In response to losing two jobs at the end of 2011 I opened up a consignment shop. I have learned quickly that the market for "stuff" is rapidly drying up. People who come in say their kids have no interest in their collectibles. They only care about video games and money.
I have some contacts with a couple of local estate auction houses and they say the top end is where it's at. The IPO rich and the Wall Streeters have nearly unlimited cash and freely spend it on things to show off but the mid and lower end of all markets is all about bargain hunters and flippers.
In terms of autographs, with few exceptions, autographs of today's athletes and celebrities is a scribble. You can't tell one from the other. The thing that drove me to the hobby was the elegance of the handwriting - think Chas Gehringer - but today's autographs are a joke. I can't see anyone being hooked on the hobby getting an autograph of someone they can't even tell who it is (the woman in the car notwithstanding - she just wanted ANYONE). This can't help the hobby long term.
And given the prevalence of electronic communication it is entirely possible that good handwriting will be a "lost art".
I think nice vintage pieces of iconic stars will always be in demand, certain team collectors will probably always look for some obscure names but I think in the long run on the low end there is going to be a lot more supply than demand.
The other killer is the sheer volume of forgeries.
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