What the future holds in the autograph industry
 

Well, with all of these issues with forgers and TPA's certifying forgeries, I'm really at a cross-road with what to do about my collection. I know most of all of my autographs are authentic, not based off the flip but based off the experts on this board and in doing my own research.

Obviously, few questions pop up in my mind like, 'what is going to be the future of the autograph industry?' Am I still going to be able to enjoy this before shit hits the fan (if it already hasn't)? Will my cards still maintain a premium value? Every one of my cards has gone up in price, but with what is happening with all the forgeries, can they maintain that? Most of my collection is compromised of players whom no one would waste time in forging, but when I want to expand to collect a signed Ruth Goudey, or others, can I trust them?

I'm in no dire need of money to have a fire sale, I just would love to have an open discussion on what your opinions and views are on this, because I honestly don't know which way to lean, and all this crap happening truly scares me for being in the hobby I love so much.

The hobby might evolve into more collectors collecting autographs on things that are most likely real ie...legal documents, handwritten letters with solid provenance, checks (most would be good) etc.....

For me, that is the only way I would collect them. Good discussion question.

I was thinking of putting this on the main board, but I agree. My passion is with the card unfortunately, but like you said, that is probably the 'safest' route.

Also, there are players other than Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb to collect. Lesser players, non-baseball people, can be just as fun to collect.

I know, but as my collection expands, then I get into the higher class players. I strictly only go after HOF Autographed 'rookie cards', and Joe Mauer. But even with the other guys, still can easily have forgeries.

Autographs will always be there and will always be in demand, especially since many collectors/fans consider them a way to get "closer to the game" and the players. I think in the future, people will insist on a TPA for the more expensive autos, even more so than now. I realize that even the TPAs mess up, so collectors will probably try to educate themselves as much as possible. Probably the going phrase will be "Buy the auto, not the LOA."

I totally agree.Thats what I collect.I have a limited budget,so I go for lower price HOFers and lesser known players.I also do alot of TTM's.Mostly guys that are retired.This is my hobby,and I enjoy it.

yes, step away from HoS and the hysteria. there's no indictment forthcoming on how rea/jsa/psa is colluding (LOL). if CC is still in business then the fbi has better things to do.

if you're not comfortable with an auto, don't buy it! the enjoyment from my collection and hobby doesn't rise and wane with the increase/decrease in value. i'm just as happy holding a signed '89 gregg jefferies as a ty cobb check.

This will all pass. Take a step back, don't read any autograph related websites for a little and you will feel better.

You like what you collect and you enjoy your collection. The negative feels are coming from outside sources. Tune them out and you will be fine.

What's currently going on with HoS and many threads on this forum is similar to listening to Glen Beck. Listen long enough and you will believe the sky is falling. Turn him off for a little and you will realize the sky never fell nor is it about to.

Not saying there isn't a problem in the hobby. There most certainly is. But it isn't your problem. If you want to fight the good fight like many on this board are doing, more power to you. But if all it does is lead you to leave the hobby then you may want to reconsider.

When you wade into the deep end of the pool, the risks increase exponentially.

I don't have a deep end of the pool budget, so I keep myself satisfied with my Mantles and Koufax's and a Ty Cobb check and a Maris plus my Mariano Rivera collection. I do my homework and network with knowledgeable collectors and dealers. I have a high level of confidence my stuff is good.

Collect what you like and what you are comfortable with and you'll be just fine.

:)

I Would sell it now before the COA's from TPA's become just TP.

:p;)

One of the nice things about collecting signed T206s is that most of what is out there was signed by non-HOFers, and can be traced through provenance to two major collections that were amassed in the 1960s and 70s. Like I said on the Babe Ruth train wreck thread (version 1), if the forgers were winning, you'd see at least one authenticated Matty signed T206, and way more Cobbs than are out there.

Collect what you like, and be prepared to defend the signature in the event you or your heirs try to sell in the post-Spence/DNA era, which will eventually come -- sooner or later.

