Posted By:
davidcyclebackI've been thinking a lot about this set lately and would like to get some feedback on a variety of thoughts and questions.
1.) How many percent on the open market are real? Less that 3 percent. The original cards are scarce, but not impossible to find. Also, the 3 percent has as much to do with the quantity of reprints as the population of the real cards. There are tons of reprints, just as there are tons of reprints for the T206 Honus Wagner.
The practical problems for collectors, is, while they may have handled 100s of T206s, they've never seen in person a real Fro Joy so they don't know what a real one looks like. It's a situation where many Pre-War collectors will trust their abilities to judge the authenticity of a $1 million card (Wagner) over a $500 card (Ruth). And, in fact, seasoned Pre-War collectors have no trouble identifying a reprint Wagner.
I believe the Fro Joy Gene Tunney, which is the boxing parallel to the Ruth, was never reprinted like the Ruth. A collector can get a Tunney for comparison purposes or simply to own a Fro Joy. More than a decade ago Bob Lemke wrote an article on the Ruth Fro Joy fakes for SCD, and SCD used the Tunney uncut sheet for comparison, as it wasn't reprinted.
2.) Is there a 100% fullproof way to distinguish real from fake? Pretty much. Also, most reprints can be identified with naked eye examination. Some of the better reprints have design flaws, and some even fluoresce brightly under black light. For one of the better reprints, they can be identified in an online scan as the printing lines on back are different than the real cards. The black line box on back has breaks on the particular reprint, while the authentic box has no breaks (solid, unbroken line all the way around the box).
From a more 'forensic' standpoint, the orignal Fro Joys were made using a period printing method, while the reprints I've seen were made with modern lithography. Even if these reprints were to look okay from naked eye view, examination of the printing with a microscope would show then not to be original. These particular reprints also had naked eye seen issues, including the black box and black light issue. So the microscopic view confirmed what others could see just looking at the cards with their own two eyes.
4.) Will a legitimate grading company ever grade these? I would think so. I hear Beckett grades them. Someone I know to be very knowledgeable about the Fro Joys Ruths, and who's opinion on authentic V reprint Fro Joys I value, says Beckett graded cards he knew were originals. I know many vintage collectors don't prefer Beckett due to their grading and related issues, but even their detractors will say Beckett is in general competent at authenticating cards.
5.) If we see a legitimate grading company grade these, will prices explode? How much? Probably. The cards are inexpensive compared to similar Ruth cards. However, when places like Mastro and REA auction them, they can get good prices.
If a collector is interested in purchasing Fro Joy cards, he or she can purchase from Mastro, REA or similar. They will know what they are doing. I know of a collector who owned some Fro Joys from the Barry Halper collection with the Sotheby's tags, and they were fine. Due to the famous provenance and tags, he had no trouble getting fair money for them.
If a collector is uncomfortable buying the cards, for fear that one way or another they might be reprints or that PSA will never grade them, there are lots of other Ruth cards to chose from.