I think he's a HOFer. But if ballot # sorta ranks where you stand amongst your HOF peers, I'd put him in the 2nd tier, so 2nd ballot.
His "Wins Above Replacement" for positional players was in the top 10 only 5 times in his 18 year career (highest finish 3rd). By comparison, Pujols was #1 6 years in a row. Thats first ballot. Bonds was #1 eleven times in WAR for positional players. Schmidt and Morgan, 4 times they were #1. Those guys are first ballot HOFers. Mays, Hornsby, Ruth, Mantle, Cobb, Ted Williams, Lajoie were all #1 AT LEAST 5 times each. A dozen or so others were #1 multiple times. Chipper was never #1, nor #2 in his own league.
Not first ballot (maybe to poor defense), but easily has enough career achievement to make him a certain HOFer, probably 2nd ballot.
Just my opinion
Rob