Genuine autographs will always be genuine, no matter what happens to the TPA that attached a letter to it.

Yet there are plenty of bad postcards, balls, and photos. I'm pretty sure the potential profit margin, as well as overall demand and saleability, on a generic Christmas card exceeds that of a signed T206. Especially if there are few (or no) known examples, making it harder to slip through the cracks. That being said, don't count out the prospect of one showing up. If there is a money to be made, they will build it.

I started a thread about a week ago of a cache of autographs I had run across. The number of bad 'common' players was unnerving. Ask yourself this: Who would forge Terry Francona, John Kruk, or Larry Bowa? How about John Daly or Eric Lindros? If they are fair game, all bets are off on anyone.

While I don't accept the lack of accountability of the TPA's, at this point they definitely serve as a much needed filter. Despite the protestations of some to the contrary, they get it right most of the time. At least in baseball.

I haven't heard anyone say that the TPA's get it wrong most of the time. The complaint is that getting it right "most of the time" is not good enough. If "most of the time" is good enough for you, you are definitely in the majority, so I'm not knocking you. Just saying - I'd like to see them do better, and I'm sure they could.

II think that if no one listens to people on this thread You are missing a lot. If you allow yourself to be told that only a certain people can tell what is authentic or not is beyond crap.
You guys listend to Barry Halper for how many years and look what he did to you. You believed in Mastro and look how he lied to you. How much money do you think he swindled people out of . I did the same dame thing and it was easy because someone belived a forensic expert You had the whole East Coast Fogery ring that sold so much more than we did They came close to making more money on a weekend than the west coast people did in a year. Cets from B& J , Madison and Howards. It took a guy like Kenny to sue them to stop them.
When this hobby started if had 2 Ruths in an auction that was a big deal. To even see a Christy Mathewson was und heard of. Know how many pure white balls to you see how many Mathewsons, Cobbs, The list goes on and on and on. There was e even a player who had no know autograph . That was autghentic.
The forgers get better and better and once they fool the authenticator its all over ,you authentic one it never stops .If you dont do your own research and listen to people that do not have a vested interest just watch happens. These few gods will walk away with you money and wont think a thing about it
Not only the forgers win but so do the TPA's it becomes there world is all about the money and you can believe me with out each other they all fold up.
If you cant trust someone who has been on the side none of you want be to on. Then fifty years of dealing with the worst and dealing the best has taught me a lot. On that Rea thread I said the one thing I learned quickly was be very leert. Listen to your heart and you head. Rread the stories and make up your own mind. Most importand before I would spend on red cent ask questions and then ask more. If the story starts to change walk far far away. Last but not least dont ever listen to somone that is only trying to make you angry or made. Se what he has done in hobby and who has any respect for him.


Spelling suck grammr worse but you guys no that.

As they said in NYPD Blue. Be careful our there

A re write will be up in the morning.

+1

I've never collected autographs, and never had much of an interest in them. But I do read most of the autograph threads on this board. I imagine people will continue collecting autographs, and would guess that those collectors will enjoy what they are doing. That said, I've never seen a more depressing hobby or state of affairs than what transpires on Net54.

The amount of infighting among collectors and dealers is a little hard to believe. It seems like you guys really don't like each other. And the number of collectors who get ripped off buying bad stuff is truly alarming. This end of the hobby has a simply dreadful image. It looks like the place all the scammers and con men go to make a living.

If you want to see a healthy future, something has to be done. If it reaches the point where nobody can agree on whether or not a Babe Ruth signature is good or bad, then I would say the future does not look all that bright. The number of new collectors entering will grow smaller.

This got me thinking...
 

A lot of good points. But a post really got me thinking from the Gary Cooper thread:

And I can see this being true, and it's disgusting...

