Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?
I lean more prewar, but I have kept up with the modern as well.
This last year I hear a lot about Kris Bryant and see the prices of his cards flying past other players. I can't help but feel it is too soon to think he is great and maybe even overrated.
In his first season he already ranks 8th in most strikeouts in a single season with 199. His SLG didn't break 500 (.488).
If you look at Ryan Howard, another person that ties for 8th in single season strikeouts (not in his rookie year), his overall rookie season stats are better.
Ryan Howard didn't have a full season until his 3rd season in. So the only advantage Bryant has over Howard is youth.
Howard's first three season splits:
.304/.399/.624 with OPS 1.024 - OPS+155
Bryant's splits
.275/.369/.488 with OPS .858 - OPS+ 133
I know it may be easy to compare him to Harper's rookie season, but Harper never had the SO ratio Bryant had while still putting up a similar slash line. Even then Harper is still younger than Bryant with 4 seasons under his belt before his 23rd birthday.
It seems to me that it is very presumptuous that Bryant is going to be a top 5 player, or that he already is. With a stirkeout ratio like his he would need a better Slugging percentage. The real problem is I don't see SO going down while his Slugging goes up. Pitchers know he uses an uppercut swing so they will pitch to him with that knowledge and he will follow the path of other strikeout kings like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn.
I could be wrong and missing something if you see something in his playing worth the praise/value he gets among collectors let me know. Or if you just don't think 199 SO in a rookie season is a big deal let me know that too.
|