[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

You absolutely can, and it is not hard. Most don't, because most people are putting money in when things look all sunny and happy because they follow the narrative of the moment. Many people then panic at the next downturn, and sell.

It takes about 30 seconds to determine if the market is generally high or generally low. We know in real time if things are generally speaking good or bad in the stock market. We know it's low right now. If you buy a diversity of blue chips and/or into properly managed index funds (which are not difficult to identify, less than 20 minutes of research) when it's low and hold, it is incredibly difficult to lose over the long run.

It does not take me to partake in insider trading to do this. It takes a little patience and common sense, no more. It barely takes any of one's time even.

Buying and holding blue chips and index funds is, I would absolutely agree, a winning strategy. I would doubt though that ex ante you can determine the optimal times to buy with any consistency. The vast majority of professionals out there can't do it, research shows. Let's suppose we each had a hypothetical amount to invest and we agreed on how to allocate it. I invest X percent of it at regular, predetermined intervals over a Y year period. Your timing is at your discretion over the same period. I bet you don't beat me.