Brent, I'm missing you and Dan's point. If there were no forgers, everything would be authentic, so of course you wouldn't need anyone (TPA) to identify something as being a forgery. And since TPA's are businesses, they have to make money. To me it's all about how they run their business. Even if you assume they are completely honest, they aren't doing the job we are paying them to do.

I spoke with Ben yesterday and gave him a detailed example from my personal experience, where I am absolutely positive that a TPA authenticated forgeries, and when I asked them to take a second look they said they did, but they absolutely did not. Why? Because the time it would take to actually examine the autographs would kill their profit. That's what I find disgusting, and that's why their LOA's are absolutely worthless to me.

Barry - good post. I apologize for my part in the mess you describe - I'm quite upset at myself for some of the stuff I've written in the various Ruth threads. If the autograph forum were not part of Net54 I would not be a participant at all;still, I promise in the future to try my best to fight my natural inclinations to react to it, which only compounds the problem.

The other problem is that I have never been able to resist reading it - it's really quite fun. And I have met some very good and interesting people there.

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

Fitting because it sounds like the Steroid Era of baseball to me... Not thinking about the long term hit to their character when the truth comes out, only that they were the big thing when they played.

Gotcha - thanks. I know TPA's holder trimmed cards, and based on what others (with better eyeballs than me) have said, if accidental it's through employee ineptitude, and if an experienced employee did it, it's criminal. But I don't agree with you that the TPA's intentionally holder high-$ forged autographs. I believe it's simply ineptitude.

edited to add - the above is in regard to PSA and JSA - certainly many of the other TPA's are fraudulent.

I agree, it's certainly not as common, and ISA and all the other crap slab reprints. I guess I miss-spoke saying intentionally certify, but it just seems like it with how many Ruth's have been withdrawn for HA

I believe the future of the hobby depends on what you're in it for. If you're looking for your own personal collection to keep and enjoy, you're probably going to be looking to purchase from the well known dealers (Stinson, Simon, Corcoran, Keating, etc etc) and you'll be happy knowing that you have a high probability of having authentic autographs that you didn't have to see signed. If, however, you're looking to be able to flip an autograph and want the average Joe to feel comfortable buying your "product" at a higher price, then you'll probably look for the alphabet authenticators and you'll be less likely to have an authentic autograph (not all, but more will fall through the cracks due to high volume, lack of knowledge/exemplars and negligence).
For me, the future is going back to the beginning. I started out collecting hof balls and having hof'ers signed my hof book. I branched out to famous teams and famous players and deceased hof'ers, but I'm finishing up a lot of those projects and feel with the state of the hobby that I'll be going back to getting signed balls of living hof'ers. I have a backlog of players to get over the last few years and of course there's always new ones each year, so it will still be fun.
While a lot of these threads have been going on the last several days, I was reminded how much fun this hobby is by two events. The first was that I started working on getting a lot of my stuff matted and framed (about 12 new ones done so far and another 10 or so in que for the next week or so...by the way, get yourself a good frame shop that can do your matting and then wait for some good sales at any chain frame shop and you can get a lot of your stuff up on the walls, looking good, for pretty cheap). The actual process of getting your stuff matted/framed and deciding what would look good together as displayed is so enjoyable, and of course sitting back and looking at the result is priceless.
The second thing was an unsilicited copy of the SCD that showed up in the mail (3 years after discontinuing my subscription, I guess they want me back). Anyway, the magazine is smaller in size but thicker than in recent years which reminded me of the 80's when it was the size of the old Sporting News and about an inch think. Man those days were fun...getting the new issue on a Thursday and spending the next several hours looking for things for your collection. A lot of old hof'ers that would sign at shows that you could mail order (some didn't seem to come out to the West Coast so that was really cool). Fun days indeed.
Anyway, I've blathered long enough, but before I go, I have a Babe Ruth for sale...:eek::D:eek:

A lot of people do believe that the slabbing is malicious, and with the TPA's refusing to address their image problem (although I doubt they see it as a problem), believing it is intentional is reasonable. All the TPA's have to do is state that it's ineptitude and that they will try to hire better authenticators.

