The beauty of the T206 set is that there are so many different ways to do it, none of which are "wrong". In my opinion:
- is it better to buy a HOFer at a lower grade or someone else at a higher grade?
"Better" is a very subjective term, but for me personally, when we are talking about cards that are over 100 years old, grade doesn't matter. In fact, I prefer my T206s to look like they are 100 years old. The wrinkles, the rounded corners, the scuffs - they are all part of the journey that that particular card has been on, part of the story it is telling. All my graded T206s are 1s and 2s. As long as the card is in one piece, and the image is clearly viewable, it's ok with me. You will never go wrong with HOFers or very rare backs in any grade.
- are certain card backs preferable to others? I’ve read some, like Polar Bear, are more rare than Caporal, for example
In terms of scarcity and/or value, yes, definitely. There are whole posts/videos/academic papers (kidding, maybe?) on this, but generally speaking you have the cream of the crop: Drum, Uzit, Broad Leaf 460, Lenox Brown, Hindu Red for which you'll be paying several thousand dollars for low grade commons. You have your super premiums - Lenox Black, Broad Leaf 350, Carolina Brights, that are the next highest tier. Mid-level premiums - American Beauty 460, Hindu Brown, Cycle 460, Piedmont 42, where you can expect to pay about $500 for a low grade common. The most accessible level of premium backs - American Beauty 350 (frame and no frame), Sovereign 460, Tolstoi, El Principe De Gales, Sweet Cap 350-460 / 25, Cycle 350 - where you'll pay $200 - $400 for low grade commons; mid level backs - Old Mill, Sovereign 150, Sweet Cap overprints, Polar Bear, Sovereign 350 (apple and forest green), which demand a slightly higher premium than the common Piedmonts and Sweet Caps.
- I assume buying a graded card is smarter than buying a raw card
It depends what you want to do. For resale value, yes, PSA or SGC graded is usually better. I display my non-HOFers in a binder, so if I buy one that is graded I will crack it out. There is nothing wrong with buying raw cards from reputable dealers or esteemed collectors on this board.
- I don’t expect anyone to predict the future but is it “safe” to assume that these cards will always be special, even if they don’t appreciate tremendously in value? I’d buy the card because I love having it and looking at it, not because I expect to flip it and buy a new car
I believe that HOFers, especially the A list hall of famers in the set - Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson, Young, Speaker, and Lajoie will always retain and probably increase their value. Same for the higher level of offbacks.
- how do I display the card? I’d kind of hate to buy it and then keep it hidden and out of view
Nice, matted, UV protected frame on a wall or desk looks really nice.
If I were spending $2500 on T206s now, i would either try to get 2 low grade A list HOF portrait cards - you may be able to find a low grade Johnson and Speaker, or Young and Mathewson for that (Cobb probably slightly out of your price range at this point). OR I would buy several mid-tier HOFers / stars that would look really cool in a matted frame: Homerun Baker, John McGraw, Rube Waddell, Willie Keeler, etc. You could probably get 4 or 5 of them and create a nice display piece.
Good luck, and enjoy the ride.
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