however, appeared on only three ballots. He fell off the ballot after getting only 3.6% of the vote in 1999.

As to my second and third choice, I'm still mulling it over.

Hodges is a tough sell for me. I love the Brooklyn Dodgers, and Gil was a great player. But Hall of Fame worthy? I just don't know. He's borderline, to me, at least. We're quick to drop Rice, but is Hodges more deserving? Gil had a career 45.0 WAR, and exactly three seasons of 5.0 or higher (5 being All Star caliber). And, even his best season by WAR, 1954, was only a 6.2.

He never finished in the top five of any MVP vote in 18 seasons (well, 15 seasons of 100 or more games). His career OPS + is 120, which is seven points lower than Dwight Evans, who is not in. He won three Gold Gloves. His defensive metrics are ok, nothing great.

Here's the main problem I have with Hodges. Besides his MVP finishes (three top ten finishes; 7th in 1957, 8th in 1950, and 10th in 1954) don't wow me. And, he never led the league in any meaningful category. Games played twice, strikeouts once. That's it.

Don't get me wrong, I've always liked Gil Hodges. I just think he was overshadowed by Duke Snider for a reason. Really, if you look at the stars of the Dodgers, he was the fourth best offensive player on the team, behind Robinson, Campanella and Snider.

Can somebody make a case for his induction, please? He hit a good deal of home runs; two 40 + seasons, four others of 30 +. He drove in a good deal of runs; from 1949 to 1955, he drove in 100 + each season.

But where does he stand out as an exceptional player?

This was a terrific analysis. Evans is one of a growing number of guys who had excellent careers and merit Hall talk but vanish from the ballot before dialogue can even happen.. Lofton and Edmonds come to mind as two recent examples.

Rice had an MVP and a few years where he was a dominant slugger. Evans was less spectacular, more consistent at putting up very good but not great numbers. I think that made the difference.

I'm in the camp that says Evans is at least as deserving as Rice, if not more so. If you say Evans is close but doesn't belong, that's fine, but then neither does Rice.

Edmonds was linked to juicing (and his highest WAR total coming at age 34 doesn't help his case very much, that looks suspicious)

Lofton..... IDK why he was ignored.He was the premium lead off man of his era and a fine fielder

Glad to see you take a look at those two!

There's a few things that fall into the "can't put numbers to it" category, and a few personal observations from going to a lot of games from 77- 82 (When you could walk up to the ticket window and buy what are now upper box seats as grandstand seats for a few dollars)

First the observations on each, if you saw them play then it'll sound familiar.
Rices HRs were usually amazing, ones I'd figure as almost demoralizing to the other team. I've never seen a ball get out of the park so fast, and many were well over the net in left. One he hit in I think 75 was supposedly one of only 3-4 to leave the park completely to the right of the flagpole. And the guys who hit the others was some pretty good company (I think...Mantle, Foxx, and one other. ) On the downside, he was treated somewhat poorly by the press, and didn't help himself there at all. Later in his career, there was something written about him needing glasses. He eventually got them, but picked a pretty awful style. And then took a lot of kidding about it to the point he stopped wearing them. His performance with glasses was much better, no big surprise.
He did lead the league 4 straight years in grounding into double plays and was often in the top 10, one knock against him that is accurate.
He wasn't really that bad of a fielder. 11 years in the top 10 for LF assists, and led twice in LF doubleplays and once in Fielding pct. for LF Of course like any left fielder in Fenway the assists and doubleplays are somewhat easier. And no matter how good you come across in stats, when it goes wrong .......Yikes.
The year he retired was in a stretch where the "old" players were being treated very poorly by the management. Not even an opportunity to retire gracefully, just an announcement that they weren't being invited to spring training. And the date of the "special day" to Honor them, always a late season game against a poor gate draw. Rice basically checked out after that, his last game was August 3rd. The Sox currently say "formally retired" August 6, while Baseball reference says released Nov 13. Any way you look at it, it was an UGLY split. He didn't come back for Jim Rice day, which was also Bob Stanley day. (Stanley was there, and knifed one last beach ball :D ) How much his injuries affected him at the time is hard to say. His performance was poor for sure, but his replacement at DH Sam Horn ended up with an identically miserable WAR and displayed no power at all.


Evans got the same poor treatment the next year but opted to become a free agent. Being fairly close to 400HR probably was part of that. Health issues really prevented him from continuing. Usually back spasms, which back then I always thought "really?! Back spasms? Then I got into my late 40's and had a couple.....And totally understood.

He was a really amazing fielder. Right in Fenway is a bit easier than left, but only a bit. And he played it very well. What really set him apart was the arm. The only comparable player I've seen is Ichiro. There's no stat for how often guys hit a single that might stretch to a double and decided not to because of who the fielder was. Which is too bad because he'd probably be among the leaders. Led three times in RF assists, and three times in RF double plays, but that really doesn't tell the whole story.

He was only on the HOF ballot 3 years, getting 5.9% 10.4 % and 3.6 % that last year was the one that made me really question how the HOF elections work. Because there's a reason he only got 3.6 and was off the ballot. Or more accurately, several reasons.
Nolan Ryan 1st year 98.8%
George Brett 1 st year 98.2%
Robin Yount 1st year 77.5%
Carlton Fisk 1st year 66.4%
Plus 5 other eventual HOF ers ahead of him. There simply weren't enough votes to go around to keep a good fielder or even a great fielder on the ballot. I've felt since then that the 5% cutoff should be adjusted when there's a particularly strong group in its first year.


