Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus
$50K for a one of three refractor rookie? $14,999 for a gold refractor rookie? Those cards won't be actually worth that based on true collector demand in your grandchildren's grandchildren's lifetimes!
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I was having this discussion with a friend just the other day. He is huge into the modern card market. (I dabble, but mostly just raw base RC's to keep.) He "prospects" which is basically the same thing everyone did in the late 80's, except he unloads immediately. He argued that certain cards, in particular the 2009 Mike Trout Bowman Chrome AU run will hold near current prices barring the unforeseen cutting his career short. I called him crazy and we debated for awhile. He walked away thinking he was right, and I did the same for myself - except that later I thought about it and.... he could be right.
For starters, the kid has talent (crazy talent) and he's exceptionally marketable for MLB. The fact that a Mantle vs. Trout debate can spring up and not be considered absurd speaks highly for the kid. It highly conceivable for him to go down as the best of his generation. So lets look at his most coveted card/cards (the 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto RC) and compare it to the 1952 Topps Mantle (the most important card of the post-war vintage market.)
Personally I've always argued against manufactured scarcity when compared to authentic scarcity, but after this debate I looked at the issue from a different prospective. For example, the two major variables for vintage cards are scarcity and condition. With the consideration of a vintage card this condition variable can easily range from 0 (Authentic) to 8/9/10 (Mint). With modern cards, however, this range usually shortens from 0-10 to ~8-10. This leaves little in the way of comparison, but if we substitute manufactured scarcity for condition with modern cards a more fair argument can be made.
With the 1952 Topps Mantle, PSA and SGC have combined to grade ~1,500 specimens.
With the 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Auto PSA and BGS have combined to grade ~1,100 copies.
So they're in the same ballpark with the number of copies on the market. (Copies available on eBay are also similar - ~20 for Mantle ~30 for Trout.)
However, the average grade assigned to the 1952 Topps Mantle by PSA (the card's leading grader) is ~3.7, while the average grade assigned to the 2009 Bowman Chrome Trout by BGS (the card's leading grader) is a much higher 9.2. With condition as point of discussion there is absolutely no way to discuss the cards together. Modern cards simply grade higher because the hobby has become about collecting and preserving.
So lets look at substituting manufactured scarcity for condition for the Trout and comparing the two. As of now the market for the 1952 Topps Mantle is ~$10k - $14k for a PSA 4 depending on the presentation which puts it in the same current market range as the 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Orange Refractor. The Trout Orange Refractor, however, is limited to just 25 copies while to date PSA has assigned a grade of "4" to 159 Mantles. With this considered, I believe that yes, it is possible for this certain card maintain current levels and even possibly grow. It is highly possible that in the future hobbyist collecting modern cards will chase manufactured scarcity much in the same manner we currently chase high grade vintage cards. If Trout maintains his current production on the field and remains the hobby darling this card will become the "must have" card of this era much like the Mantle is for 1950's-1960's.