From an editorial on SCD the other day:
"Anyone following the market closely realizes that some areas of the card market have hit a soft spot or a plateau. Prices have clearly started to drop online for some individual cards or categories and I can tell you firsthand, there is less overall interest in store than there was a few weeks ago, but I’m not saying the sky is falling just yet, Chicken Little.
Many of the people that brought cards in this week were scratching their head, wondering aloud as to why they couldn’t seem to sell at the rate or the price points that the very same cards fetched just a few short weeks and months ago. Fortunately or unfortunately, this is why we are seeing these cards in store now. Sellers can’t get the money they’re expecting online, so we are the last resort. People assume they can make more selling online than offering their inventory up to an LCS but I’m here to tell you that isn’t always the case- at least not for us.
On many Facebook groups and message boards, I have recently noticed more and more people (who I can assume are newer to the hobby) also complaining about people not making offers on the cards they have listed or just having a tougher time selling them in groups in general.
There are fewer and fewer young kids coming in looking for the hottest basketball singles, boxes or packs. There are fewer unfamiliar faces in the shop daily buying boxes lately. Heck, I haven’t seen anyone standing in our store on their phone comping prices online for weeks. So, there’s definitely a sense or a feeling in the air that things are a-changing.
Our box and pack sales are down but at the same time we have a number of categories that are still hot. We are still selling big stars, rookies and fun items like that, they are just selling for a little less at the moment."
The stupid money is on the march. That's why you see frothy commentary and a plateau: the remaining players are trying to hype their stuff ahead of selling, while the potential purchasers try to decide whether the music has stopped playing. Just watch for the stampede to the exits on anything where the speculators rule the roost. This is the start of the desperation selling and ultimately capitulation. By the end of the summer I would not be surprised to see 20%-30% price drops from the prices at the height of the frenzy on a vast array of cards. Quality prewar will be the last to feel it. When there are only a few hundred examples of a card and most of them are in the hands of people like us who will be loaded into our caskets clutching them, prices tend to go up and stick the longest, or supply just vanishes as prices soften because we don't have to sell.
Where to jump back in will be the fun game to play.