Steve B

My memories of Rice will first and foremost be grounding into a double play to kill a rally.

the writers have been screaming for a "yes/no" ballot for years to avoid the problem of logjams hurting deserving players who can't get votes because the limit on how many can be voted for in any given year. (which is the main reason nobody has been unanimous,a writer will leave off a guy they know is first ballot hoping their vote for a guy like Trammel will help him stay on the ballot another year.)

He was really good at that. Currently 7th all time, tied with Eddie Murray.

I prefer to remember the homers. The announcers calls not so much since they seldom got enough time. "Here's the pitch, a swing homerun Jim Rice! " Some of them were just that quick.

The rest of the top 7 grounding into doubleplays is a pretty good group.
Cal Ripken, 350
Ivan Rodriguez 337
Hank Aaron 328
Albert Pujols 324 and counting (If I had the time, I'd have a move over hank here comes Albert shirt - Bonus if anyone gets what that refers to -should be easy)
Yaz 323
Dave Winfield 319
Murray and Rice at 315.
Julio Franco 312

And that's all over 300.


Steve B

I bet most or all those guys had a lot more ABs than Rice. And I could swear I saw all 315 LOL.

Yep, and it's one of those law of large numbers things. You have to be a good player to stick around long enough to earn a dubious record like double plays, pitcher walks or batter K's. You rarely see bad players earning negative career records.

My three are:

Roger Maris
Tony Oliva
Minnie Minoso

My three are:

Gil Hodges
Don Newcombe
Roger Maris

Top 3
 

#1 - Bo Jackson Football HOF
#2 - Roger Maris
#3 - Bo Jackson Baseball HOF

My 3 are..

Dave Parker
Dale Murphy
Al Oliver

Tony Oliva
Dick Allen
Vada Pinson

Minnie Minoso
Luis Tiant
Albert Belle (betcha won't be many votes for him)

Steve Garvey
Ken Boyer
Gil Hodges

I'll only list guys that I saw play

Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly

Hodges
Schilling
Morris

Jim Edmonds,Fred Mcgriff and David Justice. Loved those guys growing up!

These two
 

Roger Maris and Bo Jackson - were these two not famous?

Updating after HOF election
Trammell
Whitaker
Schilling

Roger Maris

Dean Chance

Carl Furillo

Maury Wills

Minnie Minoso

Bill Pierce

Allie Reynolds

Ed Lopat

Tom Tresh

Mel Stottlemyre

Frank Howard

Tommy John

I realize a dozen is not three, but I could go on and on.... oh yes, Billy Martin! Sometimes I really like someone for just a single season, or, in the case of Mr. Martin, his performance in the 1952-53 World Series. It isn't always a career that moves me.:) ---Brian Powell

I prefer to stay out of the 'who should be in' debates so approaching this from a collector/investment standpoint. If I was going to collect cards of a non-HOF player who are the ones I would feel most confident of them holding their value or increasing in value even if they never were enshrined. The post-war players that I would put at the top of my list are:

Gil Hodges
Roger Maris
Thurman Munson
Bo Jackson

Mattingly
Maris
Albert Belle

Fred McGriff
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds

I really don't get all the love for Roger Maris. If you take his first 2 years as a Yankee out of the equation he is average at best. He has a .260 lifetime BA and he hit close to 40% of his career home runs in those 2 years.

Garvey - Mr. Clean (or Popeye as my Dad called him due to his massive forearms) was my childhood baseball hero - Go Dodgers!

Munson - leader and general badass. He was not a fan of Reggie Jackson, which made the enemy of my enemy my friend.

I don't have a third but if I had to add one he would be anyone from the best infield that ever was: Lopes, Russell, or Cey.

Jack Morris, Trammel and Mattingly.

Z

Munson
Mattingly
O'Doul


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I love this thread, because it is mainly based on actual observations of players we saw in action every day and not so much dependent on ancient career stats numbers.

1. Anyone who grew up in the 70'/80's saw Steve Garvey as a huge star. When any of us New Yorkers thought about facing the Dodgers, Garvey was the man.

2. He got hurt and that's what screwed him, but Don Mattingly was an absolute force for a bunch of years until he had no choice but to hang up his cleats.

3. Thurman Munson was the bare knuckled heart of the Yankees as they regained their place at the summit of the American League.

Fred McGriff
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly

Steve Garvey
Don Mattingly
Eric Davis

Murphy and Mattingly here as well. A half decade of being pretty much the main offensive force in your league does it for me.

When considering a player I ask, "Could we tell the story of baseball in this player's time without mentioning him?"

In the case of Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly, I don't think one could discuss 1980's baseball without mentioning these two studs.

Alan Trammell
Gil Hodges
Ted Simmons

It's a travesty that Simmons dropped off so quickly. Yes, he was average defensively but the guy could hit. Put him up against any catcher of that era outside of Bench.

So many slippery slopes with common sense criteria. This rationale for Ted Simmons (though Fisk fans may differ) would make Concepcion a shoo-in. Probably Bill Freehan too for the 60s.

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Thurman Munson, Gil Hodges, Benny Agbayani

Maris, Mattingly and
 

Vada Pinson

Gil Hodges, Bobby Grich, Jim Kaat

But you can't take Maris's first two seasons with the Yankees out of the equation; they happened. I don't think he has career HOF numbers, but I think he is kind of a special case. He endured a lot of bullshit during that '61 season, which I personally think affected the remainder of his career. Anyone who saw Maris play will swear he was an incredible all-around player.

The Maris discussion brings back memories to when 61 HRs seemed like a lot!

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My guys.

Great thread.