Saturation Point
 

Over the past couple of months I have watched in a muted amazement at the rollout of a seemingly inexhaustible supply of '52 Topps Mantles, 55T Clemente and Koufax cards from the big AH's, Heritage, REA, Goldin etc. I am no economist, but I have to wonder how long the demand side can keep until prices become inelastic and there is a severe correction. Or when does serious price inflation become a bubble? The wild price fluctuations on say the Clemente card over a short period looks suspicious but who knows. I just have a feeling that the heavyweight players are not that many in number, investors rather than collectors who could pull the plug on their holdings at any time if they become nervous or bored.

Soon in my opinion!

Happy Thanksgiving 🦃!

This has been discussed a number of times. There also could of been cards that were just undervalued for whatever reason. 6 months -a year ago ago there were many that said the hobby was dying...if they would of sold their rookie HOF cards from the 50s they would of regretted it.

Stock market is high as well right now and continues to grow higher and im sure people are saying similar things about that.


As i said before though, during the housing market crisis the waterfront properties kept a lot of their value. The 52 mantle is a waterfront property.

I put the 52 Mantle in a different category than cards like the 55T Clemente and Koufax. The Mantle is an icon, the T206 Wagner of its generation. There may be several thousand of them, but as long as people collect cards, that one will always be something almost everyone would like to have. The same cannot be said of the others. This of course doesn't mean that the 52 T Mantle isn't in a bubble right now, I just think it is just a lot less likely that there is a bubble or that we will see a huge crash for that card than it is for most other cards that have seen big jumps recently.

Cannot speak for every lot of each of the auctions which has just ended but I did not see record prices on most of those I followed. Very few in fact set records and most sold at greatly reduced prices from the summer. What I am in awe about is how the market was able to absorb the sheer volume of product. Prices overall did not impress me but the consumption did.

Anyone's guess I suppose. One thing about those waterfront properties though... They are prone to flooding and storm damage!

right but FEMA always bails them out..

Love the analogy Jake.

When the housing market crash hit CA, everything got hit except homes on the beach.

I can't afford Malibu, let alone the west side of the PCH there.

So, we buy what we can afford. Certainly not as flashy or valuable as Malibu ( 52' Mantle ), but we love what we have. Appreciation may not be as high or quick, and demand not as great if we sell. As a result, we may be more affected if there is a collapse in the market.

And if i'm buying beachfront, I'm not concerned with storm damage or water. That's a risk I take because the upside and demand outweighs any cons.

Actually that is not accurate. Even the homes on the water came down between 2008 and roughly 2011. They came back much faster than all other areas and now are far beyond their previous highs.

Not sure if this is OT, but it caused me to think and chuckle.

When we were hit with a bad flood a few years ago, water and sewer backups were the issue with the seven figure homes along the river. A fellow at work is from SE Asia. He said "You people in North America have it backwards. Where I come from, the poor people live on the water, and the rich people live on the hill."

Saturation Point:
 

If anyone wants to 'pour' a '52 Mantle my way, I'll break out the fishing net!

...and that the only way I'll ever get one. :mad:


mcm

Thank you for the correction. Our home was inland...

Since at least 2010 I have seen the same predictions from the same people that the biggest market crash ever was imminent, just a matter of weeks. Always the same analysis that the dollar was about to lose its status as the world's reserve currency and once that happened it all would go to hell, or some variation on that, always the advice to stockpile gold and food, etc. etc. I am sure there are five ads under the front page on CNN.com and Foxnews.com saying the same thing as we speak. Of course for $99 you can subscribe to their newsletter and get their more in depth advice. :)

i think the point both of us were making is the waterfront properties did not go down the same as the other properties and as you stated that have now taking off as well

thats true...i think in new orleans that applied..who wants to live below gulf/sea level over there..

Not to mention having to euthanize a Whale in Moriches Bay.

We are taking about baseball cards here guys. Their investment value and ability to retain value in my opinion is far different from oceanfront real estate and any real estate for that matter. I think the basic supply demand function is very steep and inelastic for baseball cards, new entrants to the market would appear to be limited and there is no intrinsic value for cards nor is there a basic need for the product ie. shelter. I have a feeling these prices don't hold up much longer. It could be a month, 6 months or a year but they won't hold and there are going to be a lot of unhappy people out there that thought pieces of cardboard would make them rich. I could be wrong but I dont think so.

