Super Bowl - in-depth analysis
 

Here in Seattle, we've been analyzing the hell out of the upcoming super bowl. I hate to waste all that thinking, so here are my thoughts. What are yours?

I think Manning starts the game running and throwing 10-15 yard timing plays - non-Welker receivers in the slot. Seattle will be obvious: heavy on the line to contain the run-game and make Manning throw fast. Seattle also concentrates on holding up the receivers at the line. If the refs let them play, and Manning isn't perfect, Seattle edges them out. Unless Manning is completely flat, Denver still gets 5 scores (23 or 27 points).

Seattle needs a couple of game-changing plays (Harvin or Tate TD return, pick 6) because their offense never gets rolling. They get it, but Manning still gets one last chance, needing a touchdown and coming up short on the final drive.

I'm still not betting any money on this game.

Edited to add: If Lynch gets rolling, it's a blow-out.

That sounds about right.

The Denver lines looked great against the Patriots. Both offense and defense.
Manning wasn't under any real pressure all game, and there were a few big plays where the Denver line got right in on Brady.

If they do the same sort of thing against Seattle it will be a tough game to win.

I didn't realize until this weeks SI that Denver had lost almost as many starters as New England.

Steve B

I think you are right - it's all about how both lines perform for each team. When you have two smart quarterbacks who probably won't make any stupid throws, it's all about the lines allowing/stopping them from doing what they need to do. I think Seattle can stop the running game and put pressure on the Manning, both at the same time. I think Denver has to pick Lynch or Wilson, but can't negate both. And even if they stop one of them, you know Carroll's going to run the ball the entire game, so at some point things have to open up - you just have to keep Manning off the field so that your D stays fresh.

You might know this already - What Patriots coach had the best winning percentage before Bellichick?

Steve B

From a Niner perspective
 

I haven't watched much of the Broncos this year. I think they probably do have a very good O-line, but I also think Peyton makes all his O-lines look good because he always gets rid of the ball on time... and additionally is so good at spotting a blitz pre-snap and adjusting his protections, routes, etc. That said, Seattle (like the Niners) doesn't blitz that much, usually relying on good pressure from their front four, so we may not see many of those "Peyton burns the blitz" chances. I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support. The hit he put on Vernon Davis (a total physcical specimen in his own right) is the nastiest I've ever seen in person... and he's also the guy (all 240 lb) that caught Kaep from behind on his long run!! He may be my favorite Seahawk (when is he a free agent?????)... and even as a Niner fan, I really like and respect many of their players (Marshawn like a Frank Gore- the true football player, Russell Wilson- the perfect leader, Baldwin & Kearse- they just make plays, even Sherman- amazing athleticism and ball skills and a really smart guys who's probably more than quadrupled his current salary through endorsement by acting like a total a-hole... he will become the "I'm not a role model" of this generation).

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

After watching the Niners lose again in Seattle, I thought there was no way Seattle loses this Sunday. As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!:D)

Peyton is certainly the sentimental favorite, but I'm not sure why so many people are thinking that he'll "find a way to get something done". He hasn't really shown that so much in the past. He's great, but I don't think he has enough personal magic to win this one.

I love me some football also - surprised there is so little interest in the Super Bowl among vintage card collectors. I'm thinking 'sports fan' and 'card collector' aren't as closely associated as I thought they were, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Still not sure if I care who wins the game, but it should be a heckuva game.

Hey, I'm with you also Scott. After watching the Seahwks 3 times this year, I was totally convinced they'd break Peyton in half because he'd get stuck holding the ball while he receivers are being bumped off their quick/timed routes. That said, I do think Peyton and their O will probably be more effective than I'd given them credit for originally/right after NFC Champ game (not for any reason other than he's good), but for the other reasons I mention, think he could be in for a tough day... And I still think the Hawks take it.

Regardless, gonna be a great game for sure! Have fun watching up their in Seattle.

I just re-watched the AFC Championship game. What I'm seeing is that New England was doing almost nothing to hold up the receivers at the line. So they cover their men - Manning hits his back coming out of the backfield or has the slot timing pattern.

Wow, no takers on that question?

It's Pete Carroll.

Didn't see that but think I'd have gotten it eventually. He was fired with a winning record.

