Quote:
Originally Posted by Robextend
Rico Petrocelli (Never hit more than 18HR before 1968):
1968 406AB 12HR
1969 535AB 40HR
Davey Johnson (Never hit more than 18HR before 1972):
1972 376AB 5HR
1973 559AB 40HR
Jose Bautista
2009 336AB 13HR
2010 569AB 54HR
Please explain the difference...I am sure I can dig up more examples as well. The point is that these things DO happen. And if you want to accuse Bautista, go ahead and accuse Davey Johnson and Rico Petrocelli as well.
Thanks - Rob
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OK, Rob, I will explain the difference between what Johnson did and what Bautista has done. Johnson, in contrast to Bautista, was quite a good second baseman for the Orioles, making three all-star teams for them in 1968 through 1970, and batted over .280 three years in a row from 1969 on, when the mound was lowered and the strike zone made much smaller. Now let's see: Did Jose Bautista ever make an all-star team before 2010? Did he ever hit .280 before then? And with regard to Johnson's big homerun surge in 1973--that was the year he was traded to Atlanta, when the Braves still played in Fulton County Stadium, rightfully nicknamed, "the Launching Pad." Bill James had this to say about that stadium's propensity for increasing homerun totals in the context of Hank Aaron:
"...As you can see by the home/road homerun totals, to a considerable
degree Aaron's late-in-life resurgence is a statistical illusion created by
moving from a very poor homerun park, County Stadium in Milwaukee, to a
very good homerun park, Fulton County Stadium in Atlanta. At his peak,
Aaron would have hit 50 homeruns, and probably more than once, had he
been playing in an average homerun park; playing his best years in Atlanta
(or Wrigley Field) he absolutely would have hit more than 60 homeruns in a
season..."
Davey hit 26 of his 43 at Fulton County Stadium in 1973. While he did hit 17 in more neutral parks on the road that year, doubling that to 34 as representing his real, non-park related power surge, is a far, far cry from Bautista's 54 homeruns in 2010, and, as we speak, Bautista's 16 homers in about a fourth of a season or less (given Bautista's games missed to injury this year) and .370 average in 2011. And I don't think anyone would be in danger of confusing even Johnson's '73 stats with Babe Ruth's.
Interesting comparison, though I don't see anything to accuse Johnson of, other than taking advantage of a very favorable homerun park (the Park Factor for Fulton was 115, meaning games played there produced 115% of the runs produced in a neutral park. The infamous Baker Bowl, said to have greatly inflated hall-of-famer Chuch Klein's stats, had a park factor of 113-117 when Klein was in his prime playing half his games there). My assumption would be that Johnson tried to get more loft on the ball after the trade, which, as someone who has played a great deal, I can tell you can be done simply by raising the hitter's back elbow. This puts more loop in the swing, resulting in more flyballs and less line drives. And, as noted in an earlier post, there's nothing to accuse Petrocelli of, other than taking advantage of the obvious difficulty pitchers had in adjusting when he had his big year in '69, the first year they lowered the mound and shrunk the strike zone (you didn't think Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA the year before was all Bob Gibson, did you? He never had another season with an ERA under 2.18 after 1968, and more that were over 3.00 than under for the rest of his career).
One thing that is interesting to think about with regard to Bautista and Gibson is what the latter would have done to dear old Jose had he had the balls to hang so far out over the plate when Bob was pitching that the outside corner was in effect middle-in, as Bautista does now. This is one of the main reasons that this guy really pisses me off. As far as Bob Gibson was concerned, the outside corner of the plate belonged to him. My bet is that Gibson, who was not really a bad guy, just a fiercesome competitor, would have politely buzzed one in close to his chin first, as fair warning. Then, if dear little Jose had the cajones to hold his ground for the next pitch, he would have been sucking his meals through a straw for the next two months! Where are the Gibsons and Drysdales when you need them? You can probably tell that I REALLY don't like this guy!
Love your activity on this one.
Larry