Not sure about cards but with all this waterfront property talk I would love the market to tank for a few months. Looking at buying some and would love to get it at a reduced price.:D

Artwork doesnt have any real value either and i dont think any cars are really needed for for basic needs hen you are paying 700k....theres always a market for things that arent basic needs......i always hear that basic need argument then i watch pawn stars or any number of auction sites selling tons of non basic need stuff that arent baseball cards and there seems to be always a market for it. Maybe not all time market high but always a market

I'm sure somewhere on the Internet people are warning that the market for 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs is about to come crashing down, and how lots of people are going to get hurt.

haha, well it was really really bad back in 2008 economy wise and cards were still selling, albeit for less but for more than what cardboard is worth.

for all the doomsday people, i think we need to at least be close to how things were in 2008 than now before we start the sky is falling threads. Heck the stock market is at an all time high in some respects and a mantle just went for over a million. It cant be bad for the hobby when that happens.

There are not markets based on reason or need, but emotion and nostalgia. A million dollar Mantle card is not "worth" a penny intrinsically. It's worth a million dollars because that's what a person is willing to pay that for it.

And my experience has been that once a group of people is willing to pay a million dollars for something it doesn't lose its value too easily.

And we collectors will keep the other end of th market going. Good enough for me

Post-war baseball cards are unlike art or real estate due to the trust in third-party graders for their value. If people lose faith in the grader's ability to accurately differentiate an 8 from a 9 then the values could drop significantly. This loss of faith could come about if people found out that cards could be resubmitted and get different grades, that certain dealers got preferential treatment, or that graders make mistakes (imagine the outcry if the most valuable card in the hobby turned out to trimmed after passing third party grading :rolleyes:). I would suspect that if a reporter ever decided to run an experiment where they cracked 10 cards that were graded mint and had some independent hobby experts review each one and then resubmitted all 10 cards to the original grading company, the grades would be alarmingly inconsistent.

R1CK ST3PH3N

That has been true forever. There is a ton of arbitrariness and inconsistency in grading and everybody knows it already, there is no need for any revelations. But the market keeps rolling along. People will still shell out huge premiums for a 9 over an 8, or a 10 over a 9, knowing damn well the card might not regrade at the same level -- or at all. The flip is now the commodity, not the card.

Good points. Separates collectors from investors. I, as a collector, am willing to settle for a lower grade that has decent eye appeal and have little worries about market fluctuation vs some others who are focused on the flip number and pay a huge huge premium for a 9 over and 8 and many of us couldn't tell the difference between those cards without seeing the flips.

People put up with shenanigans for a while and then it stops being fun and the market crashes. In 1990 everyone knew that card companies were intentionally printing error cards, but they kept paying for them because it was fun... for a couple years anyway. Right now people believe the grading system is a bit sloppy and arbitrary, but that it is fundamentally honest. Unfortunately graded cards are very vulnerable to a big scandal. Either good fake slabs will make it into the market or else there will be a scheme of organized bribery/kick backs for grade bumps. Given that there are millions of dollars at stake, I think it isn't a matter of if, but rather when this will happen. I don't think there is a business model that can both grade cards for a rate that collectors are willing to pay, and also guarantee security and competence. $100,000 cards are slabbed in the same plastic as $5 cards... and they are assigned grades by people who probably aren't making a high hourly wage. There is a lot of potential for someone to exploit the current grading system for big money and given that this hobby has had more than its share of people willing to rip off collectors I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. When it does, the market will crash.

Yeah, not seeing the flips it might be scary to see how many 8's you think are 9's and vice versa.

Good fake slabs have already made it into the market in force. There are many threads about this. Preferential bumps have been a fact of life since shows in the 1990s. Preferential grading is essentially a given, look at the biggest ebay store and tell me anyone thinks he could have submitted these same cards and received 20,000 or whatever the number is PSA 10s. The hobby didn't even blink when Mastro admitted he trimmed the Wagner, and Allen admitted he rebacked a T206 Plank. This is all old, old news. Respectfully, your assessment seems somewhat behind the times. You sound like Dennis Purdy writing in 1994 or maybe it was 1996. :) 20 years later, PSA and card values are doing just fine, thank you.