As a Pats fan, I hope you appreciate No Cal's contribution to your squad.. Julian Edelman (possibly my favorite current NFLer) graduated from my alma mater Woodside (RWC, CA)... and one Tom Brady was a mid-nineties legend, and former opponent of mine (known as Tommy Brady) from San Mateo.

While on topic, that little baddass Pedroia is also a No Cal-er

Are you sure? I can think of three Patriots coaches with more than Carroll's 26 wins; Bill Parcells, Raymond Berry (took them to the '84 SB), and Chuck Fairbanks (thought he coached those Plunkett/Grogan-led teams in 70's). Fairbanks might have been with the BOSTON Patriots, I don't know.

Since it's Super Bowl day I moved this from the correct, water cooler forum, to the front page so more folks will see it. I can barely tell you the teams playing but know I am in the minority. Have fun....

Geez Leon, do you live under a rock? 15 minutes can save you 15% on car insurance. :)

I think it's Bronco's and somebody......

But my wife and I are going to a Super Bowl get together at a friends house so I am sure I will eventually find out (and still not care)....We are bringing little smokies in BBQ sauce and beer. I will be stationed in the kitchen with the munchies :).....and beer..

Just some rambling thoughts....

I see Denver coming and running a no huddle early to keep Seattle from rotating their D-line.

The match up that will decide the game will be the Seattle O against the Denver D. Lynch needs to have a big game. Best defense against Manning is to keep him on the sideline.

Harvin could be a big factor too. Denver is vulnerable on the edge and running those fly sweeps with Harvin to get to the edge could pay big dividends.

As a long time Seahawks fan, I'm really excited for this game. Denver will be a tough opponent and has the talent to win. But I think Hawks pull it out.

GO HAWKS!!!

The weather is warmish here with low winds so it does favor Denver. But that Seattle defense looks tough to beat.

That's the spirit. Make the best of it with good food, friends and beer. Doesn't get any better than that. Have fun and call in to work with a sore throught tomorrow. :)

Best thing for the NFL is for Denver to win. Manning is the poster boy for what is right with football, Richard Sherman for what is wrong with football. I think the refs start enforcing the rules with the Seattle D backs and Manning has a good game. I also think the game is a coming out party for Monte Ball. Final score--Denver 38, Seattle 17.

I just don't see the hawks offense being able to move the ball very effectively in this game. Even if their defense gets stops I'm not seeing the good field position that they have been able to get off other teams after easy three and outs (which will not happen in this game). If Denver jumps out by a score or two early than Seattle will probably start ditching the run. Seattle has played mediocre on the road and I just don't see them pulling this one off. Denver 34 Seattle 24

Seattle hasn't moved the ball effectively in a long time, but they did score 23 in each of their last two games, against two very good defenses, and Wilson did not have a particularly good day either time. Also, S.F. got out to a 10-0 start, and Carroll kept after them with the run until he wore them down. I don't think Wilson passes any more than he usually does.

Agreed about Seattle on the road - they rely on their fans a lot.

The only in depth analysis needed is.... Denver will win! After the game we can watch Richard Sherman making a bigger joke then he did two weeks ago.

Keep in mind. Seattle has faced a top 6 defense 5 out of their last 7 games. SF twice, N.O. twice and Ariz. The other 2 games were against Rams and Giants. Those are not horrible defenses by any means. Denver's D is nowhere near the same league as the Niners or Ariz. Teams Seattle has played against 5 times this year. I'm hoping Seattle's offense can get going against Denver's D.

Seattle was 6-2 on the road this year. Not too shabby. I believe the Bronco's were also 6-2 on the road.

He's already done that with endorsements that resulted from the Andrews interview and the ones that followed it. Are you referring to additional endorsements, and possibly the game MVP award?

Scott, don't let Brock distract you. Sherman is one of the best defenders in the game and you know that, but he was a total d-bag during his last game. By announcing the Crabtree is mediocre, he proclaimed that he shutdown a mediocre receiver...that's not saying much. Anyway, we know how great both of these teams are and what a good game this should be. Sherman will have his hands full with D. Thomas? and it won't be so easy this time around. That being said, this game could go in a variety of ways and I think the biggest factor is how Denver's D does against Seattle's O. Let's be honest, Lynch is one of the best and he usually always gets his, but I think it will be on Wilson and whether or not he can make a few clutch throws and scramble a bit...this is what makes them so tough to defend. Wilson isn't a great QB, but he's a leader and makes plays when he needs to...let's see how he does on the big stage.