I was digging around, looking for an example of a particular Babe Ruth style signature, and found this site. Others have probably already discussed it:

http://www.angelfire.com/biz5/puru777/ruthpiece.htm

I do a majority of my purchases on the bay, but I always research first or ask for opinions. I'm not in it for the money, just strictly collecting, and at times I may sell to upgrade etc. I do a lot of trading/buying/selling with collectors here which I highly prefer over over avenues.

I mainly do cards, but have a couple of really cool pieces I have framed. Back in the '80's, Donruss inserted puzzle pieces into packs of cards. I completed all of the puzzles from the players (like Musial, Spahn, Snider, Stargell etc.) and glued them to a mat and got them signed and framed, so they look pretty cool.

Is it on a card :cool:

Well said, Scott. I wish there could be more interaction with the graders when you submit, like getting a reason for the grade or pass/fail (I understand it would cost more). I have submitted a card to get numerically graded, and thought it came half a grade or two grades less than what it should have, and I called and had them re-look it (no bump :() and the customer service rep explained to me what they told her and put a sticky note on the slab with an arrow pointing to the issue.

I feel like reasoning behind the madness would help out so much more with many of these issues.

But I really do appreciate everyone's posts and thoughts so far, it's very insightful in helping me with my decision.

Brent, I too loved those puzzles as well as those HOF Heroes cards from Donruss. Great things to have signed.

Not only the forgers win but so do the TPA's it becomes there world is all about the money and you can believe me with out each other they all fold up. I said that on the other page.
The next thing is if you start to believe the feel good stories that are poping all over the place with no real back ground but the consigner says. You will also be in for a world of hurt. I
I don't mind being ignored I do mind my ideas being steped on.:D

I loved those, but don't think I've seen any signed. Got photos?

I think this is why people dont learn or care to learn anything.
What does this have to do with the subject.
This is a perfect way of showing your concern. :mad:

I was thinking more along the lines of the symbiotic relationship they have...how hard do they really want to rid the hobby of forgery since they basically make their living off of it. It makes me ponder the secretive nature of this business.... I don't believe that JSA or PSA intentionally holder bad autos though. Obviously there are TPA's that are the go to guys for the forgers and these autos usually end up at CC or in your local "estate" auction.

Please don't yell at me for going off-topic, but all this discussion of bad autographs, blind collectors and unscrupulous TPA's and forgers made me think of this:

http://www.shore11.org/files/u16/lemmings_off_cliff.jpg

No on is saying on purpose. I am saying once a forger can get them to authenticate his items they are his for life. There are people on here that no the story of he miniture autograh Rurth balls. That well know authenticator has been chaseing those ball to be the authenticator to protect himself. People like Richard, Jim, Ron and few others laugh when we see it happen. It is hard to go back and admit a mistake. I think the difference between the go to guys is price. Garbage is Garbage.

I know I'm having a great time looking for pieces that I like. JSA and PSA don't hinder me from doing that. I couldn't care less about the "future" as I am only interested in the past.

As someone who does not really collect autographs, I tend to agree with what Barry has stated. I have strayed from the memorabilia threads recently and have already voiced my opinion on the amount of infighting, personal attacks and typical lack of real evidence (a few exceptions) that have characterized most of the latest Ruth-related threads. This contrasts with the much more civil and educational content of many of the threads (mostly vintage photos) that I previously participated in.

Whereas I, and I assume many of you, would love to have an authentic Ruth autograph in my/your collection, that will simply never be the case for me because I would never be certain it was authentic. I take Jim's warning concerning the abilities of the master forgers very seriously.

It seems to me that the only way to avoid the subjectiveness and human error associated with the determination of authenticity both for collectors and TPG companies (here I'm primarily talking about ball players that are deceased and played in the early decades of the 1900's) is some type of "scientific" analysis.