Hyper inflated values always will correct, but I don't see a major crash on the horizon. One of the great things about this hobby is that everyone thinks HIS cards are immune from the shenanigans. :)

I'm not claiming these are revelations, I'm just pointing out that we are in the part of the bubble where people know these things are happening, but still having fun, because it doesn't seem to have gotten out of hand yet. I do think that the majority of collectors believe fake flips will go through Craigslist or ebay, but not the major auction houses or believe that preferential bumps are given to a few collectors, but not enough to substantially alter the equilibrium of supply and demand. It's easy to imagine that perception lasting a few more years, but also easy to imagine a larger scandal that causes that perception to change quickly. Markets are unpredictable, I just believe that this bubble is very vulnerable to scandal/loss of faith. I concede that ten years ago I would have bet against 2016 graded postwar prices being higher than 2006 prices and I would have been wrong, but the fact that the bubble has lasted 20 years, doesn't mean it will last 30. Of course, we don't even need a scandal to correct the market for high end Yaz/Bradshaw/Gretzky/Montana RCs. The rate that raw cards are graded or that 8s become 9s and 9s become 10s is necessarily greater than cards getting cracked out or 10s becoming 9s or 9s becoming 8s, so supply is ever increasing and eventually people may lose faith that these cards are rare.

What fundamentals am I missing about this market that should make me optimistic? The fact that people are aware of some shenanigans and the market is still increasing, just seems like every other bubble to me.

~R1CK ST3PH3N

This is brilliant.

I will admit that with all that and way more slimy stuff happening in the hobby constantly it amazes me beyond belief everyday that cards have any value.

I hear you and of course it could happen. But don't you think the Wagner already should have resulted in a major loss of faith? I think what you may be missing are first, ego and wishful thinking outweighing common sense. As a major card doctor was overheard saying, I give these guys what they want (referring to high end cards that otherwise don't really exist). I believe large numbers of people are buying/investing in flips not really caring about the integrity of the card. Second, the ability of PSA to limit pop growth.

I think that the Wagner could have caused a major loss of faith if it had been more publicized outside the hobby and invited more criticism into the hobby. As it stands, I think the Wagner may be contributing to the impression that the market will tolerate any and all fraud. I think collectors are reasonable to believe that the supply of Wagners is limited and that notoriety can offset grading errors when valuing Wagners. I think collectors will eventually realize this isn't true for the endless supply of postwar RCs mentioned by OP.

I understand that this hobby is surprisingly tolerant. You've pointed out shilling and photoshopping by major ebay stores and they still do great business. You have noted fraud at Legendary and collectors kept bidding in their auction long after the fraud was substantiated. I still think it is reasonable to believe there is a tipping point and it should be repeated that the market for postwar cards is fundamentally different from the fine art and waterfront real estate examples mentioned earlier in the thread.

++++1

I just bought a dozen free range 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs at Safeway this week.

Wait, I'm now wondering if they were knockoff / reprint eggs.

Rick, who knows. I can only say that for the 25 years I have done this as an adult, one thing after another comes out, and nothing seems to derail the train. Altered cards (rampant), fake holders, shill bidding, WIWAG, preferential grading, conflicts of interest (don't even get me started), hobby icons in jail, inconsistent grading, stuff seems to trump all. So my thinking is that stuff is going to continue to trump all, especially as lots of new money seems to be flowing in.

I still question whether the aggregate interest and purchasing power of we 'aging' (to be charitable) baby boomers (I'm 67) with regard to vintage cards will be completely replaced by the next generation. Maybe so: we collect old-timers we never saw play so why shouldn't today's youngsters collect Mickey Mantle? On the other hand, there are many other diversions today that the millenials grew up with that lay claim to their disposable dollar.

Also, I've wondered for some time whether we might be headed for a (modest?) economic downturn generally that could impact uses of disposable income and thus the value of collectibles. Since I was a poor economics student in college and never fully understood it, however, feel free to ignore this point.

There likely is a enough people born in the 80s though likely collected baseball cards and they are in their 30s-40s. Lots of things may have lesser value in 50 years but thats not for here nor there at this time. Also when there is down in a any market, nobody usually sees it coming. Its silly when people say in 30 years, or in 20 years etc. Its not like 1 year before that 20 or 30 years is over everyone than goes, SELL NOW. Can revisit the aging issue in 30 years. Go and wait 30 years to buy card you want or a mongolian egg if you are concerned.

People buy things in life for today, they dont worry about 50 years from now, heck people buy things today they cant even afford. There are also a lot of mid lifers that spend a lot of money on very young girls to date in the hope of pursing a relationship. That relationship likely wont work, but they spend the money anyway. It not like everyone at the same time is just going to spend money with the future value of 30 years from now in mind when most dont even care about tomorrow. Thats human nature

I am torn between putting my new investment funds into a 1955 RC Clemente or Dutch tulips. Right now I am leaning towards the flower.

It is almost the end of the season for good Dutch bulbs so buy quickly.:)

And buy graded, just to be on the safe side. :D

And be careful with that too!!

That may happen soon enough, what with sea levels rising......