[MCoxon]

Great question on Johnston's Cookies - I'll bet regional and non-mainstream Topps issues will rise, relative to their Topps counterparts, especially in cases where there prices are lower even though they are more scarce.

I recently picked up a '57 Sohio Maris and love it. I think it must be much rarer than his '58 Topps, and like it for that reason.

Others will say Topps (and early Bowman, Goudey, Playball, etc.) will always hold sway among collectors and command premiums to non-mainstream cards, but I'm not so sure. I think there's a chance collectors will move their desires to regionals as they seek out "scarcity".

Even within mainstream cards, there's been a shift to buying on condition - a form of scarcity. Collectors today spend multiples on a PSA 8 or 9 cards compared to a PSA 7. I don't think that the price difference was so high for a Nr-Mt vs. a NM-MT card vs. a Mint card in the 1970s and 1980s (admittedly, due to the objectivity that TPGs bring).

I suspect people are bidding up prices on cards with low PSA pop numbers. For instance, I'll bet there are roughly the same number of 1959 Mantles in Nr-MT or better condition today as compared to 1985 (maybe more, as hidden stacks of cards are found). Let's say 5,000 1959 Mantle cards exist today at "Nr-MT or better" -- using Beckett's 1987 condition guides, and regardless of whether they're slabbed or not.

But there are now only 308 1959 Mantles in PSA 8 or above, as of this morning, per the PSA pop report. Thus, a shift in tastes (to a PSA 8+ slab) has artificially constrained demand of a card that had 5,000 down to 308. That's a form of scarcity, just not one that appeals to me

So long story short - I'd bet the 1954 Johnston's Cookies, the Sohios, the Bazookas, the Exhibits, the Red Mans (with tabs - scarce), the 1971 Topps Greatest Moments, etc., will continue to appreciate relative to their mainstream Topps counterparts