Posted By:
warshawlawI've been collecting for 35 years. I had my first dealer's table at a card show in 1978. I've seen the whole growth of the hobby. One thing I've not seen is anyone lose all their money buying solid vintage cards. One of the most irritating things about the news coverage from the National was the constant harping on what trouble card collecting was in. They made it sound like people couldn't give away cards. Yes, shiny crap and the shiny crap makers are singing the blues...AS IT SHOULD BE. People are finally wising up to the fact that buying new cards at retail is like tossing money in the toilet.
Vintage cards, especially pre WW I cards, are hotter than ever before. I do not expect any great declines, corrections, whatever else you want to call them, unless the general economy turns to mush and we have another Depression. That said, there are certainly some issues that are higher on the risk scale than others. No matter how much their cheerleaders try to boost them, PSA 8 and up vintage common cards are classically risky items because they are very expensive and trade thinly. If a few rich guys get bored, there goes a substantial chunk of the market. If you are really concerned about vintage sets retaining their value, stick with HOFers in the mainstream items: T205-T206-T207, 1933 Goudey, etc. Those cards are so widely collected and so accessible that there is a large market and there always will be.