Posted By:
warshawlaware all over estimate and over my budgeted prices for them.
I think what we will ultimately see is that quality cards bring quality prices wherever and whenever they are offered. It isn't like the old days; we all have overlapping access to the on line auction catalogs and can decide in real time whether to go after items in the overlapping auctions. I know that I did that with the latest run (20th century only outbids-go to mastro-mastro too high--bid in Lipset-lost in Lipset, look at REA). What I collect was very high priced; I was way out of the money on anything I wanted in Mastro, I was topped on all of the Lipset lots I wanted except one (and I got that one only because I went in with someone who I split the lot with, which enabled me to jack up my bid beyond my budget), and I am out of the running on the items in REA too.
The lots I see getting killed are the second tier cards, the postwar stuff, and the lots that are more or less random comglomerations of cards that don't make sense from a collecting perspective but that have break value. The latter especially will be hurt by timing because the collectors who would buy them for some of their parts at "retail" and try to turn out the remainders in trade or on ebay are the ones who jack up the prices over the break-up value to dealers, and those collectors probably shot their wads in the prior auctions.
I know it is a recurring rant, but here goes again: Why are things lotted so bizarrely in all these auctions? I was dissuaded from bidding on many lots because they had so much crap I don't want thrown together. I remain convinced that the auctioneers and their customers leave a lot of money on the table by throwing so much stuff into each lot and driving out collectors who would bid pretty well on many of the separate pieces. If a lot is estimated at $1,000 and contains five disparate items, I might be willing to pay $500 for the one item I want, but I don't really want to deal with the remaining stuff unless I can get a steal. There are probably more collectors who feel the same way. I know some auctions that have closed in the past have left thousands of dollars on the table because of lotting decisions, either because I follow the market on the cards sold or because I bought them and turned them out myself. I am especially peeved when multiple sets of the same cards are lotted together; why not make one set of the best cards or even two and then junk lot the rest? It has to be better than dumping all of the sets into one sale and in essence consigning the lot to the dealers who would be willing to carry the extras as inventory. It seems to me that lotting decisions are made on the basis of simply being able to state an estimate of $X per lot. I think the auctioneers are doing a disservice to the sellers of these items. I know whan I bottom feed on these sorts of lots I often pick up cards at a fraction of value and have my cash out quickly. That can't help the sellers at these auctions.