Posted By:
identify7I agree with your assessment in general, however, I think that as cmoking has pointed out; lessons can be learned from more mature hobbies.
Specifically, although grading has many advantages, many astute collectors prefer direct contact with their cards. Independent of third party documentation, identification of the best examples of the more desireable cards will occur. The result will be a condition census in which specific identification of each of the top cards will be established and their ownership tracked.
This process will show the population of the desireable cards in the top grades which they exist. In most cases these cards will all be 10s. For less common cards, those which have survived may be in any condition. All cards which fall below the condition census will be far less desireable; although still possibly good investment items.
High end card population reports generated by grading services must be inaccurate. The difference in values between top grades will continue to mandate resubmissions in an attempt to achieve a higher grade. The cost effectiveness of these resubmissions on just a single upgrade will continue to make the gamble worthwhile.
What results is a population report which containes data skewed by these attempts to achieve a higher grade and slabs which contain cards which just barely squeeked through to get that higher grade. Upon achievement of this status, having a slabbed card is admitting to owning low end (for example - PSA 9). So instead of a pedigree, a slab becomes a stigma.
I hope I have stated my opinions clearly enough to be understood. Certainly I may be wrong in my forecasts. But not necessarilly.