[Econteachert205]

Ok, I have been thinking about this and I'm sure I'm late to the party but it seems to me the greatest volatility with regards to condition affecting price occur in the vg and ex markets. The low grade gets dragged up with the market, but slowly and with less profitability. The high grade sets trends and informs the lower grade. It is where the best pure alpha is and therefore the direction most "investment grade" collectors go. (note I am not one). With regards to prewar (which is my focus in this discussion) I think this has already been discussed in the zeenut threads and is being discussed in relation to 1914 CJ's. This is interesting because if 1914 Cj commons would follow the zee nut trend then there is a chance to track prices for leading indicators (i.e. when to stop buying and start selling). So my instinct would be to say the the most volatile grades (I hypothesized vg and ex) would be the leading indicator of a trend. So my question is basically with the zeenut, what started going down first? Was it mid grade ebay/small auction lots, ebay low grade beaters, or a major auction high grade beauties?