Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
I didn't say they were the same thing and my point about Mantle's item was that you're taking a giant leap of faith by accepting the story behind an item vs. buying something guaranteed and authenticated by MLB in Trout. I used Mantle as an example because many people have said for years that Trout could be the next Mantle or compared their numbers as Trout's career has played out. Mantle is also at the top of the HOF tier where items are the most expensive, which is where I think Trout will end up.
If you buy something now before someone is a HOFer, and that person becomes one of the greatest players of all time later, it would stand to reason that the item would inflate. Then inflate again as induction came up. That's when you sell.
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I'm not sure I agree with this on 2 accounts:
1) I don't think the provenance really matters much to be honest. When it comes to collectors of Mickey Mantle, almost all the options have at best 3rd party provenance. Collectors don't have the choice to pursue anything else, and so they compete over what is available. For Trout, given the way MLB now authenticates things, that has become the new standard. The bar is now higher, but the basic laws of supply and demand don't change. I could be wrong but I think there are probably very few collectors who want to collect Mantle but don't because of the provenance. If this is the case, I don't see prices being affected much.
2) Regarding prices increasing, once again I am not sure that this will be the case. The assumption needs to be that throughout Trout's career, the demand will continue to rise faster than the supply increases, and I am not sure that that can be expected with the way MLB pumps out memorabilia. It is definitely possible, but if Trout plays another 15 seasons and has 600 plate appearances in each, we will likely hundreds of jerseys, thousands of bats, and possibly a million autographs of his on the market.