[ls7plus]

Anyone who thinks the hobby is dying should take a look at the changes in REA's auction catalog over the last 20+ years--I have one I believe is from 1993, and its about 6-8 double-sided pages on newspaper-type stock. Now, it seems to grow and grow every year, and is presently over 500 pages of the highest grade, glossy stock available. Of course, REA focuses on where the true value lies in the hobby: rare, truly significant items in the best grade you can find or afford.

The fatal flaw with new cards is that the highest demand and hence price tends to be for "one of...(insert limited quantity)" of such players as Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, where the significant aspect will not be determinable for many years. Pay $50K for a one of three Trout refractor rookie and you may be near tears when he later turns out to be Pete Reiser, Rick Reichardt, Tony Conigliaro, Ron Swoboda, Kerry Wood, Joe Mauer, Steven Strasburg, or even Rocky Colavito, let alone A-Roid (Reichardt and Swoboda were also "the new Mickey Mantle" for awhile in their time). Let him age into his mid to late 30's to see where he really ends up at. His cards will all still be out there. Demand for the latest and greatest is speculative and transient, while that for rare and significant items tends to be lasting and growing, as the number of knowledgeable collectors grows.

The hobby certainly isn't dying, and won't, as long as baseball is around, and collectors are interested in its history. There is, however, a maturing process that occurs within the hobby, and it seems every generation of collectors must learn and accept the above. Paying big bucks for the latest wunderkind to burst upon the scene is no different than taking your wad to the craps or roulette table--which is perfectly fine, so long as you realize exactly what it is that you are doing (and given the asking price for some of these modern "gems," craps and roulette may well have a higher upside). Patience is the order of the day when thinking about spending any significant sums on these kinds of cards/players. You can't make something worth the price you'll have to pay if you submit to the GOTTA HAVE HIM NOW urge by wishing it to be so. Time is the factor that will reveal true and growing value.

May your collecting bring you joy, rather than pain,

Larry