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Posted By: warshawlaw

to my Floridian colleague, there is no empirical evidence that rookie cards are any scarcer than any other cards from most (not every) sets where they carry huge premiums. In fact, what little evidence there is proves that the opposite is true when it comes to graded examples. The August 2004 SMR has a population report on 1956 Topps cards. There are 629 graded Aparicio cards, while commons run about 20%-25% of that total on average. Steve Gromek, who I picked because he has a common-sounding name, has 160 cards slabbed. Aparicio is a minor HOFer; his cards typically carry a premium of less than 100% of the common price (see 1958, $55 common in 8, $100 Aparicio in 8), except for his rookie card. His 1956 card is $305 in 8, nearly six times the common price of $55 per card. His rookie premium, therefore is about 4x the price of a common card. If raw numbers in existence was the sole determinant of the premium price, you would expect the population to dictate a premium price on all lower population common 1956 cards, since they exist at 20%-25% of the rate of the Aparicio cards. Since that does not happen, the premium attached to the rookie card status (as opposed to the expected differential between the card of an Aparicio and a Gromek) is simply the result of demand being driven by the marketers.