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Old 09-10-2009, 01:13 PM
Matt Matt is offline
Matt Wieder
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Cleveland, OH
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One last follow up for the sake of correctness (I'll continue the OT probability discussion with ebeachley offline unless it's of interest to others):

One flaw in the logic we've both been using: Say 10% of 350/460 cards have a population of 5. That doesn't mean there's a 10% chance that a given card with a survey population of 5 is a 350/460 card. Rather, it means if a card IS a 350/460 card it has a 10% chance of being a 5 pop. In order to do a correct statistical analysis for our example, we need to compare the 10% chance of a 350/460 being a pop 5 to the % of a 350 series being a pop 5. Let's say the probability that a 350 only card is a pop 5 is 50%. Now, knowing we have a pop 5 card, we can say it is 10%/%10+%50 or a 1 in 6 probability it is a 350/460 card.
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