Quote:
Originally Posted by EYECOLLECTVINTAGE
Ok so here are some thoughts I want to share regarding these tickets and maybe I am opening up a can of worms, but I am confident in my assessment so here it goes.
I had SGC look at this sheet this past weekend and they are good 1000%.
As far as value, I had someone at the Hofstra show interested in these.
He asked what I wanted and I told him what I paid and said I obviously think they are worth more than that. He then tells me he would think these are worth anywhere from 4500-7000 which I agreed with, however he wanted to call a few people.
He called 3 top ticket people in the industry (some whom are probably members here) and they mostly agreed that these are 2500-3500 at most and not very uncommon.
Here is what I am having some trouble grasping....
1. So this guy is a huge long time Ruth collector whom has a large collection from signed balls to gamer bats. He has never seen this before.
Everyone I have shown this to (dealers included) have never seen this before, but somehow it's not an uncommon item?
I am having a lot of trouble with this evaluation both in regards to scarcity and value.
Here is why...
I searched worthpoint, google and many other sites and came up with nothing.
It wasn't until Dave shared that 2012 heritage link where is was sold as part of a lot that I even knew another existed.
These are not common. There are barely even many single ticket proof documented sales or in the population report for PSA (I know that the Pop report doesn't mean as much), BUT PSA has only graded 9 Game 3 Proofs and 6 Game 4 Proofs and at the same time 7 Full Game 3 Tickets and 4 Game 4 Tickets.
These seem almost equally scarce with the information given.
I did a worthpoint and google search going back to 2013 (obviously the market has rocketed since then) and here is what I found.
GAME 3
October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750
GAME 4
December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000
GAME 5
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.
Now these are single game proofs. These are factual sales. Look at the gap between sales.
I am sure I may be missing a few that did not pop up.
Given this information, how can one value this sheet at $2500-$3500?
You can break these down and get the following..
GAME 3 = $3577.12 average (including that mile high anomaly) $4087.50 without it.
Game 4 = I would estimate this game to be worth at least $1300 as I will not attempt to average only 2 numbers with one being $4000 and one being $800.
Game 5 = Let's say $250.
With that low Mile High anomaly included, one could reasonably expect sell the 3 tickets broken down for $5127.12.
If you take out the Mile high ticket, you would be at $5637.50
ALSO. Keep in mind there are no documented sales in 2017 yet and we are definitely in a BULL ticket market right now as is evidence from all ticket sales of all sports and years.
NOW... do we not add anything for this being a high grade complete sheet? does the scarcity add no value?
Ok even if it doesn't (which I disagree with) look at the above numbers. It is simple math.
Value is subjective, however numbers don't lie. $2500 would be taking the lowest sales from each ticket ever.
There it is. I am done, just dislike how people are number blind when it comes to opinions.
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I would agree with your assessment if numbers are accurate. Numbers do not lie. Also, people like to discount things they do not own.
That said, I would rather have a game used ticket stub than a full or a proof for the money any day. I am in the minority most likely. Nice pickup!