Quote:
Originally Posted by mferronibc
Great thread. So David, are you suggesting that the value spread between graded cards will start to narrow? I.e that the difference between a graded 5 and 8 may someday only be a few hundred bucks instead of a few thousand given the mounting absurdity to the specific grades being gospel and the growing sense that the 8 grade is more likely to be altered in some way and the 5 more likely completely authentic?
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As I've said repeatedly before, it doesn't require everyone to change their minds to alter the market and values. It requires merely a large enough percentage. That there are people, even many people, who cling to and want you to cling to the old "Move along, nothing to see here" theory of card valuation may prove to be neither here nor there.
I believe that no one with knowledge of the current scandal considers high graded cards the same as before. You see this even on the PSA boards. This change in consideration and sentiments will change or shift values in the future. Plus, there will be a shrinking of the market for such cards. Even on the PSA board, posters say they won't, if at least currently, buy such cards, and many future collectors, otherwise would have, simply won't enter that game and/or accept the old "ignore that the label is wrong" paradigm.
And, as I said, the law puts a big chink in the "just ignore that the label is wrong" financial model. Irrelevant to their sentiments and valuation beliefs, I'm sure many wealthy Registry people aren't about to follow the PWCC model of selling known altered cards. And guess what? It was that illegal PWCC model, coupled with the before-the-scandal collector's sentiments and lack of awareness of how many cards are altered and mislabelled, that created the market values.
To think the valuations, especially of high-grade cards, won't be shifted and changed in the future is daft. How exactly they will be shifted and changed I don't know. However, I'm certain many future, and current, collectors aren't going to pay the current, or recent, rate of 50x value for the removed wrinkle, erased pinpoint spot or lightly pressed left corner. And, believe it or not, not everyone (obviously) but many collectors and investors are not going to say "The card is grade poor but the label is wrong as says it's a 10, so I'm going to pay the higher 10 value."
Millions of dollars worth of current collectors and invistors, including on the PSA board, are already asking for and have asked for their money back for such mislabeled cards-- which, in and of itself, demonstrates that they value, or fear/know others value, such cards less than what was paid. And it only takes a good percentage of those people, coupled with the evergrowing expansion of the knowledge of how many cards are mislabelled like that, to shift market values-- and the returns to PWCC for refunds shows that they already exist. The value for all those millions of dollars of "ignore the card, and price by the label" cards have already fallen, and won't be valued the same if they return to the market. I would offer that as proof in the pudding.
All one has to do to answer the qeustion is ask oneself how many of those outed cards are valued the same. I would guess that 99.9% are valued less, usually majorly less. that what was paid. As evidenced by all the returns, refunds and the ubiquitous, even on the PSA boards, question "What do I do if my card is outed on Blowout cards?"
PSA isn't saying "Return the mislabelled cards to the seller for a full refund" because they think the cards have the same market value as before. They are saying that because even they know the cards are worth than what was paid. They are saying that the realization, both to the collector and the general hobby that the card is altered and does not match the label has devalued the card enough that their official advice is "Get your money back."
And to think some people are claiming "Values won't change"? (?!?!) Even PSA doesn't believe that. Even PSA is saying "You overpaid. The card isn't worth that much, get a refund."