Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1
Most recent numbers I saw earlier today look very good for Walker.
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The deal with Walker is that he usually gets more support from the writers who release their ballots than those who keep them private. Based on the degree to which his support has dropped (between public and private ballots) in the past, Walker should be right on the line. Nate Rakich, over at 538, has developed an algorithm to model this and he predicts that Walker gets 73% of the vote. Which is obviously close enough to fall within any reasonable margin of error. One way or the other, it's going to be close.
But also, if he doesn't get in, it would be unprecedented for a player who gets this much support from the BBWAA to not get elected by the VC (or the Era Committees, as they're calling it now). So Walker might get in this year, but will almost certainly get in eventually.