Seattle's D ended up being the best in the league, but Andrew Luck absolutely thrashed them earlier in the year, so we know they can be beat...we'll see though.

I won't be surprised one way or the other, but I'm a Manning fan and more than anything will be rooting for him. If Seattle plays the way they know how, they will be a monster to beat.

I could give a rat's butt about the game, although I do want to know the final score for one reason only. The Simpsons had a 2005 show in which they had the Broncos beating the Seahawks in the Super Bowl by a 19-14 score. So that is exactly what I'm rooting for and ANYTHING else will be a disappointment, including me being forced to watch it

I feel Wilson is underrated. Is he great?? Not right now, but he is the first QB in NFL history to have a passer rating over 100 in their first two seasons. Along with 26 TD's in each season. The same amount Peyton Manning had his first two seasons. I'm not saying Wilson is, or will be, Manning. But he is being overlooked in my opinion. He doesn't do anything flashy but he FINDS a way to win. This kid should only improve with time.

Mike, I have been watching the Sherman interview analyses for two weeks now. I haven't missed any of this. Yes, he was a D-bag during the interview. I doubt anyone would argue with that. Before that I was always impressed with his interviews, so this one had me scratching my head more than a Brock post. Erin Andrews' reaction really says it all.

But it's also important to note how Sherman handled it afterward. I watched all of the interviews, and I have an informed opinion of him that isn't much less than before this mess. I'm sure my opinion differs from that of many others. The only danger with his performance today will be if he is overconfident and overplays balls, resulting in long touchdowns - it could certainly happen.

Regarding the Colts game, that was one of only three all year where any team put up any meaningful numbers against Seattle, the Vikings were getting blown out (and still only scored 21), and Tampa Bay scored all their points early because (in my opinion) Seattle didn't take them seriously enough. No one else did much. I still think the Broncos get five scores.

A note on 'Omaha'. Re-watching the AFC Championship game yesterday, one of the announcers confidently stated that Manning uses the word to indicate to his team that the clock is running down and he has to snap it quick. The next three plays the clock was at over 10 seconds each time he said Omaha.

We watched 'Remember the Titans' last night, and guess what word the quarterback used at least once? Maybe Manning got it from that movie.

Based on wins he's a bit farther down, but by winning percentage it's

Bellichick 163-61 .728
Carroll 27-21 .562
Berry 48-39 .551
Meyer 18-15 .545
Fairbanks 46-39 .541
Holovak 52-46-9 .528
Parcells 32-32 .500
Erhardt 21-28 .428
Saban 7-12 .368
Mazur 9-21 .300
MacPherson 8-24 .250
Rush 5-16 .238
Bengston 1-4 .200
Rust 1-15 .062

To be fair to Parcells he inherited a truly awful team.

Miscelaneous semi related stuff

Mike Holovak was part of a sporting goods store that was on the corner of the turn into the back parking lot of my High school. Pretty neat place that carried pro level stuff for all four major sports.

Tom Yewcic who played for the Patriots and one game for the Tigers had a son who was in my class in school. And also a fantastic athlete.

And Joe Bellino had a coffee/donut shop about a mile away from school Just over the Arlington/Lexington town line.

Steve B

Wow, now we know why Rust never sleeps.

Go Seahawks
 

It is rare for me to watch the Super Bowl with any strong ties to the winner...
I typically hope for a close game and hope to get good numbers in my squares:p
But that's because the Seahawks, Saints and Dolphins are not usually playing!!

This time its all about cheering "my" team to victory.
I know the 12th man is real in Seattle, I've been there when you cannot speak to the person next to you and man, its fun to attend.
This time the yelling will be in my own living room, but maybe it will still work!

I think the Seahawks can win because they will be free to assign a linebacker to blitz or cover the short timing passes. They had to spy on Kaepernick last game and that took some of fhe flexibility from that great defense. It will be crucial to get Manning moving in the pocket as he is not as effective when he has to avoid the rush. He won't have wide open receivers to pass to either like he has recently against underwhelming defenses. When Talib went down for the Pats early in the AFC Championship game, they were toast.

