Quote:
Originally Posted by jason.1969
The key requirement we may never see again was that cards were assumed to have no actual value at the time, hence were not generally retained or preserved. Nowadays, just about everything is an instant collectible, hence sought after, preserved, hoarded, etc.
The question I have is how much Mantle's value is buttressed by a fan base that actually saw him in his prime and idolized him. These fans would be at least 65-70 by now, hence unlikely to influence the card market 50 years from now. By then, Mantle goes from being the God of their youths to "just" a Top 15 or so player. I'm sure the iconic past of the card will hold some influence but I don't think the influence will be total or permanent.
Jason
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Bill James ranked Mantle as the 5th greatest player to play major league baseball, with thorough consideration of all the factors that entailed, in his last historical baseball abstract, which is a rating he beyond any reasonable dispute earned in the course of his career. Yes, others posted higher total numbers, but James and I are both talking primarily about quality of play over a substantial period of time, rather than quantity (does anyone really consider Craig Biggio on a par with numerous other HOF'er's simply because he got 3,000+ hits over a long career? Don't expect a run on Biggio cards anytime soon!).
I was asked by dealers I have known for many, many years at the National in Chicago what was going to happen to the value of Mantle cards once those who actually saw him play passed on. My answer was simple, and one I would classify as a basic truism: exactly the same thing as happened over time to Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Wagner and other such cards. The fact that there are more of the Mantles may well make them more cyclical in their appreciation, but I don't think you will go wrong over the long term in tucking away some of his very toughest in the highest grade you can find or afford now.
Happy collecting,
Larry