Posted By:
James Verrill
Hi guys.
The Brown BL 460 featured in the Festberg auction was not mine.
Among the BL 460's I have and have had, I chose the Brown and I sent it to SGC. It came back a 60 (very conservative). I then consigned it to Doug at Mastro, and it was featured in the December auction.
It closed at somewhere around $2600.00 - a little less than I had anticipated, but I am pretty sure I can guess why: the same auction (as you all know, I am sure) featured an unusually high number of lots of T206s with rare backs. An amazingly high number of such cards, by my thought.
There was a group of 10 cards w/rare backs - Drum, Lenox, UZIT. There was another group of 10 cards with rare backs - this group ALL HOFers - with Drum, Uzit, etc. And, there was also the group of 25 cards with HINDU backs (many being HOFers).
These 3 lots were remarkable. And, no - I don't feel "anguished" that so many tough backs appeared at once, causing a "flood effect" per se. On the contrary - I bid on them just like any other tough back collector.
So, anyway - that is my theory. Even though it was the only BL 460 in the auction, and even though it was better condition, and even though it was a HOFer, and even though it was (at the time) the highest graded example of a HOFer w/a BL 460 back - still, back collectors can only spend so much money at one time. Choosing how to dispense that money - and on what, can be a tough choice. I am thinking that, a number of folks that would typically have bid this up higher, ended up deciding to bid on one of the groups of 10, instead - offering them a better chance to "offset" their investment by selling one or two cards from the group, after sale.
No disappointment here. The card was featured as it had been promised to me it would be, and, it attracted enough bids for me to be satisfied with the outcome. I think there is still a disparity out there about how rare the BL 460 back really is. Some people still don't call it "a back", they call it a "back variation". So, instead of comparing it in value to Drum or Uzit, it is compared in such a way as to establish a premium above the "common" Broadleaf back. More specifically - it is placed in a sub-category of Broadleaf, and not in a primary category alongside Drum, etc. I am not saying this is wrong, just that it exists.
To conclude, I would say that the opening price of $1500 on the BL 460 Brown featured in the Festberg auction auction was fair market value. I do not think, however, that the "estimated value" of $9,00.00 was accurate. Not even close (in my book). I would say, based on my experience with these backs, that card - ungraded, is worth about $1800.00. I think the problem is that alot of people are hesitant to buy such pricey items from Festberg, for fear of any number of the situations mentioned on this board in the past. Also, a potential buyer may have looked at the card, and calculating the premium on top of bid price, may have decided the end result was too near to the "actual market value" to make it a wise investment. I would also guess that the current "flood" of rare backs in the market right now is also a possible contributing factor.
James Verrill