Quote:
Originally Posted by JustinD
I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.
The essence of modern card collecting lies in gambling. It's the heart of the marketing for the new releases. You spend a ton in the hopes of a hit. The only chance of even making your money back is buying the freshest release and flipping within days hoping the excitement draws higher bids from set builders or holding rc's praying one pans out.
The moment a player retires if he does not maintain a HOF career the cards are worth 20% of prior sales within 6 months, even if they have a HOF career the excitement maintains about a year or two at best from investors or people thinking of them (talking to you Jeter) and dies. Value (real sales prices not silly beckett value) will drop 75% in 3 years. It will spike again the year of their HOF bid and then slowly die again.
Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".
What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.
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+1. Very well said, Justin. Demand for the current young phenoms has a very large speculative and transient element, with the latter meaning that it shifts to the newest and latest and greatest virtually as soon as it appears. I remember (and it wasn't too long ago) that someone paid $25K on a one-of-one Strasburg refractor--would anyone pay a 50th of that now?
Best to all, and buy what you like,
Larry