And as always, the key to stopping a top QB is to not let him have the ball.
Beast Mode to keep the clock running and Wilson escaping pressure to keep the chains moving. Of course, the Broncos know this but these two guys are special football players. Not since Earl Campbell days have I seen a RB more fun to watch than Marshawn Lynch. That man refuses to be tackled easily. You bring him down and you have EARNED it!

I don't expect a lot of statisical success from the 'Hawks...just solid, well coached football to win the game.
Plus, I'll be "coaching" from the sidelines of my easy chair too, so we should be able to conquer this game.:D

Defense wins Championships!

You know your stuff, Scott and I feel you definitely know the Seahawks. I've been rooting for the Seahawks ever since last year (so bummed when they lost vs. the Falcons) and I think it just took me by surprise when he went off like that...most of those types of rants are in the past and don't happen as much, but I still like the Hawks as a team. Honestly, I'm not going to blame him for it as much as I originally thought because there was a lot of emotion and it is what it is.

I'm not sure about everyone else, but I'm getting really pumped up for this game! I'm very happy the weather shouldn't play a big factor in the game...could have been huge if it were snowing or really cold :( The Super Bowl is my favorite game of the year by far :D

Thanks Mike. There has been a lot of analysis of his behavior and most agreed that you just shouldn't interview a player that soon after a big play - there is a level of adrenaline and emotion from the 'battle' that non-football players probably can't understand. Maybe we don't really want to know what these guys are thinking when they are pumped up.

I like this idea a lot. If they are allowed to, they will make slightly early hits and disrupt some of the timing plays, and if the receivers get held up at the line, the linebackers will have even more influence. My understanding is that the refs calling this game have not called a lot of penalties this year.

From a simplistic point of view I think it will be very difficult for Seattle to win because their margin for error in my opinion is very very slim. Think about it, a run, run, pass mentality requires success on 4-5 consecutive series. The chances of that happening several times enabling Seattle to keep up with what has been Denver's prolific offense just seems less than probable. That said I would think a successful game plan involves establishing very early pressure on Manning (not rocket science here), maybe even take a first series late hit penalty if necessary. Perhaps even more importantly, Seattle must force a relatively weak armed Manning to make longer passes to the sidelines. Seattles corners need to take inside position to force Decker and Thomas to the outside. Seattle's linebackers must cover those inside routes and at times even drop their ends into coverage looking to clog the shorter routes. Thats a lot to ask and a lot that has to go right for Seattle to win. I see it close though as I think Seattle will accomplish a lot of things I mentioned. Final Denver 27 Seattle 25, if you waited and got Seattle +2.5 I think you'll be happy..

One side note, I attended the Knick v. Celtic game tuesday night at MSG and sat directly next to Richard Sherman. We were in adjoining boxes and he happened to sit down right against the low plexiglass divider between the boxes, I was on the other side. I spoke to him for a few minutes and was surprised at how big he was, he's not a 5-10 corner, he's at least 6-3. I told him it was 60-1 that he scores the first TD and he just laughed.

T206 Time
 

http://www.t206blog.com/wp-content/u...ver-strike.jpg
Because all threads need a T206 :D



Go Denver.

Living in Central Indiana and having watched Peyton Manning since his rookie year, I say he is a great QB against bad teams and only an average QB against good teams. This is because he is stuck in his routine and doesn't like to deviate.

In the rookie year of one of his receivers (Dallas Clark ?) the receiver made a reception and was about to get tackled. As he was getting tackled, he lateraled the ball to another receiver who ran the ball in for a TD. In the post game interview, the receiver was asked about the play and said he was excited about it BUT was told by Manning that that was never going to happen again. Guess what? There was never a lateral again.

Against bad teams, Manning can do things even when the defense knows what is coming. Against good teams, Manning struggles because THEY KNOW what is coming and can be ready for it.

In the second Super Bowl he played in, the Colts were behind late in the game and Manning had them on the move. However, becaue he stuck to what he usually does, Manning threw and interception and the game was pretty much over with.

After the game, the DB who intercepted the ball was asked about the play and he said that in that area of the field, the defense KNEW what plays Manning like to use and what receivers he liked to target. So for him to get the interception, all he had to do was use the proper technique and to not drop the ball when it came his way.

