Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerplyr80
If your friend had focused on 89 UD griffey 10s he would have done ok. Maybe not a retirement plan but they've been going up steadily from 200 2-3 years ago to about 400 now. I know there are a lot of them but was the card for collectors who started in that era like myself. No ties to steroids. I think high end griffeys are a good investment personally.
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Not even close. Until the recent investment market, PSA gem mint "10's" were going in the $300 range in June, 2016. That represents little, if any, real change in the true collector market from the August, 2009 SMR, which had them at $240. Since SMR is and has been traditionally low, it is a fair assumption that real sales SEVEN YEARS AGO were at or approaching $300. Disregarding the recent investment surge, which most real collectors can see is most likely unsustainable, the real increase in value of this card OVER THE LAST SEVEN YEARS AS A MATTER OF ACTUAL FACT WAS ABOUT 10-25%. 10-25%, not annually, BUT TOTAL. Should it return to that pace, which when the investors leave is probably quite likely, that means it will take the card 28 years or more to achieve a real doubling in value. That rate of appreciation is less than 3% compounded annually. I wouldn't bet the farm (and I own one) on it being a good investment with that track record!
But to each his own and best of luck to you,
Larry
PS: The Winter 2007 edition of Beckett's Graded Card Investor & Price Guide, which I found to be as up to date as was reasonably possible while it was being published, listed the PSA 10 Griffey, Jr. at $350. Hence, the card basically flat-lined for 9 YEARS until it's recent run-up this past summer. That run-up to about $450 was due either to the recent influx of investor types, or to what is most likely a temporary surge due to his hall of fame induction this year. At any rate, the rate of appreciation for the last 9 years has been just 2.3% compounded annually, lower than even I would have guessed. But completely understandable, with probably little more than a tenth of what's out there having been graded by PSA, and over 27,000 "8"'s, over 20,000 "9"'s, and 2717 "10"'s already graded. Simply stated, there are not only just too many of them already, but likely a supply that will be increasing for some time to come.