Quote:
Originally Posted by japhi
Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.
And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?
I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.
As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?
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There was a comment earlier about people still watching PWCC listings. The answer is yes I still do. I don't see how someone can't.
EBAY is a real time market place. The same data that is available to stock market participants is available to those buying cards. These same people can turn on the news and see the horror show. Why are they still bidding on cards? I don't know. I know I have been trolling EBAY looking for stuff to buy at the same pace during this entire market meltdown. If something I want shows up I am buying it. 100% of my card buys have come from monthly cash flow and I assume there are plenty of others who have a similar situation.
I put more money into cards in 2010 then any other year and that was a horrible time for the economy and highly uncertain for me in finance. In my view cash flow is king and so there is no doubt that there will be some cash flow impact in the coming months for loads of people. That said my cash flow can decline and I can still afford to buy cards. Some won't be able to. How much they matter to the card prices is debatable. I don't know the answer.
The economy was in great shape heading into this. I think it all comes down to how long it is halted. If it is two months for most of it the stimulus package and debt extension efforts will help. If it is four months or more we will be in trouble for a while. The decline in interest rates and energy is huge stimulus and obviously the lack of work is not.
There was a hedge fund manager that was on CNBC this week twice who is a billionaire and in his late 40's and started at 25. He thinks the market hits new highs by the end of the year. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Yes. He is looking at the same situation we are.
I personally think this is a very hard one to predict because under no circumstances did I think in 2009 it would be a v shaped recovery. I remember arguing with an old timer in the office who was a portfolio manager and was insistent we were in trouble for a long time. I couldn't have been more wrong as the market came screaming back and while I had been very bearish on the way down I didn't get it right on the way back up. With a massive amount of fiscal stimulus it is very possible that this will assist in keeping us from going as deep as one might think and certainly could assist in us coming back from this.
My situation is different than most because I own such a large concentration of the same cards and a large percentage of the population totals. A few weeks ago an Andre The Giant 1982 PSA 8 sold for $1,358. There are 18 in the pop report and I have 6 of them. I know I could never sell them all at the same time and not impact prices. A PSA 7 sold for $620. I have 7 of those. The same holds true there. That said the totals of these cards are low enough where they don't come for sale frequently and so if someone wants one they have to go after it. Do some of the market participants get knocked out of the market for this card? Possibly but it is not 100%.
I truly believe that a ton of money has flowed into cards because they are a hard asset. You still own it regardless of the value. Someone who bought Enron watched their piece of paper go to zero. An Andre will always be worth something. Perhaps more. Perhaps less but never zero.
There is a trimmed raw Kobe Bryant card with a current bid of $145,600 right now on Ebay. Why? Because there are people out there that want this stuff and that isn't going to change. The buying power might change and that is the the question we can't answer. If it lasts a few months it is a non event. If it lasts years than yes the economy will catch up to cards.
It remains to be seen how this plays out and I remain optimistic we will get through this. I hope I am right. It has never paid to bet against the American economy for long.