As far as Seattle and their QB goes, I think Wilson is just a caretaker. Something like Joe Flacco a few years ago. Just hand the ball off to Lynch, make the short, safe throws and rely on the defense to take care of business. If WIlson has to make plays and throw the ball a lot, the Seahawks are in trouble.

As far as "Omaha" goes, I think all it means is the play is set and to hike the ball on the snap count. In previous games, if Manning didn't say "Omaha" then it meant he was still changing things around. However, once he said "Omaha" then the ball was ALWAYS snapped.

As far as THIS game goes, the only prediction I am going to make is that if either QB is behind and has to make a game winning drive then I don't think they do it. Manning because he will stick to his regular routine and the Seattle defense will KNOW what is coming, depending on down and distance and where on the field they are. With Wilson, I think he will get the yips if it comes down to him having to throw the ball and not have Lynch doing the work.

David

I had to stop reading after you said he's average against good teams. Haha

Sorry to burst your bubble but it is the truth.

Again, living in Central Indiana, it was teh same story year after year. Manning and the Colts would have a great regular season record and put up a lot of points. The fans and the media would have high hopes going into the post season. Then the Colts would lose in the first round or get upset by a worse team and the excuses would be made as everybody got ready for the next season.

What is Manning's regular season record and winning percentage? What is his record and winning percentage in the post season?

I like Manning but I am sorry. His performances and his teams' performances in the post season say he is just an average QB against good teams.

Worse QB's with worse stats have done better than Manning in the psot season. For a guy who is so smart, who puts up such great stats and who has a great regular season winning percentage, when you consistently under perform and fail in the post season then you can't continue to say it is just bad luck.

David

Well, I sure hope Brock is right - if Denver doesn't start doing their share of scoring, I'll never hit my point total :confused:

Starting to wonder if there's any reason to watch the second half.

There goes all the in-depth analysis.

22-0!!! Beautiful!! Keep it going boys! Don't take your foot off the gas!

Brock,

A blog called the Forarm Shiver had these stats as of January 7, 2014.

Regular season against the AFC, Manning's teams are 133 - 63. That is a .679 winning percentage.

Regular season against NFC teams, Manning's teams are 43 - 21. That is a .672 winning percentage.

Post season, Manning's teams are 9 - 11. That is a .450 winning percentage.

Again, for a guy who is so smart and who has put up such outrageous numbers on offense, having, at best, a .500 winning percentage in the post season and getting dumped in the first round on more than one occasion means that Manning is no more than an average QB against good teams.

Part of the reason for this, imho, is because Manning is stuborn.

No matter what the down, distance or place on the field he is, Manning thinks doing things his way is the right way. This works against bad teams but not against good teams.

Manning thinks that laterals, reverses and flea flickers (gimmick plays) though legal are beneath him. That is why his teams hardly EVER run those plays. Whereas opposing teams have no problem using thiose plays against Manning's teams.

However, it is those EXACT plays that need to be called sometimes to get GOOD teams out of their mindset against him. Yet Manning wont call those plays and he loses because of it.

David

Sorry I can't take anything you say serious when you say peyton is just average.

David,

I think the real issue is he may think you're a closet Red Sox fan.

At worst he's picked the worst of times to have some of his most average performances.
Several of those teams he was on may not have made it to the PS were it not for him.

Couldn't have asked for a better 1st half if you're Seattle. Complete domination. And the ball to start the 2nd half........wow

Shocked just shocked

what an egg by denver in half one

This game so far re-affirms a few beliefs of mine-
-- football is still football, not fantasy football (and Russell Wilson, Baldwin/Kearse and Co, though not fantasy darlings are true football players/play makers).
-- a great defense (like truly great pitching) is the best equalizer (and Kam Chancellor and those like him make the men on the other side of the ball look like boys).
-- the two best teams in the league played two weeks ago in Seattle

... still a half to play, during which a lot of things can happen. Regardless of what happens though, I CANNOT WAIT for the 2014 season and a chance at 2 (maybe 3) more shots against Seattle. It's gonna be amazing out in the NFC west come next year. Tough to watch this game though, because I think the Niners and D would be beating up on them too.