Baseball reference compares him to Eddie Mathews, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, and Billy Williams (other comparable players are either still playing or are his contemporaries). Mathews and Williams were not first ballot, while schmidt and mantle were.
If you look at career fWAR, Jones ranks 33rd, which is pretty darn good considering his injuries (and fWAR is a cumulative stat). Players around him include Ripken, Kaline, Boggs, Brooks Robinson, Dimaggio, Brett, Clemente, Cap anson, Gehringer, George Davis, Luke appling, and Bench. Eliminating the pre war players, Ripken, Kaline, Boggs, Robinson, Brett and Bench were first ballot guys. Griffey is also pretty close to him and my gut tells me he's a first ballot.
Include other circumstances that appear to favor him - well liked by the media, stayed with one team the entire time, many of his contemporaries, though potentially deserving, wont be inducted because of steroid implications, and he hasnt been linked to steroid usage (like griffey, whether we like it or not, many will point to his injuries as proof).
My guess is that he'll get in first ballot, not just because of his numbers, but the "other stuff" will help push him in. Just his numbers alone - no doubt HOF'er, but first ballot there is an argument against it (unlike with henderson in 09, ripken and gwynn in 07). The argument largely being the injuries over the last 8 seasons. But, an MVP and 5 other top 10 finishes is pretty darn convincing. And he did quite a bit in 07 and 08 (according to WAR, his two best seasons) despite the injuries.
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