Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
If you have some extra cash have some fun, but don't sell Mantles and Aarons to buy Jeters and Trouts is my advice.
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A HUGE +1 there. As to Trout, although he's on a Cooperstown path, a lot of things can still happen. It looked like Rocky Colavito was on a 500+ HR path, but his last even arguably good year was at age 33, and he fell far short. See also Dale Murphy--'nuff said. Even Eddie Mathews, who hit 512, seemed headed for 600+ homers (he had 370) at age 30 until a severe shoulder injury interrupted that march, leaving his last really good year at age 30 in 1961--although he played through 1968, his hitting was never the same after the injury. Jeter, IMHO, is vastly overrated, with an OPS+ of around 111 or so, indicating he was roughly only 11% better than average on offense, and a number of people have opined that his defensive metrics were not all that good.
Plus, Trout cards are still at or right around their highest point in the demand part of the equation. If he has the stellar career his potential indicates, wait until he is on his downslide in his mid to late 30's--all the speculative and transient components of the demand for his cards will have moved on to the newest and latest, greatest phenom by then. Not the time to buy.
Best,
Larry