For example, with all of the tools now available it would seem to me that testing for the relative age (degradation) of the item signed (paper, photo, ball) and comparison with similar properties of the writing medium (ink) should be able to unequivocally determine if the auto was put down much later than the item signed. I would assume that forensic departments in the FBI/CIA may already have and applied this type of technology - so it may already be available.

Whatever that technology is/ will be, the main point is that some reliable method of quantitatively testing (non-invasive) the appropriate parameters seems to me the only way that one can avoid the totally subjective nature and shortcomings inherent in all authentication paradigms.

I agree Shelly, I was just addressing something that was brought up in this thread that I wrote in another thread. Don't want people to misunderstand my words.

They may be indirectly hindering you. Jim S has said that he thinks forgers are getting better and better, to the point that they can create forgeries that are indistinguishable from the real deal. If their quality has at least improved a great deal, that may be because the legitimate TPA's (JSA and PSA) forced them to get better.

I don't know for sure, as I wasn't collecting autographs back then, but to me it's reasonable to believe that before JSA and PSA, people HAD to buy from honest, good sellers, and/or if they were willing to study legitimate exemplars and become experts themselves (as opposed to blindly relying on TPA's and AH's), their chances of purchasing a real Ruth were much better than they are today, since the forgeries weren't as good. I hope that makes sense, but perhaps I'm completely incorrect.

Hello, that is what I have been trying to say. The are getting better than the authenticators. Once that happens your sunk. I think the advice of getting better equipment and doing data testing might help. If they keep on doing like they are there percentage of real vs fake will drop below fifty percent. When that happens you can flip and coin and save yourself a lot of money.

I think it's worse than that, and it's the crux of why we have so many fights on this forum - it's true that forgers are passing a very high % of bad Ruths and Gehrigs (etc.) right by the two legitimate TPA's, but what's worse is that when we bring these up for discussion on this forum, where we have experts who are better than those that the TPA's use, some of our guys give the bad autographs the green light :( And because of the massive egos, disagreement=fight.

Take that '700 HR' Ruth ticket - many say it's good, many say it's not. But the same guy who started off by saying he's 100% positive it's bad, is the only expert (maybe there are two - also a non-board member?) here who thinks the green-ink '27 Yankees ball is good. It's really mind-boggling how much disagreement there is right here.

[QUOTE=Runscott;1126284]I think it's worse than that, and it's the crux of why we have so many fights on this forum - it's true that forgers are passing a very high % of bad Ruths and Gehrigs (etc.) right by the two legitimate TPA's, but what's worse is that when we bring these up for discussion on this forum, where we have experts who are better than those that the TPA's use, some of our guys give the bad autographs the green light :( And because of the massive egos, disagreement=fight.

Take that '700 HR' Ruth ticket - many say it's good, many say it's not. But the same guy who started off by saying he's 100% positive it's bad, is the only expert (maybe there are two - also a non-board member?) here who thinks the green-ink '27 Yankees ball is good. It's really mind-boggling how much disagreement there is right here.[/QUO

Right or wrong that was his opinion.
I like who the new authenticators. The consigner. The consigner motto"I am not in the business but I know its authentic trust me"

I think some type of forensic testing would be great to see, obviously non-invasive. But, with that the prices to get certification would sky-rocket.

If the item is worth it there are places that can do things at a resonable price. The good thing is as this testing is perfected the cheaper it will become. I only say this because look at DNA testing. 5 years ago it would cost a fortune and take for ever. Now for 99 you can get your results in a few days.
Even if this where to happen do you think for one second the auction houses would pay for it. Not a chance in hell.

[QUOTE=shelly;1126289]When someone says it's "100% bad" is that still an opinion?

That's probably true, but in the case of Ruth, Gehrig, etc. I believe it would be worth it if the forensic testing approached 100% accuracy. Moreover if any technology-based authentication became a standard for the Hobby and major auction houses, all the existing forgeries would eventually be identified as such.