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Jason Land good point regarding how you would have to trim the value of the probable cards because of packaging problems as well.
For instance, you would wind up with a series of probabilities to consider:
-For a set of 400 cards, assuming an even print-run, there might be a 1/400 chance that any one random card is a Mantle
-For a pack of 10 cards, there is a 1/10 chance that any single card is damaged by glue residue
-For any box containing 4 stacks of 9 packs, there is a 8/36 (or 2/9) chance that a corner pack will have suffered bump damage
I suppose it's endless.
This is probably a good way to go insane.
Perhaps I will start the calculations some night soon when my baby daughter has us up for feedings!